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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 31-08-2015 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 31/08/2015 14:27
Latest Expert Commentary
"In case the Fed will decide to act in September despite the mentioned circumstance in the market - it could deteriorate the sentiment and dampen the Japanese currency to 115."
- Osamu Takashima, Chief FX Strategist at Citibank, on Japanese Yen
As you may observe the historic data during the last two years when the Yen has found its peak, the depth of the adjustment was five figures. For instance, in January 2014, the Yen peaked at 105 levels, at the time the USD/JPY pair was put to 100 and the depth of the adjustment was five figures as well. In December, the pair has reached 121 levels, afterwards it was put to 116 in January of 2015.
Dukascopy Technical Analysis

EUR/JPY keeps gravitating towards 136.00
“Stable euro zone consumer price inflation in August eases pressure on the European Central Bank to consider increasing its stimulative efforts at its September policy meeting on Thursday, such as by front-loading more its QE programme.”
- HIS Global Insight (based on CNBC)
The Euro experienced some volatility on Friday, ultimately dropping 26 pips against the Yen. Even though losses were limited by the monthly PP, the 136.00 major level was still pierced. Nonetheless, a slight rebound over the weekend proved the importance of the given psychological level; whereas technical studies remain mixed, suggesting the given pair is to remain flat today.
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
US consumer spending rises 0.3% in July, personal income continues to increase
US consumer spending rose a bit in July as households purchased more automobiles, adding to further evidence of strength in the economy that could keep the door open to a Fed interest rate hike this year. The Commerce Department reported consumer spending—the lifeblood of the US economy, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US economic activity, climbed 0.3% following an upwardly revised 0.3% increase in June.
Expert Commentary
"In case the Fed will decide to act in September despite the mentioned circumstance in the market - it could deteriorate the sentiment and dampen the Japanese currency to 115."
- Osamu Takashima, Chief FX Strategist at Citibank, on Japanese Yen
As you may observe the historic data during the last two years when the Yen has found its peak, the depth of the adjustment was five figures. For instance, in January 2014, the Yen peaked at 105 levels, at the time the USD/JPY pair was put to 100 and the depth of the adjustment was five figures as well. In December, the pair has reached 121 levels, afterwards it was put to 116 in January of 2015.>>
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Press Review
Bloomberg
Inflation, China and the Fed's Rate Hike Dilemma
Bloomberg's Carl Riccadonna discusses the influence of inflation on the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve's decision-making process on interest rates.
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: USD
The past week began with the wild swings for almost all observed currencies. The dramatic fall of the US and European stocks on Monday led to the weakening of the commodity currencies. Meanwhile, the safe-heaven currencies have jumped to the maximum values of the period.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
July release
Summertime sadness appeared to dominate among academia experts, as professors’ mood darkened in July amid worries over the Greek debt crisis and the country’s future within the Euro zone as well as China’s stock rout. However, the three-year economic sentiment indexes for all regions surged in the reported month, signaling economists’ confidence that the world economy will strengthen in the long-run. 
Global Stock Market Review
European stocks rebounded 6% last week as volatility waned
Equity markets across European countries surged considerably during the previous week ended Aug 28, following a disastrous Aug 17-21 week. Market volatility declined noticeably, while markets were also inspired by positive fundamentals from the US.
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Commodity Overview
Gold Shines on Safe-Haven Status
Gold jumped to an over six-week high on Friday, as sharp drop in equity markets and diminishing expectations that the US Fed will raise interest rates in September spurred demand for the precious metal. Gold futures for delivery in December hit a midday peak of $1,167.90 per troy ounce on the Comex, before closing the session at $1,159.60.
Trade Pattern Idea
EUR/JPY 1H Chart: Double Bottom
EUR/JPY may confirm the double bottom pattern soon, in case bulls manage to consolidate the price above a substantial resistance zone at 136.70.>>

AUD/USD 1D Chart: Channel Down
The Aussie has been depreciating versus the Dollar since May of the previous year.>>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 16:30 GMT.
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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