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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 29-06-2015 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 29/06/2015 16:00
Latest Expert Commentary
“In case the Fed will tighten the policy this year, then there will be some negative response from the equity market.”
- David Sloan, Senior Economist at 4CAST, on Equity market
Analysts at Barclays have recently released a Global Outlook, forecasting a rather modest 4% gains for global equities. Larry Kantor, Managing Director and Head of Research, says: „We see a flat US market but better prospects in non-US ones... the market continuing to oscillate around the 2100 level for the S&P500, as slowing EPS growth and prospects for higher interest rates combine with a full valuation.” Do you support those forecasts?
Dukascopy Technical Analysis

EUR/JPY attempts to retake the 136 area
“The foreseeable insolvency of Greece is deeply regrettable. Greece now needs to immediately introduce a new electronic currency as legal tender and must stop all euro payment orders to other countries abroad and impose capital controls.” 
- Ifo Institute for Economic Research (based on WBP Online)
Last Friday, the EUR/JPY cross suffered a small loss, but settled above the immediate support, despite reaching the second one. 
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
US consumers’ mood brightens in June, with sentiment index hitting 5-month high
US consumers’ mood brightened at the end of the month, reinforcing the view the world’s number one economy was likely to gather momentum in the foreseeable future. The University of Michigan’s final reading of the consumer sentiment index increased to 96.1 points, compared with the markets’ expectations for 94.6 and following a revised reading of 90.7 points in May. The final June reading was not only the second highest so far this year, but also marked the second best print since January 2007, as the gauge saw its strongest monthly increase since December 2013.
Expert Commentary
"In case the Fed will tighten the policy this year, then there will be some negative response from the equity markets."
- David Sloan, Senior Economist at 4CAST, on Equity market
Analysts at Barclays have recently released a Global Outlook, forecasting a rather modest 4% gains for global equities. Larry Kantor, Managing Director and Head of Research, says: „We see a flat US market but better prospects in non-US ones... the market continuing to oscillate around the 2100 level for the S&P500, as slowing EPS growth and prospects for higher interest rates combine with a full valuation.” Do you support those forecasts? >>
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Press Review
CNBC
Greece crisis rocks markets
CNBC's Michelle Caruso-Cabrera reports on the fallout from this weekend's failure to reach an agreement between Greece and its creditors.
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: USD
The Greenback managed to overcome a series of setbacks, and its index spent the past week above the baseline, becoming the best performer of the period with a 1.58% gain. The USD Index held the leadership during almost the whole period, however, it lost the completion to the yen over the weekend.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
May release
Surprisingly, the global three-year economic outlook index soared by 0.13 points in May, with the major contributor to the increase being professors’ optimistic outlook for Asia-Pacific’s economy.
Global Stock Market Review
European shares were mixed on Greek negotiations
During the last week of June, European stock market was unsettled, as Greek debt crisis remains unresolved. After months of talks, negotiations on extending the Greek bailout will continue this weekend with the hope of reaching a last-minute deal. Meanwhile, a 30 June deadline looms for a critical 1.54 billion euro debt repayment to the International Monetary Fund.
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Commodity Overview
Gold Gains Over the Week Despite Monthly Losses
Gold were little changed by the end of last week ending June 19, fluctuating near a monthly high since investors changed their expectations over a higher US interest rate together with the mounting fears about a potential Greek debt default. Gold futures for delivery in August settled at $1,201.90 per troy ounce on Friday, being down 10 cents, or 0.01% on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Trade Pattern Idea
USD/SGD 1H Chart: Channel Up
The USD/SGD currency pair is testing the lower trend-line of the bullish pattern at the moment. >>

NZD/USD 1D Chart: Channel Down
In addition to the bearish channel on the four-hour chart of NZD/USD reviewed a little earlier today, there is a downward-sloping channel emerging on the daily chart as well. >>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 16:30 GMT.
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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