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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 09-10-2015 - Morning

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 09/10/2015 07:43
Dukascopy Forex Community TV
12:00 GMT Dukascopy Research Webinar >>
1. Fun Friday Quiz on Top News and Headlines
2. Market Research EUR
3. Canada - Employment Change Data Release
4. Technical Analysis: Trade Pattern Idea
Dukascopy Technical Analysis

EUR/USD set to probe 1.13 again
“Receding expectations for a Fed rate hike are making the dollar vulnerable. Both the yen and the dollar are pressured.” 
- Shinkin Asset Management (based on Bloomberg)
The common currency was actively fuelled by support zone at 1.1241/20 on Thursday.
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
German trade surplus narrows as exports decline at fastest pace since 2009
The Euro zone's biggest economy booked a lower trade surplus in August, as exports plunged by their largest amount since the global financial crisis, in the latest sign that Germany is feeling the headwind from a slowdown in emerging markets. According to the data from the Federal Statistics Office, Germany's foreign trade, one of the components of the country's current account, generated a non-seasonally adjusted surplus of 15.3 billion euros in the reported period, up from the 25 billion euros registered in July.
Expert Commentary
"At the current moment, it is very unlikely that inflation will rise anywhere near 2% in the foreseeable future without further easing from the Bank of Japan."
- Mark Williams, Chief Asia economist at Capital Economics Ltd, on Japanese economy and JPY
The BoJ's latest economic forecasts show that inflation is set to reach 1.9% in fiscal 2016, even though the majority of economists are sceptical that this can be achieved without further easing by the Central Bank. What is your view on this issue and what is the BoJ expected to do to reach the projected 1.9%? >>
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Press Review
Will the Fed raise interest rates this year?
Manish Singh, strategist and head of investments at Crossbridge Capital, explains why he thinks the Federal Reserve should have hiked rates in September.
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: CAD
Canadian currency was the clear best performer during the five-day period ended October 6. This currency traded firmly in green every single day from Wednesday of the previous week until Tuesday of this week. Only the New Zealand Dollar attempted to challenge the leadership status of the Loonie, when the NZD Index neared the CAD Index on the first day of October.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
September release
China's "Black Monday" crash on August 24 triggered a tornado which swept through the global economies and equity markets, sowing panic among investors, policy makers and ordinary people, but, as it faded, economic sentiment seemed to restore. September release of Dukascopy Bank Sentiment index revealed that all indices which show academia experts evaluation of regions’ short and long-term economic prospects rebounded after precipitous declines in the preceding month.

Global Stock Market Review
European stock market gained despite weak economic data
Shares of major European companies advanced significantly during the previous trading week, as all biggest stock indexes of the region erased looses of last six months, pushing it to the green zone. Nevertheless, consumer prices in the Euro zone fell 0.1% in September, driven down by the 8.9% drop in energy prices from a year earlier.
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Commodity Overview
Precious Metals Up on Global Cues
Gold spiked on Friday amid disappointing payrolls data from the United States, which showed that the US economy added far fewer jobs than it was expected, prompting that the Fed’s rate hike is unlikely to take place this year. Gold futures for delivery in December reached an intraday high of $1,141.02 before it drifted back to settle at $1,137.9 in the late Friday’s trade, though still climbing 2.17% on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Trade Pattern Idea
USD/DKK 4H Chart: Triangle
USD/DKK is currently approaching the apex of the symmetrical triangle, meaning we should brace ourselves for a substantial increase in volatility. >>

USD/PLN 1D Chart: Triangle
There is a plethora of signs that USD/PLN is soon going to resume from Jul-14 to Mar-15 recovery. >>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 16:30 GMT.
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This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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