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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 05-08-2015 - Morning

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 05/08/2015 07:41
Dukascopy Forex Community TV
Today
12:00 GMT Marc Spaelti, Dukascopy VP & COO, joins the Research Webinar >>
1. Federal Reserve policy and Greenback
2. Bank of England and the Pound
3. Oil prospects
4. Movers and shakers of gold.
 
Dukascopy Technical Analysis

EUR/USD at two-week low after falling 60 pips
“The comments from Lockhart have definitely helped bolster the appeal of the U.S. dollar again.” 
- Cambridge Global Payments (based on Bloomberg)
EUR/USD was down around 60 pips on Tuesday, thus registering its steepest drop since July 29. As a result, the pair breached the recent low and plunged below 1.09.
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
US factory orders rise more than expected on strong demand for aircraft
New orders for US factory goods recovered strongly in June amid robust demand for transportation equipment and other goods, a positive sign for the nation’s struggling manufacturing sector. According to the Commerce Department, new orders for manufactured goods surged 1.8% following the 1.1% decline in May.
Expert Commentary
"To look at this a little closer, it has been 935 trading days since the US Dollar and the stock market had a correction."
- Nik Kalsi, Head of Investment Analysis at The Gold & Silver Club of London, on gold
Bloomberg Commodity Index fell to a 13-year low by the start of the new week, even weaker than the 2008 crisis level. The value of exchange traded products for gold declined to the lowest level since the year of 2009. Therefore, the precious metal joins the worst-performing asset classes over the year. What is your current outlook on the commodity market? >>
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Press Review
Bloomberg
Commodities Slide: Should You Brace for the Worst?
It’s been a rotten year for investors in commodities with oil alone, down 21% last month.
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: USD
Continuing the tendency of the previous period, the most of the time the Greenback has spent below the baseline. However the USD index managed to overcome the historical level and ended the week with the 0.1% gain. Thus the US dollar has overtaken most of the peer currencies, losing only the Kiwi (+0.26%), the Aussie (+0.52%) and the pound (+0.83%).
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
June release
Professors’ confidence considerably deteriorated in June compared with the preceding month. While the global sixmonth economic sentiment index remained unchanged, the three-year outlook markedly worsened, led by a precipitous decline in the Asian-Pacific and European long-term sentiment indexes.

Global Stock Market Review
European equities rose on calm trading
Financial markets took a break from recent volatility, while global stock market generally expanded after a string of daily losses ended on Monday. Unfortunately, little significant economic data were reported globally, but among these low amount of news, the preliminary data released by Eurostat showed the inflation in the Euro Zone measured by the consumer price index stayed unchanged at 0.2%, but core inflation increased 0.9% from 0.8% in June.
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Commodity Overview
Gold Stops Posting Losses Over Week
Gold prices failed to book significant gains over the last week, though some analysts expect yellow metal’s prices to decline below the psychological $1,100 marker amid a stronger US Dollar driven up by the Fed’s rate hike expectations. The precious metal stopped its bearish trend, adding 0.84% to settle at $1,095.10 per ounce last week.
Trade Pattern Idea
AUD/CAD 1H Chart: Channel Up
AUD/CAD might have formed a bullish channel, but further advancement is nevertheless questionable. >>

EUR/AUD 1D Chart: Channel Up
EUR/AUD has been bullish for the past four months, and the currency pair is likely to keep moving north. >>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 16:30 GMT.
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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