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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 17-04-2014 - Morning

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 17/04/2014 07:20
Dukascopy Forex Community TV
Today
12:00 GMT Dukascopy Research Webinar. >> 
1. Marc Spaelti, Dukascopy Vice President and COO, discusses the impacts on GBP and Euro Periphery - the new Haven
2. The four economic charts of the day you really need to see
3. Data Release on Canada CPI
4. Technical Analysis: Trade Pattern Idea
 
14:00 GMT Visual JForex: Tips and tricks in Russian. >> 
 
 
Dukascopy Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
"It looks like people are pretty keen to go short on the U.S. dollar again, and that’s having positive ramifications across a number of currencies today."
- IG (based on Bloomberg)
The latest downward momentum did not prove to be strong enough to push the price beneath the monthly PP. Instead EUR/USD seems to be recovering from 1.3816/15, which could mean a test of the down-trend resistance line at 1.39 in the nearest future.
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"Food prices fell from 1.0% year-on-year to -0.5% year-on-year."
- Analysts from Societe Generale
It seems that investors neither paid attention to Fed’s pledge to start raising interest rates next year nor they took seriously Mario Draghi’s speech in Washington DC.
Expert Commentary
"We actually do think that EUR/CHF will go up in the end, thus in the long term we forecast the
pair to head towards 1.30."
- Jonathan Webb, Head of FX Strategy at Jefferies Bache, on Swiss Franc
In the longer term, we assume USD/CHF is heading back to 1.00, but our short term forecast stands at 0.90. >>
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Press Review
Politics
German study belittles optimism over Greek recovery
For the first time in four years, Greece has acquired fresh money from the bond market.
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: GBP
The Sterling index was one out of five major currencies that posted gains during the last five trading days, advancing 0.28%.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
VIDEO version
The six-month global economic expectations improved by 0.02 in March and reached the level of 0.64, while the three-year sentiment index decreased for the second consecutive month and stood at 0.68, a Dukascopy Bank SA poll showed.
Global Stock Market Review
U.S. Stocks lower on JPMorgan Chase Earnings Report
American stock market declined on week, dragged lower by Friday’s session amid news that JPMorgan had missed analysts' earnings estimates.
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Commodity Overview
Industrial Metals Rise on Deficit Concerns; Stronger Demand
Aluminum extended gains as talks that the market will face a deficit after more than decade-long surplus remained the dominating factor. Alcoa, the third biggest aluminum producer, said that producers outside China are likely to continue reducing output amid weak aluminum prices thus pushing the global market into a deficit this year.
Trade Pattern Idea
NZD/USD Emerging Pattern: Channel Down
The currency couple is sitting at the 50-hour SMA at 0.8624. >>

Weekly GBP/USD Emerging Pattern: Channel Up
There is a good chance that the support at 1.6638 is going to withstand the selling pressure. >>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick. In our new research we try and compare a few of the most popular techniques, and see if they are in fact suitable for forecasting currency exchange rates.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min, 1H, 4H and 1D time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 07:30 GMT.
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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