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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 24-11-2015 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 24/11/2015 15:39
Community Forecast
Racer X on EUR/USD:
“The ECB President Mario Draghi has stated that ECB will do what it must to spur price gains, including monetary easing. Taking into account the FED's Janet Yellen saying that a rate hike announcement is possible in mid-December, I would expect the EUR/USD to fall around the yearly low.”
Dukascopy Technical Analysis

AUD/USD on the verge of reconfirming the down-trend Dukascopy
“If the RBA is going to act [on its easing bias], it seems sensible to wait for the Q4'15 CPI report that's released on January 27 before doing so. This means that the next live meeting is the first meeting of 2016 on February 2.”
- RBS (based on WBP Online)
As was anticipated, the Australian Currency bounced back from the down-trend yesterday, losing a total of 40 pips over the day.
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
Home resales decline; Fed to hike rates 4 times next year
Sales of existing homes in the US dropped last month from the second highest level since 2007 as a persistent shortage of properties limited momentum in residential real estate. Nevertheless, the housing market remains on a solid footing, with sales for the whole year set for the best performance in eight years. Thus, housing is expected to take up some of the slack from a chronically sluggish manufacturing sector. US home resales declined by 3.4% to an annualized rate of 5.36 million units in October, against economists’ expectations of 5.4 million and down from September’s 5.55 million.
Expert Commentary
"We saw capital outflows over much of the past year because people have turned more negative on prospects for future currency appreciation."
- Mark Williams, Chief Asia economist at Capital Economics Ltd, on Chinese economy and CNY
NBS data published last week showed consumer inflation moderated more than expected in October, while PPI extended a decline to a 44th straight month, sliding 5.9% year-on-year. In your opinion, what may be the main reasons for such sharp drop in China’s PPI?>>
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Press Review
Ken Veksler
When there's no safe harbour left where do safe haven flows go?
Geopolitical tensions are front and centre once again in what is perhaps not the most shocking development given how the overall situation has been progressing in recent days.
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: USD
The period was fairly smooth for the observed indexes, as most of them did not sway farther than +/-0.5% from the baseline. A notable exception was the Aussie’s gauge that rallied throughout the second half of the week and posted a 2% growth over its Monday value.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
October release
The sentiment of professors continued to recover going into the final quarter of the year after a precipitous fall in August when China’s equity market crashed, causing a spillover effect across the globe. Nevertheless, slowing growth in emerging economies, particularly in China, remains a topical issue on the agenda of economists and central bankers.
Global Stock Market Review
US stock market managed to return positive tendency
American stocks traded in the green territory during the last week, with the all stock indexes managing to rebound, as investors were comfortable with growing signs of a US Federal Reserve interest rate hike in December. The US Consumer Price Index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in October while core prices, excluding food and energy, also gained 0.2%. Real average hourly earnings climbed 0.2% in October and were up 2.4% from October 2014.
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Commodity Overview
Precious Metals at Record Lows on Rate Hike Expectations
Gold continued its downward trajectory, finishing the week near the lowest level since February 2010, as traders rushed to sell the metal on the back of bolstered expectations for a December rate hike by the Fed. Bullion futures for delivery in December plummeted 0.15%, or $1.60, to settle at $1,076.30 a troy ounce by the end of Friday’s trade on the Comex, after falling to $1,062.00 on Wednesday, a level not seen in almost six years, following the minutes of the Fed’s October meeting, showing that most members of the FOMC expect a rate hike next month.
Trade Pattern Idea
CHF/JPY 1H Chart: Channel Down
Despite an attempt to grow from the lower boundary of the pattern, the Swiss Franc is still unable to leave the vicinity of 120.40 area.>>

USD/SEK 1D Chart: Rectangle
The US Dollar has approached the upper edge of the horizontal channel it has been trading within since the beginning of this year.>>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 14:30 GMT.
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This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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