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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 27-04-2015 - Morning

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 27/04/2015 08:44
Dukascopy Forex Community TV
Today
12:00 GMT Dukascopy Research Webinar >>
1. Expert Commentary on Japanese Yen from CITIgroup Global Market LTD
2. Market Research USD
3. Technical Analysis: Trade Pattern Idea
Dukascopy Technical Analysis

EUR/USD erodes monthly PP
“In the short term, the euro will probably firm a bit more.” 
- Atlantic Trust Private Wealth Management (based on Bloomberg)
Towards the end of last week, EUR/USD erased important resistance at 1.0811, represented by the monthly pivot point. 
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
Business confidence in Germany improves, as Ifo business climate index at 10-month high
German business morale improved further in the current month, as business confidence surged to the highest level in 10 months, a sign the Euro zone’s number one economy is set to pick up steam on the back of massive stimulus and a favourable exchange rate. The Ifo institute’s business climate index climbed for a sixth consecutive month to 108.6 from 107.9 in March. Analysts had forecast 108.4 points in the reported period.
Expert Commentary
"The foreign exchange market and energy volatility have clouded the inflation picture alongside the impact from the sales tax hike."
- Josh O’Byrne, FX Strategist at CITIgroup Global Market LTD, on Japanese Yen
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and the Bank of Japan have declared war on deflation. To your mind, what can we expect from the BoJ in terms of achieving its stated 2% inflation target? >>
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Press Review
CNBC
Euro still vulnerable: Strategist
Brian Singer, head of the dynamic allocations strategies team at William Blair, explains why he's shorting the euro.
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: EUR
The past period was hugely successful for the British pound. Spending the first three days at the base level, the GBP Index surged to 101.5 right after the UK BoE minutes were published. From there on, the Index held well above the baseline and maintained the leading position. The week was much less fortunate for the Asia-Pacific currencies and the Swedish krona.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
April release
One of the biggest stories on the global economic arena remains the weakness in commodity prices, particularly oil. Precipitous decline in crude oil over the past several months has been expected to be a net positive for many developed and emerging countries including the US, Europe, India, and China, which are net oil importers. However, oil and commodity exporters such as Canada and Australia have already been severely hit by decline in commodities.

Global Stock Market Review
European shares dropped as Greek default risk rises
Shares of major European companies declined significantly, pushing markets down, despite the preceding week’s gains. Investors responded to the increased risk of a Greek debt default with a massive selloff of the country’s government bonds.
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Commodity Overview
Silver Lost the Most Value
Gold dipped 0.12% or $1.50 last week. Yet, futures for June delivery inched higher 0.4% or $5.10, to $1,203.10 an ounce on Friday on the Comex. During April 17 gold prices were fluctuating between $1,183.50 an ounce, the lowest since April 14, and $1,224.50 an ounce, the highest since April 6. London gold prices fell 0.1% or $1 to $1,203.35 an ounce on Friday.
Trade Pattern Idea
USD/NOK 1H Chart: Channel Up
There are signs of the bullish channel emerging on the hourly chart of USD/NOK, as the currency pair bottomed out at 7.72. >>

USD/JPY 1D Chart: Ascending Triangle
Starting from July 2014, the US Dollar surged considerably against the Japanese Yen. >>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 16:30 GMT.
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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