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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 16-04-2014 - Morning

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 16/04/2014 07:12
Dukascopy Forex Community TV
Today
09:00 GMT Visual JForex: Tips and Tricks in French. >> 
 
12:00 GMT Dukascopy Research Webinar. >> 
1. Latest Release of Community Forecasts
2. Market Research on GBP
3. Technical Analysis: Trade Pattern Idea
 
14:00 GMT Introduction to JForex in Italian. >> 
 
14:30 GMT Visual JForex: Tips and tricks in Arabic. >> 
 
Dukascopy Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
"One of the things we noticed was continued deterioration in Ukraine, which the market hasn’t really fully priced in."
- Bank of New York Mellon (based on Bloomberg)
At the moment EUR/USD is testing the support at 1.3816/15 represented by the monthly and weekly pivot points. If this level is breached, the next significant concentration of demand is expected to be at 1.3787—20 and 55-day SMAs. However, there is still a high chance of further depreciation of the Euro.
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The [German] economy had an excellent start to the new year, gaining new momentum."
- Carsten Brzeski, an ING chief economist
After a slew of disappointing data from Germany during the last several weeks, another report suggested that we can see more weakness in the foreseeable future.
Expert Commentary
"We actually do think that EUR/CHF will go up in the end, thus in the long term we forecast the
pair to head towards 1.30."
- Jonathan Webb, Head of FX Strategy at Jefferies Bache, on Swiss Franc
In the longer term, we assume USD/CHF is heading back to 1.00, but our short term forecast stands at 0.90. >>
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Press Review
Economy
Yellen says Fed mulling stricter rules for Wall Street
The U.S. Federal Reserve is considering further steps to force big banks to hold more capital, and sees a case for other stability-enhancing measures for more shadowy areas of Wall Street as well, Fed Chair Janet Yellen...
Community Forecasts
Bushidoleaf on EUR/USD
"Currently, EUR/USD is trading above 22days SMA. Parabolic and Stochastic also indicate bullish momentum. This indicates prices are likely to re-test previous resistance of 1.39667 level. However, prices have already breach 2 Fibo levels, it would be logical to expect some form of retracement early on in the week before prices continues its bullish run."
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
VIDEO version
The six-month global economic expectations improved by 0.02 in March and reached the level of 0.64, while the three-year sentiment index decreased for the second consecutive month and stood at 0.68, a Dukascopy Bank SA poll showed.
Global Stock Market Review
U.S. Stocks lower on JPMorgan Chase Earnings Report
American stock market declined on week, dragged lower by Friday’s session amid news that JPMorgan had missed analysts' earnings estimates.
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Commodity Overview
Industrial Metals Rise on Deficit Concerns; Stronger Demand
Aluminum extended gains as talks that the market will face a deficit after more than decade-long surplus remained the dominating factor. Alcoa, the third biggest aluminum producer, said that producers outside China are likely to continue reducing output amid weak aluminum prices thus pushing the global market into a deficit this year.
Trade Pattern Idea
USD/CAD Emerging Pattern: Rising Wedge
After a slide to a three-month low the pair managed to change its trend by entering a rising wedge pattern. >>

Weekly GBP/USD Emerging Pattern: Channel Up
There is a good chance that the support at 1.6638 is going to withstand the selling pressure. >>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick. In our new research we try and compare a few of the most popular techniques, and see if they are in fact suitable for forecasting currency exchange rates.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min, 1H, 4H and 1D time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 07:30 GMT.
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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