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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 02-05-2016 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 02/05/2016 15:11
Latest Expert Commentary
"The fundamentals in silver are looking a little bit better and there are a lot of production cutbacks coming in."
- Edward Meir, Senior Commodity Consultant at INTL FCStone, on silver
Some of the mines are closing; some of the zinc mines and lead mines that have silver as a derivative product are shutting down, so the fundamen-tals of the market look a bit better. The issue is that if prices rally very sharply it will impact jewellery consumption, since silver is very price sensitive on a jewellery side. There is a bit of a balance – if producers like the high prices there will be less demand. 
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Dukascopy Technical Analysis

AUD/USD climbs back over the 0.76 level
“The slightly softer China PMI releases over the weekend limit the prospects for a rebound in the Australian dollar into tomorrow's meeting.”
- Bank of New Zealand (based on The New Zealand Herald)
Upon putting the 20-day SMA to the test, the Australian currency erased all intraday gains and suffered an 18-pip loss, having approached the 0.76 major level on Friday. Even though the 20-day SMA remains the closest resistance, it is now reinforced by the weekly and the monthly PPs, making it even harder for the Aussie to appreciate against the Buckn.
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
US inflation slows in March
The Fed’s favourite inflation barometer slowed in March, falling from one-and-a-half-year peak, while consumer spending ebbed. The price index for personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy ticked up 0.1% in March, following a revised 0.2% gain. The rate of inflation over the past 12 months slid to 1.6%. In the previous two months, the core deflator was growing 1.7% year-on-year, the quickest pace since mid-2014. Inflation is being restrained by a strong Dollar and cheaper energy.
Expert Commentary
"I believe it may solely be what the Fed does and in some rights the Fed is not raising rates again."
- Peter Boockvar, Chief Market Analyst at Lindsey Group, on US Economy and Dollar
I suppose that the bear market in commodities is over. Therefore, I like the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar. We are just talking about three currencies that are highly manipulated by their central banks and what one does against another is that those three central banks are racing to the bottom. 
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Press Review
Bloomberg
Europe Suffering Banking Depression, Crisis: Weinberg
Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, and Jeff Degraaf, chairman at Renaissance Macro, examine the European economy and the need for fiscal stimulus as the banking industry faces an eighth straight year of crisis.
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: USD
The USD Index spent most of the period among the steady gauges, but took a hit at the yen’s surge on Thursday. The measure pared some losses soon after the drop, with the advance peaking after strong personal consumption data release, but failed to hold the momentum. Ultimately, the dollar posted weekly losses against most of its major peers, and its index ended the week with the second greatest decline.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
March Release
The general outlook for North America’s economic performance in the coming six months remained fairly positive according to the experts that took part in the last month’s poll, despite the Federal Reserve’s chair Janet Yellen keeping rather dovish stance on the rate increase matter, indicating that the global economic turmoil could have a devastating impact on the US economy, which would result in failing to bring the inflation to the Fed’s target level of 2%.
Global Stock Market Review
US stock indices close mostly lower compared to the previous week
Equity market in the US traded mostly down during the week ended April 29, however, the price changes were insignificant. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee made no move on interest rates this week sending mixed signals on the timing of its next hike. Seven weeks left until the next FOMC meeting in June, so the committee will have plenty of data to digest before it meets to set rates again.
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Commodity Overview
Precious Metals Continue Rising On Weaker USD
Silver’s performance was identical to gold’s, as the metal set off with a two-day rally after experiencing a slight decline on Monday, being boosted by softer American Dollar and signs of economic stability in China. Upon closing at $17.13 per ounce on Wednesday, futures for May delivery edged slightly lower, but remained at a two-month high, having stabilised at $16.90 per ounce, posting nearly 4% growth during the week.
Trade Pattern Idea
GBP/CAD 1H Chart: Channel Up
This currency pair keeps treading water inside the area of multiple moving average lines that are joined by the weekly and monthly pivot points between 1.8306 and 1.8365. >>

AUD/NZD 1W Chart: Ascending Triangle
AUD/NZD is well-positioned for a rally. For one, the currency pair has just breached a major five-year resistance trend-line. >>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 15:30 GMT.
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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