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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 29-05-2015 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 29/05/2015 15:16
Latest Expert Commentary
“At least at first sight, the impact of climate change will be more pronounced on Arabica coffee than on Robusta, as the latter is typically more heat tolerant.”
- Dr. Michaela Kuhl, Analyst at Commerzbank AG on agriculture
Arabica coffee accounts for about 70% of the global coffee market share, but is highly sensitive to increases in temperature. Regional and joint studies have shown that Arabica coffee cultivation may be severely affected in the future.
Dukascopy Technical Analysis

EUR/JPY to test 136 once more
“Greece continues to be a constant headache for the euro zone.” 
- Kathy Lien, BK Asset Management (based on CNBC)
Yet again the Euro advanced against the Japanese Yen. The EUR/JPY cross reached as high the 136 psychological level, which caused the pair to inch down and close trade at 135.70. Nevertheless, we expect the single currency to gain those 30 extra pips today, despite mixed technical indicators. 
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
US initial jobless claims unexpectedly rise last week, pending home sales at 9-year high
The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits unexpectedly jumped last week, but remained at levels consistent with an improving labour market. Initial claims for unemployment aid increased 7,000 to a seasonally adjusted 282,000 for the week ended May 23, according to the Labor Department. The number of claims for the prior week were revised to show 1,000 more applications received than previously reported.
Expert Commentary
"At least at first sight, the impact of climate change will be more pronounced on Arabica coffee than on Robusta, as the latter is typically more heat tolerant."
- Dr. Michaela Kuhl, Analyst at Commerzbank AG on agriculture
Arabica coffee accounts for about 70% of the global coffee market share, but is highly sensitive to increases in temperature. Regional and joint studies have shown that Arabica coffee cultivation may be severely affected in the future. Global temperatures are forecast to increase by 2°C- 2.5°C within a few decades; Brazil alone could witness a 25% drop in production by 2050. >>
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Press Review
Bloomberg
When Will Inflation Return?
Bloomberg’s Tom Keene, Brendan Greeley and Vonnie Quinn look at the Twitter question of the day.
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: EUR
The past week was undoubtedly the dollar’s period, as the USD Index spent the past four trading days towering over its peers after shooting up on Friday’s core CPI numbers. The EUR Index, in turn, was less firm and kept below the baseline for most of the period, albeit not showing any heavy downtrends and holding around the level it initially slid to. The least fortunate currencies of the period were the Aussie and the Kiwi, both of which suffered sharp falls on Thursday.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
April release
Despite the brightening outlook for the European economy, there were a number of experts who remained pessimistic about economic prospects. Yet, more and more professors saw the region’s economy recovering and moving towards expansion, compared to the previous month data.

Global Stock Market Review
European stocks climbed on negations over Greece
The last week of May was strong for European stock market, on hopes that Greece debt negotiations will be resolved in the nearest perspective. After the negotiations of Greek, German and French heads of state which was held on Thursday, a Greek government spokesperson expressed optimism that a cash-for-reforms deal could be reached with creditors within 10 days.
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Commodity Overview
Gold Weakens During The Week
Gold futures fell 3% to $1,205.88 per troy ounce last week on the international market, while on the MCX gold gave up 1.39%. Gold for June delivery weakened on the Nymex and was traded at $1,204.90 per troy ounce last week amid deferred interest rate by the Federal Reserve till the end of the year. Elsewhere, on Monday precious metal achieve its highest value in a long time $1,232.44 per ounce, however, on Tuesday it dropped till $1,207.20 per ounce amid stronger Dollar.
Trade Pattern Idea
USD/SGD 1H Chart: Channel Up
The USD/SGD currency pair has been trading upwards since the beginning of the previous trading week, May 18. >>

CAD/JPY 1D Chart: Channel Up
After the rollercoaster experienced between October and February CAD/JPY is acting more reserved now. >>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 16:30 GMT.
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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