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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 05-12-2016 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 05/12/2016 16:04
Dukascopy Technical Analysis

USD/CAD attempts to rebound from a tough support
"Technical factors warn of the risk of additional near-term US dollar losses, though it closed near its lower Bollinger Band (~CAD1.3290). A break of CAD1.3200-CAD1.3230 could spur a move toward CAD1.30."
- BBH (based on FXStreet)

The American Dollar continued to decline against the Loonie at the end of the previous week, almost completely ignoring the immediate support cluster around the 1.33 mark. However, the Buck is now expected to rebound, as a close on Friday revealed a potential support line at 1.3287, which appears to be quite difficult to pierce.
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
US unemployment rate fell from 4.9% to 4.6% in November, lowest level since 2007
The US unemployment rate fell to a nine-year low in November, adding to expectations that US interest rates will rise later this month. Figures from the Labor Department showed the US economy created 178,000 jobs in November, while the jobless rate fell to 4.6% from 4.9% in October. The first employment report since voters went to the polls last month shows an economy in strong shape as President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take office. The unemployment rate fell to levels not seen since August 2007, before a bubble in the U.S. housing market began to burst.
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Trade Pattern Idea
AUD/CAD 4H Chart: Double Bottom
Following a 5% loss in value, AUD/CAD could be attempting a reversal with a double bottom formation.>>

NZD/USD 1D Chart: Channel Up
Following a break below the bottom trend-line of the year-long channel up pattern, NZD/USD retraced from the broken level to potentially extend the slip into more negative territory, and the 200-day SMA at 0.7053 could serve as the immediate ground, opening up 0.6927/6903 for tests if broken. >>
Expert Commentary
"I believe that it will not have any impact on the widely anticipated rate hike by the US Central bank."
- Robert Martin, US economist at Barclays Capital Inc., on US election outcome
At Barclays, we continue to expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates in December this year. In our view, the cumulative progress in the US economy is more than sufficient to offset any even potential risks from the outcome of the election. >>
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Press Review
Populists in Europe will loose: Moscovici
European Commissioner for Economic Affairs Pierre Moscovici discusses populism in Europe, saying that "European values are stronger than they believe."
Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
June Release
The positive momentum in the Asia-Pacific region seems to have continued in June even despite soft global demand and signs that the Chinese investment-led recovery is coming to an end, as both short and long run sentiment indices soared in the measured month.
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 15:30 GMT.
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This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
“The Yen has reversed a portion of the losses; and this has helped to bring EUR/JPY back down to support around 114.08.”


“It's likely the Aussie will remain relatively contained, butsusceptible to any pre-election jitters.”Jacques Rousseau, ClearView Energy Partners, shares his outlook on oilahead of OPEC's November 30th meeting. An oil cut will balance supplyand demand but not inventories, says Rousseau.

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