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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 29-05-2015 - Morning

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 29/05/2015 08:10
Dukascopy Forex Community TV
Today
12:00 GMT Dukascopy Research Webinar >>
1. Fun Friday Quiz on Top News and Headlines 
2. US Prelim GDP QoQ Economic Data Release
3. Technical Analysis: Trade Pattern Idea
 
16:30 GMT Webinar on “Daily Technical Levels” by llolor >>
 
Dukascopy Technical Analysis

EUR/USD shows minor rebound from monthly low
“Janet Yellen’s remarks last Friday that she expected rates to rise this year and that the recent slowdown seen in Q1 is likely to be transitory, though some of the recent data seen from April does throw some elements of doubt into that belief.” 
- CMC Markets (based on WBP Online)
The EUR/USD pair attempts to recover at least some part of losses that have occurred since May 19. On Thursday, the cross jumped above the 55-day SMA nearest resistance line and closed just below 1.0950.
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
Euro zone consumer and business confidence remains stable in May
The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicator, a measure of business and consumer confidence, was stable in May, after slightly falling in April from near the highest level in four years in March. The index stood at 103.8 in the reported month, unchanged from April. Overall economic sentiment was mixed across the Euro zone. While it improved in Germany, France, and the Netherlands, it dropped in Italy and Greece.
Expert Commentary
"We expect the Yen to continue to depreciate, because even if the BoJ did not do anything yet, we still think that the risk is very high."
- Ester Maria Reichelt, FX Strategist at Commerzbank on Japan’s economy and Yen
Japan's economy grew faster than expected between January and March, boosting hopes that the economy is recovering from last year's recession. The economy expanded 0.6% in the period compared to the previous quarter, marking its second consecutive quarter of growth. In your opinion, what was the reason behind it and what development do you expect from the Japanese economy further? >>
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Press Review
Gary Gordon
The Fed Issue No One Wants To Discuss
The average economic expansion since the 1940s is roughly five years. The current recovery? We are now at the six-year mark. Yet there’s a problem with today's environment that few are willing to talk about; that is, historically...
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: GBP
Giving leadership to the American Dollar, the British currency traded in the green zone for most of the time during the period from last Wednesday until Tuesday of this week. As a result, the only decline of the Sterling was posted against the Greenback. On the other hand, the common European currency used to be the major under-performer during the previous week (-0.92%); therefore, the Pound managed to gain 1.54% against the Euro.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
April release
All but one region faced a decline of professors’ sentiment in April due to intense headwinds blowing in every part of the world. Yet, Europe appeared to be a bright spot, as its short-term economic outlook improved in the reported month, despite political and economic turmoil on the continent and British Isles. The North America was the biggest downside contributor to the global economic outlook, as the region saw the biggest deterioration in economic forecasts, as both six-month and three-year economic sentiment indexes fell dramatically.

Global Stock Market Review
European stocks climbed on negations over Greece
The last week of May was strong for European stock market, on hopes that Greece debt negotiations will be resolved in the nearest perspective. After the negotiations of Greek, German and French heads of state which was held on Thursday, a Greek government spokesperson expressed optimism that a cash-for-reforms deal could be reached with creditors within 10 days.
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Commodity Overview
Gold Weakens During The Week
Gold futures fell 3% to $1,205.88 per troy ounce last week on the international market, while on the MCX gold gave up 1.39%. Gold for June delivery weakened on the Nymex and was traded at $1,204.90 per troy ounce last week amid deferred interest rate by the Federal Reserve till the end of the year.
Trade Pattern Idea
EUR/CAD 1H Chart: Channel Up
EUR/CAD bottomed out on May 26, being unable to pierce through support at 1.3430, which has been proving its significance throughout May. >>

CAD/JPY 1D Chart: Channel Up
After the rollercoaster experienced between October and February CAD/JPY is acting more reserved now. >>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 16:30 GMT.
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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