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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 27-07-2016 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 27/07/2016 15:03
Community Forecast
megajorko on GBP/USD
“Everyone is expecting the Brexit referendum this week so anything can happen to the cable including decline to 1.35 and total rocket jump to 1.60”.
Dukascopy Technical Analysis

EUR/JPY surges on BoJ stimulus hopes
“Market pricing has never been so certain of more easing, so if the BoJ doesn't act, it'll be a really big disappointment.”
- Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities (based on Bloomberg)
The EUR/JPY cross closed just three pips below the 115.00 major level on Tuesday, unable to maintain trade under the second support area. Nevertheless, the Yen lost some ground, amid hopes of the BoJ implementing more stimulus later this week. As a result, the pair touched the 117.00 mark, which is also reinforced by the weekly PP, but erased approximately half of those gains.
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
New home sales rise to highest since 2008; US shoppers ignore Brexit vote
New US single-family home sales rose more than expected in June, fresh figures from the US Census Bureau showed on Tuesday. Sales of newly built homes grew 3.5% to a seasonally adjusted rate of 592,000 units during the reported month, posting the strongest reading since February 2008 and surpassing market analysts’ expectations for an increase to 560,000 units. 
Expert Commentary
"The US economy will be definitely impacted by the UK’s decision to leave the EU; however, not directly."
- Brett Ryan, US Economist at Deutsche Bank, on US economy and Greenback
First of all, outside of financial contagion, uncertainty over the housing sector plays itself out, which will probably keep Central banks cautious. Secondly, the ‘Brexit’ may weigh on business sentiment, as many firms based in the US have operations in the UK. >>
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Press Review
Bloomberg
How Do Investors Navigate Japanese Stimulus?
TIAA Global Asset Management Portfolio Manager Joe Higgins discusses the Japanese economy, fiscal stimulus and Fed policy.
Market Research
Relative Currency Strength and Volatility: USD
The past period was marked by the USD/JPY components’ notable fall to the negative area. Continuing the past week’s trend, the components started the period below zero and after a brief mid-period recovery fell back with the BoJ interest rate decision. Thus the average correlations between USD/EUR and USD/JPY lost almost 0.3 points compared with the previous readings. Meanwhile, most of the other USD/EUR components strengthened.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
June release
The positive momentum in the Asia-Pacific region seems to have continued in June even despite soft global demand and signs that the Chinese investment-led recovery is coming to an end, as both short and long run sentiment indices soared in the measured month.
Global Stock Market Review
Japanese shares traded down
The Nikkei 225 benchmark index slumped 2.6% to hover around 15,599.66 points at the end of the trading week ended on June 17. Moreover, almost all sectors of the gauge posted a decline, with agriculture and food & beverage industries leading the drop by 3.7% and 2.5%, respectively. 
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Commodity Overview
Oil Finishes Relatively Flat; ‘Brexit’ in Focus
Brent oil futures for delivery in July also jumped by the end of Friday’s trade to settle at $49.17 a barrel on the ICE Futures Exchange, up $1.98, or 4.2%, from Thursday’s close, which saw Brent prices dropping to the level of $46.94 per barrel, the mark not seen since May 12. In spite of Friday’s gains, on the week London-traded Brent oil futures failed to post significant gains, rising just 0.6% on global worries about possible consequences of the UK leaving the EU. In the meantime, Brent futures still rose roughly 7% so far this month.
Trade Pattern Idea
CHF/SGD 1H Chart: Channel Down
The Swiss Franc is in a channel down pattern against the Singapore Dollar, as the currency exchange rate has confirmed the pattern’s upper trend line for the second time just recently.>>

HKD/JPY 1D Chart: Channel Down
HKD/JPY remains in a strong down-trend since it topped out at 16.20 last year. And while the multi-month outlook on the currency pair is strongly bearish, the upside risks are growing.>>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick. In our new research we try and compare a few of the most popular techniques, and see if they are in fact suitable for forecasting currency exchange rates.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 14:30 GMT.
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

New Zealand’s trade surplus shrank more than expected in June as the value of both imports and exports slipped. Auckland’s trade surplus reached $127 million in June, nearly matching the $128 million forecast by economists, state-run Statistics New Zealand said in a report. June was the sixth consecutive trade surplus for the country. The surplus widened to $358 million in May, the highest in more than a year. 


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