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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 03-09-2015 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 03/09/2015 14:32
Latest Expert Commentary
"I do not believe that the Fed is going to do anything monetarily in terms of more QE just to help the US stock market."
- Douglas C Bohrtwick, Managing Director at Chapdelaine & Co, on US economy and Greenback
China's stock market limped through another week of losses, sending ripples into U.S. market performance. The recent devaluation of the Yuan has already started creating tremors in the global markets, more precisely in the US economy, as it is triggering an imbalance in international trade. How do you evaluate the damage for the US economy, in case if China continues to face a deep slowdown?
Dukascopy Technical Analysis

EUR/JPY keeps testing cluster around 134.35
“In the latter part of August, the euro outperformed the Japanese yen. However, now that the initial rush of short-covering has taken effect, there is diminished likelihood that the downtrend in EUR/JPY will be extended.”
- Rabobank (based on FXStreet)
Despite rather substantial volatility, the European currency remained relatively unchanged against the Yen yesterday. Ultimately, the EUR/JPY added only two pips, suggesting another slump is likely to take place, due to the inability to restore the bullish momentum.
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
US private sector creates fewer jobs than expected, non-farm productivity revised up
US private sector added fewer jobs than expected in August, undermining expectations that the Fed will hike interest rates in September. According to the ADP National Employment Report, American companies employed 190,000 workers in the reported month, missing economists’ expectations for 200,000 new jobs. The report was published ahead of the government’s more comprehensive employment data due on Friday.
Expert Commentary
"I do not believe that the Fed is going to do anything monetarily in terms of more QE just to help the US stock market."
- Douglas C Bohrtwick, Managing Director at Chapdelaine & Co, on US economy and Greenback
China's stock market limped through another week of losses, sending ripples into U.S. market performance. The recent devaluation of the Yuan has already started creating tremors in the global markets, more precisely in the US economy, as it is triggering an imbalance in international trade. How do you evaluate the damage for the US economy, in case if China continues to face a deep slowdown?>>
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Press Review
Bloomberg
Is Slow Growth Now Normal for China?
A holiday in China gave investors respite from the market that’s been at the core of recent global volatility.
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: JPY
Even though the Japanese currency managed to show only a marginal 0.09% advance in value during the previous five-day trading period ended September 1, there were interesting developments to observe during that time.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
July release
Summertime sadness appeared to dominate among academia experts, as professors’ mood darkened in July amid worries over the Greek debt crisis and the country’s future within the Euro zone as well as China’s stock rout. However, the three-year economic sentiment indexes for all regions surged in the reported month, signaling economists’ confidence that the world economy will strengthen in the long-run. 
Global Stock Market Review
European stocks rebounded 6% last week as volatility waned
Equity markets across European countries surged considerably during the previous week ended Aug 28, following a disastrous Aug 17-21 week. Market volatility declined noticeably, while markets were also inspired by positive fundamentals from the US.
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Commodity Overview
Base Metals Surge Higher on Strong US Data
Copper rallied on Friday amid a rebound in Chinese stocks, following a drop to six-year low on Wednesday, when the sharp slump in China’s equities triggered investors’ fears that the country’s slowing economy would cut its demand for the red metal. The best-traded contract for delivery in December gained 1.75 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $2.3460 per pound on the Comex, marking the highest close since August 14, helping copper to add 1.65% over the week.
Trade Pattern Idea
NZD/USD 1H Chart: Channel Down
IThe current upward movement of the NZD/USD pair is approaching to the bearish correction territory, after it has managed to bounce back from the lower edge of the descending channel. >>

AUD/USD 1D Chart: Channel Down
The Aussie has been depreciating versus the Dollar since May of the previous year. Last time this currency pair touched any trend-line was in May 2015, when it peaked at 0.8164.>>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 16:30 GMT.
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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