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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 03-05-2016 - Morning

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 03/05/2016 07:12
Dukascopy Forex Community TV
Today
08:30 GMT UK Manufacturing PMI >>
The Dukascopy Research Team covers the fundamentals and technicals on the economic data release. Research Team members discuss the historical data for the particular news release, talk through the potential positive and negative surprise trading strategy and try to project the possible market reaction. 

11:00 GMT Webinar by Community member 'thekrash' on 'Market analysis in 3 different time frames' >>
Dukascopy Community member Christian from Peru is going to cover market analysis of diferent pairs using Fibonacci, Simple Moving Average and Support/Resistance in 3 different time frames. Guests and viewers are welcome to participate and ask their questions!
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD surges past 1.15, stopped by W/M R1
"The rug has been pulled from the dollar, and the euro can go nowhere but up."
- Westpac Banking Corp. (based on Bloomberg)
Weakness of the Dollar transferred to the new working week, as another piece of soft North American data pushed EUR/USD beyond 1.15. By violating multi-month resistances, including the October 2015 high, the pair was only capped by the weekly and monthly R1s placed around 1.1538. This is the initial supply for Tuesday, but the rally until the second bunch of resistances (weekly/monthly R2) at 1.1619/26 is not off the table. Now the cross is trading at its peak levels since August of the last year and weekly technical indicators suggest the uptrend is ready to continue.    
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Fundamental Analysis
Draghi defends negative interest rate policy; manufacturing sector continues to improve
ECB President Mario Draghi responded to critics from German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble that negative interest rates hurt savers and weighing on the banking sector. Draghi said that low interest rates are not harmless but they are only the symptom, not the cause of an underlying problem, adding that there was no alternative for now.
Expert Commentary
"The other thing that will influence silver is obviously the price of gold, and we are somewhat bullish on the yellow metal."
- Edward Meir, Senior Commodity Consultant at INTL FCStone, on silver
The fundamentals in silver are looking a little bit better and there are a lot of production cutbacks coming in. Some of the mines are closing; some of the zinc mines and lead mines that have silver as a derivative product are shutting down, so the fundamen-tals of the market look a bit better. >>
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Press Review
Declan Fallon
Markets Rally But Breadth Remains Weakl
On Monday the market enjoyed some follow-through upside after Friday's afternoon recovery. However, gains were on very light volume given the distribution which carried most of last week. Also, market breadth remains in decline from overbought levels.
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: USD
The main market drivers of the past week were the central banks, with their decisions or expectations of thereof causing a number of sharp reactions from the observed indexes. The first such response came on early Wednesday, when weak CPI numbers increased the odds of a rate cut from the RBA and pushed the Aussie’s gauge to tumble below 99.0 points.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
March Release
The global economy seems to have stabilized in the previous month, following a turbulent ride in the beginning of the year. The overall economic sentiment was mainly boosted by renewed optimism over the state of Chinese economy along with higher oil prices, which were, in turn, bolstered by expectations that the world’s major producers could come to an agreement to freeze crude oil extraction.

Global Stock Market Review
European shares were negative during previous trading week
The April 25-29 week showed the continuation of a negative tendency of the stock market in Europe. Concerning the economic data, the Euro zone economy increased by 1.6% on a yearly pace in the first quarter, showing the same rate growth as in the preceding quarter. Inflation failed to keep pace, however, sliding 0.2% year over year while core inflation rose 0.8%.
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Commodity Overview
Precious Metals Continue Rising On Weaker USD
Gold prices increased on Monday, being support by rising demand for safe haven assets, as well as a decline in oil prices. As a result, futures for June delivery edged 0.34% higher, having risen up to $1,238.6 per ounce; however, the day still ended with prices stabilising only at $1,233.6. During all of the week gold experienced mixed performance, with rather sharp volatility, but futures’ prices continued to grow until Wednesday, where they were up only 0.02%. The trend here was reversed, with the stronger US Dollar and the upcoming Fed decision weighing on the yellow metal. Ultimately, futures dropped to the lowest level in 1.5 weeks, namely down to $1,228.70 per troy ounce on the Comex division.
Trade Pattern Idea
EUR/USD 1H Chart: Channel Up
The Euro has been strongly bullish since it bottomed out in April near 1.1220, and the chances are the single currency will keep moving higher. EUR/USD is trading next to the lower boundary of the emerging channel at the moment, which implies a rally from the current levels towards 1.16, where the rate is expected to meet the upper boundary of the pattern. >>

AUD/NZD 1W Chart: Ascending Triangle
AUD/NZD is well-positioned for a rally. For one, the currency pair has just breached a major five-year resistance trend-line. As if this were not enough, there is an ascending triangle emerging in the weekly chart, a pattern that indicates growing demand. >>
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Economic Reseach
Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick. In our new research we try and compare a few of the most popular techniques, and see if they are in fact suitable for forecasting currency exchange rates.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30M, 1H, 4H and 1D time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 07:30 GMT.
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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