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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 26-03-2015 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 26/03/2015 17:01
Community Forecasts
Community member megajorko on USD/JPY
“I am sure there is big possibility that the Yen will start to gain power, but presently I am bearish.” >>
 
Dukascopy Technical Analysis

EUR/JPY crawled back up
“With the euro bouncing back and with stock indexes near seven-year highs, investors are starting to think that a lot of positive news is already reflected in lofty valuation levels and that it's time to book some profits.” 
- Barclays (based on CNBC)
On Wednesday, EUR/JPY negated Tuesday’s losses, as it edged up. However, the Euro did not appreciate substantially and was unable to reach the initial resistance. 
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
German, French economies strengthen as business climate improves
Economic recovery in the Euro zone seems to be gaining more growth momentum. This is clearly proved by improving indicators, such as yesterday’s PMI and today’s Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany.
Expert Commentary
"I guess the critical question is how much of the oil prices decline is indicative of supply side or demand side factors."
- Jonathan Cavenagh, Currency Strategist at Westpac, on Japan’s economy and Yen
believe Japanese interest rates increase is still a very long time away. The big question remains whether there will be a sustainable recovery in Japan. >>
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Press Review
FX Street
U.S. new home sales hit seven-year high in February
The euro lost over a big-figure since earlier tops around 1.1050, with EUR/USD now testing session lows in the 1.0940 area.
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: GBP
During past five trading days, the British Pound was a clear under-performer on the market.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
February release
The beginning of a new year was marked by unexpected decisions and moves from major central banks all around the world, which were triggered by the latest economic data and developments in global financial markets.

Global Stock Market Review
US shares strengthened last week despite weak fundamentals
Last week, stock market in the United States expanded notably, even though there were no any major economic data releases.
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Commodity Overview
Base Metals Lost Value
Aluminum premiums declined further on Friday 27 since the market participants were hesitant on future performance.
Trade Pattern Idea
USD/ZAR 1H Chart: Channel Down
Right now, being well-supported by the monthly S1 at 11.8380, USD/ZAR is moving in the direction of a strong resistance area near 12.1150, represented by the 200-hour SMA and, even more importantly, by the down-trend. >>

USD/SGD 1D Chart: Channel Up
USD/SGD has been in a strong up-trend since July 2014, after the currency pair had established a solid support at 1.24. >>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 16:30 GMT.
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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