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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 26-07-2016 - Morning

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 26/07/2016 09:07
Dukascopy Forex Community TV
Today
08:00 GMT Option Levels in Live Trading
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11:00 GMT Market Analysis Live in 3 Different Time Frames
12:00 GMT Everything You Wanted to Know About Markets
13:00 GMT Current Week in Focus
13:30 GMT 1 Pip Box Renko Price Action Scalping
14:00 GMT Currencies of Interest
15:30 GMT Reviewing Impact of News on FX Market
16:00 GMT Daily Technical Levels

Technical Analysis
GBP/USD risks breaking the 1.31 psychological support
"Market expectations of the Fed raising interest rates by the end of this year have increased significantly over the last two weeks, and it is likely that the Fed could be conveying a more optimistic message about the U.S. economy."
- National Australia Bank Ltd. (based on Bloomberg)
Once again the GBP/USD currency pair failed to fall below the 1.31 major level, remaining almost completely unchanged on Monday. However, the Cable is expected to experience more pressure today, with risks of the 1.31 mark getting breached now higher.
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Fundamental Analysis
German business morale deteriorates in July after Brexit vote
German business sentiment fell less than expected in July, following the United Kingdom’s vote to leave the European Union, survey results from the Munich-based Ifo Institute showed on Monday. The Ifo Business Climate Index dropped to 108.3 on a monthly seasonally adjusted basis in July, down from the previous month’s reading of 108.7 points, whereas market analysts anticipated a steeper decrease to 107.4 in the reported month.
Expert Commentary
"The US economy will be definitely impacted by the UK’s decision to leave the EU; however, not directly."
- Brett Ryan, US Economist at Deutsche Bank, on US economy and Greenback
According to the ISM’s recent reports, services sector looks solid indeed; however, it is still not at the great level. As concerns the ISM manufacturing index, we have seen a little bounce recently, but at the moment we do not see much further improvement for a couple of reasons. Firstly, CAPEX investment is very weak, and secondly, there is a large inventory overhang in the manufacturing space.>>
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Press Review
Bloomberg
TD Ameritrade's Quirk on U.S. Politics, Fed, Brexit
Steve Quirk, trader group senior vice president at TD Ameritrade, discusses the state of the U.S. economy, how investors cut through the noise from the conventions and the post-Brexit market rally.
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: USD
The yen became the leader of the previous week, posting the second highest index growth, but holding above its peers throughout the period. The measure surged to the week’s absolute high of 3.7 points after the BoJ interest rate decision, but fell back the following day, yielding the first place to the GBP Index.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
June Release
Having experienced a completely unexpected United Kingdom’s vote to leave the European Union in the referendum that took place on June 23, the global economy is now even further from seeing a continuous upturn, especially in the wake of weak EM performance, economic and political challenges in Europe along with ongoing uncertainty over the upcoming elections in the United States.

Global Stock Market Review
European shares traded in a negative environment
Global stocks declined during the week in volatile trade as markets are awaiting the Brexit referendum. A clear swing in opinion polls in favor of the Leave camp put markets on edge this week. The Brexit campaign will resume on Monday.
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Commodity Overview
Precious Metals Pause as ‘Brexit’ Takes Lead
Gold futures slipped during the last trading day of the previous week, though still finishing the session near Thursday’s 22-month high, on the back of strong market volatility ahead of Britain’s June 23 referendum on its membership in the EU coupled with indications that the Federal Reserve will hardly hike rates in the months to come. On Thursday, the bullion rose to $1,318.90, hitting the highest mark since August 2014, while on Friday futures of the precious metal eased, edging 0.28%, or $3.60, lower, to eventually close the week at $1,294.80 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Trade Pattern Idea
CAD/CHF 1H Chart: Falling Wedge
The general outlook on the pair is bearish, as CAD/CHF has just left the ascending channel. At the same time, most of the hourly and four-hour indicators are giving ‘sell’ signals.>>

HKD/JPY 1D Chart: Channel Down
HKD/JPY remains in a strong down-trend since it topped out at 16.20 last year. And while the multi-month outlook on the currency pair is strongly bearish, the upside risks are growing.>>
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Economic Reseach
Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick. In our new research we try and compare a few of the most popular techniques, and see if they are in fact suitable for forecasting currency exchange rates.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30M, 1H, 4H and 1D time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 07:30 GMT.
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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