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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 27-04-2015 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 27/04/2015 14:48
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
US durable goods soar 4% in March amid robust demand for commercial aircraft
US durable goods, a bellwether of business spending, soared considerably more than expected in March.
 
Dukascopy Technical Analysis

AUD/USD falls back
“The U.S. dollar finished the week on seemingly fragile footing. The question investors are asking is if the steady drum beat of disappointing U.S. economic data turns the dollar's bull case on its head.” 
- Brown Brothers Harriman (based on Reuters)
Last Friday, the AUD/USD currency pair behaved almost according to the forecast. 
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
Business confidence in Germany improves, as Ifo business climate index at 10-month high
German business morale improved further in the current month, as business confidence surged to the highest level in 10 months, a sign the Euro zone’s number one economy is set to pick up steam on the back of massive stimulus and a favourable exchange rate.
Expert Commentary
"The foreign exchange market and energy volatility have clouded the inflation picture alongside the impact from the sales tax hike."
- Josh O’Byrne, FX Strategist at CITIgroup Global Market LTD, on Japanese Yen
We expect JPY to be relatively sidelined, with influence coming more from external factors. Investors remain split as to whether more easing will be forthcoming in the near term, but against the current backdrop we see a relatively high bar. >>
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Press Review
WBP Online
Germany - Safe Haven for Investors in 2014: Gov't Report
An all time-high €3.2 billion in foreign investment came to Germany last year as a record number of new investors put their money into the country's economy, a German trade agency said on Monday.
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: USD
The past period proved to be a bumpy ride for the USD Index, as it struggled and failed to recover from the previous week’s loses, ultimately winding up slightly below the baseline.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
March release
Although February is the shortest month of the year, it was full of economics and politics related news from all over the world. Given such a slew of data, it barely had a significant impact on global short and long term economic outlook of academia experts.

Global Stock Market Review
American stock market advanced on good corporate earnings
US share market continued its positive tendency despite the fact, that the economic reports were weak, with manufacturing growth slowing and durable goods orders falling.
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Commodity Overview
Natural Gas Prices Decline
Natural gas futures for May delivery dropped 2.9%, or 7.5 cents, and were traded at $2.531 per 1,000 cubic feet on April 24, before hitting Friday’s weakest level of $2.518 per mBtu, the lowest since April 15. During the week, natural gas for May delivery fell 3.91%, or 6.1 cents, amid forecasts for temperature increase.
Trade Pattern Idea
USD/RUB 4H Chart: Channel Down
Since the last week of February, the US Dollar has been trading under unexpected bearish pressure against the Russian Rouble. >>

USD/JPY 1D Chart: Ascending Triangle
Starting from July 2014, the US Dollar surged considerably against the Japanese Yen. >>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 16:30 GMT.
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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