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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 28-06-2016 - Morning

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 28/06/2016 07:14
Dukascopy Forex Community TV
Today
07:00 GMT iiivb's Trading Room
08:00 GMT Trade and React From Levels
09:00 GMT Option Levels
09:30 GMT Main Levels and Entry Points
10:00 GMT Current Week in Focus
10:30 GMT FX Market Review
11:00 GMT Market Analysis Live in 3 Different Timeframes
12:00 GMT Everything You Wanted to Know About Markets
13:00 GMT Reviewing Impact of News on FX Market
13:30 GMT 1 Pip Box Renko Price Action Scalping
14:00 GMT Daily Technical Levels
14:30 GMT Currencies of Interest

Technical Analysis
EUR/USD continues to recover after Brexit on Tuesday
"Tempting as it may be, now is not the time to pick bottoms in currencies and this is true for sterling, euro and even the yen."
- BK Asset Management (based on investing.com)
After Brexit on Monday, the Euro started recovering against the US Dollar by appreciating from 1.1007 at the start of Monday’s session to 1.1023 at the end of day’s trading. On Tuesday morning the currency exchange rate is continuing yesterday’s recovery, as by 5:00 GMT the pair has surged from 1.1023 to 1.1060. One of the main reasons for this surge is the correction of the Euro’s value after the markets might have overreacted on the UK’s referendum vote results.
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Fundamental Analysis
U.S. Markit services PMI remains unchanged in June; wider trade deficit
Activity in the US services sector remained tepid in June, suggesting that the economy's underlying rate of growth remains lowly and that a rate hike may not be on the cards too soon. In a report, market research group Markit said that its flash services purchasing managers’ index remained unchanged at 51.3 in June for the second month, falling short of expectations for a rise to a reading of 51.9.
Expert Commentary
"All the fundamental changes drive up the consumption share in GDP, so the rebalancing is still happening."
- Yang Zhao, Chief China Economist at Nomura International, on Chinese economy
It is difficult to measure; however, overall, the debt to GDP ratio in China is now above 200%. One can base their measurement using different statistic data, but, in general, it is above 200%, and a lot of it lies on the corporate sector. This situation creates certain problems, causing the higher financial cost for the corporate sector, which will put stress on the economic growth, par-ticularly on profitability of the corporate sector. >>
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Press Review
Michael Ashton
On Twits, Brits And Brexit
I want to talk today about some of the really important pieces of information that circulated this weekend. First, I am certain that everyone is familiar with the following chart, which made the rounds after the Brexit vote.
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: USD
The yen became the leader of the previous week, posting the second highest index growth, but holding above its peers throughout the period. The measure surged to the week’s absolute high of 3.7 points after the BoJ interest rate decision, but fell back the following day, yielding the first place to the GBP Index.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
May Release
The global economy expanded at its slowest pace in nearly three years in the first quarter of 2016 as a result of less resilient financial conditions mainly in the emerging markets, while the growth in the developed countries also remained sluggish. The major headwinds determining the global economic scene last month were the Fed’s rate hike expectations, latest updates from Chinese officials, indications that Japanese government and the BoJ could introduce further fiscal and monetary easing in the months to come and a steady rise in commodity prices.

Global Stock Market Review
European shares traded in a negative environment
Global stocks declined during the week in volatile trade as markets are awaiting the Brexit referendum. A clear swing in opinion polls in favor of the Leave camp put markets on edge this week. The Brexit campaign will resume on Monday.
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Commodity Overview
Precious Metals Pause as ‘Brexit’ Takes Lead
Gold futures slipped during the last trading day of the previous week, though still finishing the session near Thursday’s 22-month high, on the back of strong market volatility ahead of Britain’s June 23 referendum on its membership in the EU coupled with indications that the Federal Reserve will hardly hike rates in the months to come. On Thursday, the bullion rose to $1,318.90, hitting the highest mark since August 2014, while on Friday futures of the precious metal eased, edging 0.28%, or $3.60, lower, to eventually close the week at $1,294.80 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Trade Pattern Idea
AUD/SGD 1H Chart: Descending Triangle
AUD/SGD confirmed the lower bound of the bullish channel forming in the daily chart in May, and right now the pair is in the upward wave within the channel.>>

EUR/SGD 1M Chart: Channel Down
For the time being the risks are heavily skewed to the downside. The currency pair has recently confirmed the upper bound of the channel, meaning we should see a sell-off from 1.57 and through the recently established rising support trend-line that is standing at 1.5150.>>
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Economic Reseach
Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick. In our new research we try and compare a few of the most popular techniques, and see if they are in fact suitable for forecasting currency exchange rates.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30M, 1H, 4H and 1D time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 07:30 GMT.
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

1 pip box renko price action scalping + 70 tick EURUSD


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