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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 03-08-2015 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 03/08/2015 15:16
Latest Expert Commentary
“Due to the fundamental basis the inflation outlook is very benign, and the low inflation environment should support bond market in order to prevent yields on rising too far.”
- Richard Franulovich, Senior Currency Strategist at Westpac, on US economy and Greenback
There is a better than 50% chance that the Fed will raise interest rates in September. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told that it should get ahead of the curve, as inflation will rise and labor market slack will end, whilst rates have been kept at near-zero levels for too long. Do you agree with this point of view? What outcomes for the US economy do you expect to see in case of the rate hike?
Dukascopy Technical Analysis

EUR/JPY remains glued to 136.00
“The drop in the Greek stock market has put the euro under slight pressure.” 
- Nomura (based on CNBC)
Although the EUR/JPY cross experienced substantial volatility to the upside, the pair barely managed to close above the 136.00 major level. The Euro is likely to extend its gains and appreciate again today, with the weekly pivot point now acting as the immediate resistance at 136.30. From below the single currency is supported by the monthly PP and 20-day SMA around 135.71, but exchange rate is unexpected to fall back under 136.00. 
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
US labour costs rise at the slowest pace in 33, consumer confidence deteriorates
US labour costs rose at the slowest pace in 33 years in the second quarter on lacklustre gains in the private sector, putting a September interest rate increase into question. US workers’ compensation rose a mere 0.2% in the April-June period, below economists’ forecast for a 0.6% gain, and following the 0.7% increase in the first quarter. In annual terms, the employment cost index climbed 2%, compared with 2.6% recorded in the preceding three-month period. The Fed is closely watching wage figures as it moves closer to lifting interest rates from near-zero An acceleration in wages would signal the labour market is finally close to healthy, and could urge the Fed to act sooner rather than later to avoid an overheating economy. 
Expert Commentary
"Due to the fundamental basis the inflation outlook is very benign, and the low inflation environment should support bond market in order to prevent yields on rising too far."
- Richard Franulovich, Senior Currency Strategist at Westpac, on US economy and Greenback
There is a better than 50% chance that the Fed will raise interest rates in September. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told that it should get ahead of the curve, as inflation will rise and labor market slack will end, whilst rates have been kept at near-zero levels for too long. Do you agree with this point of view? What outcomes for the US economy do you expect to see in case of the rate hike? >>
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Press Review
Bloomberg
Oil Is on a Big Downtrend, When Will It End?
Averagejoeoptions.com's Todd Horwitz weighs in on the price of oil.
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: USD
Continuing the tendency of the previous period, the most of the time the Greenback has spent below the baseline. However the USD index managed to overcome the historical level and ended the week with the 0.1% gain. Thus the US dollar has overtaken most of the peer currencies, losing only the Kiwi (+0.26%), the Aussie (+0.52%) and the pound (+0.83%). 
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
June release
Professors' confidence considerably deteriorated in June compared to the preceding month. 
Global Stock Market Review
European equities rose on calm trading
Financial markets took a break from recent volatility, while global stock market generally expanded after a string of daily losses ended on Monday. Unfortunately, little significant economic data were reported globally, but among these low amount of news, the preliminary data released by Eurostat showed the inflation in the Euro Zone measured by the consumer price index stayed unchanged at 0.2%, but core inflation increased 0.9% from 0.8% in June. 
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Commodity Overview
Industrial Metals are Under Pressure
Copper prices dropped around 5%, or 11.5 cents amid the concerns over the Chinese economic health. The Chinese manufacturing PMI shrank for the fifth straight month, thus further raising worries over slowing demand from the world’s largest metals consumer. Metal's futures for delivery in the September month on the Comex slid 0.13% to trade at $2.382 per pound on Friday, following the session's low of $2.350, last recorded in 2009.
Trade Pattern Idea
USD/ZAR 1H Chart: Channel Up
USD/ZAR cross decided to restart its bullish trend on Monday, even though some signs of a recovery were observed already on Friday. >>

EUR/AUD 1D Chart: Channel Up
EUR/AUD has been bullish for the past four months, and the currency pair is likely to keep moving north. >>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 16:30 GMT.
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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