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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 20-02-2017 - Morning

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 20/02/2017 09:47
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Technical Analysis
EUR/USD returns to 1.06 level
"Germany has a significant bilateral trade surplus with the U.S., a material current account surplus, but it has not engaged in persistent one-sided intervention in the foreign exchange market."
- Mario Draghi, ECB (based on Bloomberg)
The common European currency had retreated to the 1.06 level against the US Dollar on Monday morning. At that level the currency exchange rate managed to find support, as the 55-day SMA, which is located exactly at 1.06, is now also supported by the weekly PP at 1.0604.
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Fundamental Analysis
UK retail sales slump 0.3% in January
Sales in the United Kingdom dropped for the third straight month in January, indicating that consumers started feeling the pressure of higher prices and slower wage growth. According to the official data published by the British Office for National Statistics on Friday, retail sales slid 0.3% over the previous month, coming in short of analysts’ expectations for a 1.0% increase and following a downwardly revised 2.1% slide in December.
Expert Commentary
"For the end of the first quarter this year, I see the Euro rallying to 1.15 versus the US Dollar, while the EUR/JPY currency pair I expect to trade at 115."
- Christian Apelt, FX strategist at Helaba, on Euro zone and EUR
I suppose that the current trend in consumer prices will improve in the nearest future; however, this improvement will be relatively modest given the fact that the base effect of oil price and the Euro exchange rate are not expected to rise a lot.>>
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Press Review
Bloomberg
CIBC's Stretch Says Investors Fear China Bubble Implosion
CIBC Head of FX Strategy Jeremy Stretch discusses the Chinese banking sector, Japan's trade numbers and his outlook for the yen.
Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
June Release
Having experienced a completely unexpected United Kingdom’s vote to leave the European Union in the referendum that took place on June 23, the global economy is now even further from seeing a continuous upturn, especially in the wake of weak EM performance, economic and political challenges in Europe along with ongoing uncertainty over the upcoming elections in the United States.
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Trade Pattern Idea
GBP/USD 1H Chart: Channel Down
Despite previous bullish signals on the hourly time-frame, GBP/USD entered a bearish market and stuck around the ultimate bottom of 1.1996 it had established mid-January.>>
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30M, 1H, 4H and 1D time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 07:30 GMT.
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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