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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 04-04-2012 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 04/04/2012 17:57
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
The primary reading of the Euro Zone's composite PMI indicated further contraction of the economic activity in the region. However, the final estimate of the PMI was above the preliminary reading of 48.7. The final PMI in the Euro Zone attained 49.6 in Q1, signaling on the mild contraction as compared to the preceding quarter reading of 47.2.

The greenback advanced against 17-nation currency on Tuesday as Federal Reserve cooled speculations for extra monetary stimulus. The US Dollar added 0.3% versus Euro to USD 1.3199 and slipped 0.2% versus Yen to JPY 82.64. Currently EUR/USD is trading at USD 1.3205 and USD/JPY is trading at JPY 82.68.

The gauge measuring British construction activity through a number of new orders unexpectedly surged in March, stimulating hopes UK has avoided recession. Construction PMI soared from 54.3 in February to 56.7 in previous month, the sharpest growth in almost two years. Analysts had predicted the reading to decline to 53.6.

The Swiss Market Index (SMI), a measure of the largest and most actively traded companies, sank 0.7 percent to 6,212.62 at 2:28 p.m. in Zurich. The volume of shares changing hands in SMI- listed companies was 4.8 percent higher than the average over the past 30 days, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The broader Swiss Performance Index lost 0.8 percent.

Japanese automobile sales soared by 78.2% in March on a yearly basis, reported the Japan Automobile Dealers Association. The government's subsidies for 'green' cars essentially contributed to the sales increase. Toyota was the leading company in sales of the new cars while Nissan and Honda occupied second and fourth place, respectively.
Dukascopy Technical Analysis
Daily maximum: 1.3232
Daily minimum: 1.3107
The common European currency advanced lower versus the American dollar after the FOMC announced yesterday that there is no need for the continuation of the Quantitative Easing; thus, the daily forecast mean at 1.3260 remained unttaped. Daily Resistance: 1.3328; 1.3425; 1.3482. Daily Support: 1.3174; 1.3117; 1.3020. Daily Bias: Neutral.

Daily maximum: 109.69
Daily minimum: 107.91
The euro slipped further against the Japanese Yen after hitting the daily market participant's target (109.41) as German monthly Factory orders showed a contraction (0.3% act./1.2% est.) and monthly retail sales declined more than expected (-0.1% act./0.1% est.). Daily Resistance: 110.03; 110.49; 111.17. Daily Support: 108.89; 108.21; 107.75. Daily Bias: Strongly bearish.

Daily maximum: 1.5909
Daily minimum: 1.5833
The British pound traded below the 1.5900 level today against the US dollar and left the daily forecast mean untapped (1.5939) as yesterday's FOMC comments on the US economy inspired optimism among investors the world-largest economy is on the right track to recovery. Daily Resistance: 1.6009; 1.6105; 1.6164. Daily Support: 1.5854; 1.5795; 1.5699. Daily Bias: Neutral.

Daily maximum: 82.93
Daily minimum: 82.10
The greenback appreciated versus the yen today, breaching the forecast mean at 82.55, after the FOMC announcement yesterday that the US economy is picking up. Daily Resistance: 83.35; 83.89; 84.80. Daily Support: 81.90; 80.99; 80.45. Daily Bias: Neutral.

Daily maximum: 0.9182
Daily minimum: 0.9102
USD/CHF traded above the 0.9100 though it slipped back to this level from 0.9182 today after the ISM non-manufacturing PMI declined more than it was expected (56.0 act./56.9 est.). Daily Resistance: 0.9139; 0.9182; 0.9250. Daily Support: 0.9028; 0.8960; 0.8917. Daily Bias: Neutral.
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Expert Commentary
"For EUR/USD our forecast for the 2Q is 1.32"
Carolin Hecht, Currency Strategist at Commerzbank, favors bullish scenario for the Euro/Greenback pair. >>

"For USD/JPY our forecast for the 2Q is 85"
Michael Sneyd, the FX strategist at the UK-based BNP Paribas branch, shares his views on the dollar-japanese yen currency pair. >>

"There is a triangular relationship between Euro, Dollar and Swiss Franc: if one goes down, the other goes up"
Gareth Berry on USD/CHF and EUR/CHF. >>
Press Review
Euro Zone Cuts Deeper Amid Criticism
Europe is pressing ahead with fiscal belt-tightening amid mounting criticism from economists and political leaders that the strategy is hurting the region's fragile economy.

Private Sector Adds 209,000 Jobs; Services Lead Growth
The private sector created 209,000 jobs in March, continuing the slow but steady rise in employment that has characterized the employment market for months.

Asia & Pacific
China surpasses US as world's biggest grocery market
China has become the world's largest market for food and grocery retail, surpassing the US, a study showed.
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Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility
The US Dollar has been relaively stable throughout the last five trading days due to anicipaion of FOMC Meeing Minutes release. For the most of the ime, however, greenback’s currency index has been hovering below a base value of 100.
Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
The current and six-month global economic outlooks improved for a second consecutive month in February. Gauges assessing the economic expectations advanced to 0.48 and 0.52, according to a poll conducted by Dukascopy Bank SA. The three-year economic outlook rose to 0.66 from 0.64 in January.
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Global Stock Market Review
S&P 500 index retreated on Tuesday as Federal Reserve muled the hopes for extra monetary stimulus.

Dow Jones Industrial Average
Dow Jones Industrial Average index dropped on Tuesday ater Fed executives expressed concerns about slower hiring and refused to purchase more bills to boost economy.

FTSE 100
FTSE 100 index extended losses on Wednesday driven by miners as commodity prices tumbled.
Commodity Overview
Precious Metals
Precious metals tumbled on Tuesday amid fading hopes for new rounds of quantitative easing in the world’s largest economies.
Industrial Metals
Industry metals were mixed on Tuesday amid broadly stronger US Dollar and weaker equities.
Energy commodities apart from natural gas were lower on Tuesday following the news on absence of any changes in the US monetary policy.
Rural commodities were mixed as grains moved higher while coffee and sugar declined amid stronger US dollar
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Trade Pattern Idea
USD/CHF Emerging Pattern: Channel Up
USD/CHF slowed near support level around 0.9080 and formed a Channel Up formation on the daily chart. The pattern has 65% and 40% magnitude within 122 bars.

The pair was trading in a tight range after it touched the support at 0.8938 for the first time. The Stochastic indicator is trying to rebound from its critical area, and is 75% now, which may lead to the pair possible recovery.  If the price increases, the forecast target for bullish traders might be around 0.9332, where the previous local high stands.

Economic Research
Commodity currencies: Australian dollar
The Dukascopy Bank research department continues its research on commodity currencies. In the first issue we have established that the relationship between CAD/AUD and commodities is rather strong, yet inverse. That is, the AUD strengthens against the CAD as commodity prices go up, and weakens when they go down. This allows us to expect the AUD exchange rates to be more closely linked with commodity price changes. Therefore we make the Australian dollar the subject of our current research.
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This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.


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