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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 31-07-2015 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 31/07/2015 15:18
Latest Expert Commentary
“Due to the fundamental basis the inflation outlook is very benign, and the low inflation environment should support bond market in order to prevent yields on rising too far.”
- Richard Franulovich, Senior Currency Strategist at Westpac, on US economy and Greenback
There is a better than 50% chance that the Fed will raise interest rates in September. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told that it should get ahead of the curve, as inflation will rise and labor market slack will end, whilst rates have been kept at near-zero levels for too long. Do you agree with this point of view? What outcomes for the US economy do you expect to see in case of the rate hike?
Dukascopy Technical Analysis

EUR/JPY remains stuck between 135.50 and 137.00
“It is still a story of data dependence. The growth number (this week), although not amazing, was still sound. Spanish unemployment and growth figures, and the reading of inflation this morning may also put a floor under the euro.” 
- Western Union (based on Reuters)
The Euro erased previous gains yesterday, as it dropped to a fresh one-week low. However, the losses were limited by the strong support cluster around 135.55, which is expected to cause the EUR/JPY cross to rebound today. 
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
Spanish economy continued to recover, German unemployed data disappoints 
The Spanish economy accelerated for the eighth consecutive quarter, after it recovered from the recession in the third quarter of 2013. Spain’s GDP in the second quarter rose at 1.0% quarter-over-quarter, in line with economist forecasts. On an annual basis, GDP advanced 3.1%, below analysts’ expectation of 3.2%. Positive preliminary figure indicated that the economy has been sustaining its growth momentum seen in the beginning of the year, when GDP expanded 0.9%. 
Expert Commentary
"Due to the fundamental basis the inflation outlook is very benign, and the low inflation environment should support bond market in order to prevent yields on rising too far."
- Richard Franulovich, Senior Currency Strategist at Westpac, on US economy and Greenback
There is a better than 50% chance that the Fed will raise interest rates in September. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told that it should get ahead of the curve, as inflation will rise and labor market slack will end, whilst rates have been kept at near-zero levels for too long. Do you agree with this point of view? What outcomes for the US economy do you expect to see in case of the rate hike? >>
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Press Review
Kim Cramer Larsson
Chinese equities – comeback or selloff?
The Chinese stock market has been hit hard this summer and has dropped more than 30% since its peak in June.
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: EUR
The Euro index was rather stable past week, and even spent the most of the time above the baseline. However on the last day after the disappointing German employment data and CPI the index fell below the historical level and ended the period with the 0.23% loss. The pound, which showed the upward trend since the release of the UK GDP on Tuesday, on the contrary, began to grow stronger against the background of the German news and became the leader of the period (+0.89%). 
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
June release
Professors' confidence considerably deteriorated in June compared to the preceding month. 
Global Stock Market Review
European equities retreated on low corporate earnings
Greece’s parliament passed new austerity measures Thursday, clearing the way for negotiations with its international creditors over a third bailout package, worth up to 86 billion euros. 
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Commodity Overview
Industrial Metals are Under Pressure
Copper prices dropped around 5%, or 11.5 cents amid the concerns over the Chinese economic health. The Chinese manufacturing PMI shrank for the fifth straight month, thus further raising worries over slowing demand from the world’s largest metals consumer. Metal's futures for delivery in the September month on the Comex slid 0.13% to trade at $2.382 per pound on Friday, following the session's low of $2.350, last recorded in 2009.
Trade Pattern Idea
AUD/USD 4H Chart: Channel Down 
In the near term the outlook is bearish. For now the currency should respect the falling resistance line at 0.7350; the target is the lower edge of the pattern at 0.72. >>

AUD/NZD 1D Chart: Double Top
Despite the confidence with which the technical studies were showing ‘buy’ signals, AUD/NZD broke through the lower boundary of the channel we discussed a week earlier. >>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 16:30 GMT.
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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