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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 29-08-2016 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 29/08/2016 14:42
Latest Expert Commentary
"I think the likelihood of a deal among the OPEC producers is low, though we have not ruled that out entirely."
- Richard Mallinson, Geopolitical Analyst at Energy Aspects, on oil
The reality is that they failed at the Qatar meeting in April and at various other attempts throughout the first half of the year to reach a compromise that includes all the key members, in particular, Saudi Arabia and Iran, and I think all of those same problems still exist.
Dukascopy Technical Analysis

USD/CAD above 1.30 mark mid-Monday
“The case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months.”
- BNP Paribas (based on Bloomberg)
The US Dollar continues to score gains against the Canadian Dollar on Monday, as it surged on Janet Yellen’s announcement that the US Federal Reserve is most likely to raise rates.
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
US economy expands 1.1% in Q2; Trade gap narrows more than expected in July
The US economy expanded less than initially estimated in the Q2 of 2016, fresh data revealed on Friday. According to the second estimate released by the Commerce Department, the US GDP grew 1.1% over the Q2, whereas the first estimate suggested that the economy rose 1.2% in the reported quarter; however, the reading came in line with market forecasts. The US economy grew 0.8% in the Q1 and 1.0% in the first half of 2016. The downward revision was mainly driven by higher imports and weak spending by state and local governments.
Expert Commentary
"I take a slightly different view of fundamentals."
- Richard Mallinson, Geopolitical Analyst at Energy Aspects, on oil
When we look at oil demand growth this year, it has been relatively strong. There are concerns about the macroeconomic outlook, but we have seen and are still seeing healthy demand growth from many regions. On the supply side, what is really important is that non-OPEC supply is falling dramatically because of lower investment not on-ly in the US but in other parts of the world as well: China’s oil production has fallen below 4 million barrels a day; we have seen places like Mexico and Brazil recover from big declines.
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Press Review
September hike a reality?
Mike Ryan, UBS Chief Investment Strategist, and Margaret Vitrano, ClearBridge Investments Portfolio Manager, discuss the likelihood of two rate hikes this year from the Federal Reserve and where investors should look for opportunities in this environment.
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: USD
The USD Index was rather calm during the past week, fluctuating in a range of 99.1 to 100.8 points. On Tuesday, the index climbed above the baseline as its Swedish peer slipped on worse-than-expected CPI. The momentum only held until early Wednesday, when the measure started to slide down, and the USD Index found itself back in the negative area later the same day.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
June Release
While consumer spending, which remained pretty strong in the Q2, along with retail sales that expanded for the second straight month and better-than-expected non-farm payrolls reading managed to boost the US economy, overall, North America saw mixed results in June, as the six-month sentiment inched down slightly, while the three-year measure proved to continue its positive trend.
Global Stock Market Review
US stock market was mixed
American stock market posted some gains at the beginning of the week. The Federal Open Market Committee this week voted unanimously to keep rates unchanged and highlighted that the future rate hikes will likely be more gradual than the committee had forecast in March. The S&P’s 500 Index lost 0.3% to trade at 2,071.22 while Nasdaq, in turn, went down 0.99% to 4,800.33 mark.
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Commodity Overview
Precious Metals Pause as ‘Brexit’ Takes Lead
Silver, just like gold, slid during Friday’s trade. On the Comex, silver prices declined 19.6 cents, or 1.11%, to finish the session at $17.41 a troy ounce. Over the course of the whole trading week, silver futures still added as much as 0.41%, registering the third consecutive weekly surge thanks to strong gains registered during Thursday’s session, which had happened as a prospect for a rate hike by the Fed taking place this summer faded. 
Trade Pattern Idea
USD/RUB 4H Chart: Channel Up
The US Dollar is in an ascending channel pattern against the Russian Ruble, as the currency exchange rate is moving to the pattern’s upper trend line.>>

EUR/USD 1W Chart: Rectangle
EUR/USD has formed a well developed rectangle since the beginning of 2015, after taking serious dip in 2014.>>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 15:30 GMT.
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This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

Aaron Banks, co-founder at Leave.eu, talks about the main issues and talking points of the Brexit debate. He speaks with Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro on "Bloomberg ‹GO›."

EUR/JPY is seeing a small rebound, but is likely to struggle 114.15/80 and we should then see the currency pair come under pressure.” 

NZD/USD below weekly PP at 0.7256 on Monday


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