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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 27-05-2016 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 27/05/2016 15:03
Latest Expert Commentary
"I would not agree with this point of view. We just went through one of the longest bear markets for about six years long, with negative interest rates in about 35% of the countries worldwide which is a part of gold prices."
- Garrett Goggin, Associate Editor at Gold Stock Analyst, on Gold
Thus, we believe that bear markets are behind us, and that gold is going to be moving to the upside for the next few years. However in a shorter-term of the next months to half-year, we are looking for a short-term pullback. The sentiment is pretty bullish right now and commercials are very short. 
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Dukascopy Technical Analysis

USD/CAD retakes 1.30
“We will see some consolidation in the [US] dollar after the recent gains with expectations of a June hike still in play.”
- Nomura (based on Reuters)
As was expected, the 55-day SMA managed to prevent the USD/CAD currency pair from edging lower yesterday, which resulted in the Buck closing only with a 44-pip loss. Consequently, the Greenback should now undergo a correction and climb back over the 1.30 major level, with the monthly R1 and the weekly PP forming a strong resistance cluster circa 1.3025. 
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
UK economy slows down as production and business investment contract
British economic growth lost steam in the first quarter on the background of unexpected contraction in business investment. The second reading of Britain’s first-quarter GDP figures confirmed the loss of momentum in the economic recovery. The Office of National Statistics announced that the economy grew 0.4% in the first quarter, slower than the 0.6% pace in the last three months of 2015, the same as the first estimate given in April.
Expert Commentary
"When gold is high silver is moving also. The reason is the divertive of gold that is more volatile than gold’s. Thus, if gold moves, silver is going to move higher on a percentage basis."
- Garrett Goggin, Associate Editor at Gold Stock Analyst, on Gold
We focus is on the miners, and on silver miners in general, and here we are with a price which is going to surpass $14 per ounce. This move is profitable for the silver miners, and we expect large silver’s rally. Thus, I would agree with that opinion.
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Press Review
Bloomberg
Countdown to Brexit: is Sterling Priced in?
It’s one of the biggest dilemmas facing currency managers: how to protect against the fallout from the U.K. leaving the European Union without losing money should it vote to remain.
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: EUR
The Australian Dollar was the worst performer of the week, as it fell down to 89.8 right after the RBA Governor Glenn Stevens speech at the Trans-Tasman Business Circle briefing in Sydney, about the current inflation target. Governor Stevens backed the actual 2% - 3% preferred inflation range, in contrast to some economists calling for a lower target due to recent financial market imbalances.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
April Release
A potential immediate devastating effect of the ’Brexit’ on overall performance of the European economic area is expected to fade in the next three years, as most of the experts said they would see the economic performance of the region being fairly positive in a longer term, as the sentiment index rose 0.07 points last month on the back of expectations for a pickup in domestic demand and the effectiveness of the current ECB policy.
Global Stock Market Review
US stock indices close mostly lower compared to the previous week
The US stocks Global equities were nearly unchanged on the week as the market grappled with the possibility of a rate hike from the US Federal Reserve in the coming months. Minutes of the April Federal Open Market Committee meeting make clear that the US Federal Reserve would like to raise rates at either its June or July meeting, if conditions allow.
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Commodity Overview
Base Metals Lower on Stronger Greenback
Aluminum led gains on Friday, hitting its highest mark in a week, as investors closed out short positions ahead of the weekend; however, the metal paired gains towards the end of the session on Friday on the back of a plunge in other metals amid a firmer Greenback. Three-month metal’s contract added 0.1% on the London Metal Exchange by the end of trade, finishing at $1,547 a tonne after touching a level of $1,577, a mark not seen since early May.
Trade Pattern Idea
EUR/CAD 4H Chart: Triangle
EUR/CAD continues to form a long-term triangle pattern, which dates back to March of this year. Current phase of the pair’s development indicates to a recovery from lower upward-sloping boundary placed 1.4448 for the moment.>>

EUR/SGD 1W Chart: Channel Down
At the moment EUR/SGD is bullish, as the currency pair is guided north by the trend-line that was established back in 2015, currently at 1.53. >>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 15:30 GMT.
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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