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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 01-09-2015 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 01/09/2015 14:38
Community Forecast
khalidamassi on EUR/USD
“After strong move of EUR/USD last week to 1.17, then falling to 1.12, next week’s recovery to 1.15 is very likely as the pair closed above 1.12 for the second week, but clear break below 1.12 will dampen expected bullish view for next week.”
Dukascopy Technical Analysis

EUR/JPY extends decline, tests 135.00
“The ECB is really getting mixed messages -- growth is holding up quite well, the recovery story looks to be on track. However, we’ve had an increase in market turmoil, which has led to some tightening in financial conditions, and we’ve seen the slump in commodity prices that have caused a decline in inflation expectations.”
- ABN Amro Bank NV (based on Bloomberg)
The Euro remained relatively unchanged against the Japanese Yen yesterday, declining only five pips. With the new month the monthly pivot point shifted higher, leaving the EUR/JPY unsupported around 135.70.
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
RBA keeps rate on hold as weak Aussie and past rate cuts assist growth
The Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates on hold at 2% after the recent stock market turmoil as a weaker Australian Dollar and past rate cuts have a positive impact on growth. The central bank said the Australian Dollar was adjusting to the significant drops in key commodity prices. Since the August meeting, the Aussie has lost 2.5% versus the US Dollar and 1% on a trade weighted basis.
Expert Commentary
"In case the Fed will decide to act in September despite the mentioned circumstance in the market - it could deteriorate the sentiment and dampen the Japanese currency to 115."
- Osamu Takashima, Chief FX Strategist at Citibank, on Japanese Yen
As you may observe the historic data during the last two years when the Yen has found its peak, the depth of the adjustment was five figures. For instance, in January 2014, the Yen peaked at 105 levels, at the time the USD/JPY pair was put to 100 and the depth of the adjustment was five figures as well. >>
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Press Review
Bloomberg
Oil Down 2% After Best 3-Day Gain in 25 Years
Oil pared its biggest three-day rally in 25 years as speculation faded that OPEC may coordinate supply restraint with other nations to tackle the global crude surplus.
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: USD
The past week began with the wild swings for almost all observed currencies. The dramatic fall of the US and European stocks on Monday led to the weakening of the commodity currencies. Meanwhile, the safe-heaven currencies have jumped to the maximum values of the period.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
July release
Summertime sadness appeared to dominate among academia experts, as professors’ mood darkened in July amid worries over the Greek debt crisis and the country’s future within the Euro zone as well as China’s stock rout. However, the three-year economic sentiment indexes for all regions surged in the reported month, signaling economists’ confidence that the world economy will strengthen in the long-run. 
Global Stock Market Review
European stocks rebounded 6% last week as volatility waned
Equity markets across European countries surged considerably during the previous week ended Aug 28, following a disastrous Aug 17-21 week. Market volatility declined noticeably, while markets were also inspired by positive fundamentals from the US.
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Commodity Overview
Gold Dips Amid Rate Hike Expectations
Gold inched up on Friday, but still closed the week down more than 2%, as solid data from the United States helped the Greenback to recover and drag metal’s prices down, while concerns over the Fed rate hike postponement faded away. Gold futures for delivery in December tacked on $11.40, or 1.02%, to finish Friday’s session at $1,134.00 a troy ounce on the Comex.
Trade Pattern Idea
USD/SEK 1H Chart: Double Top
USD/SEK is currently approaching to the neck-line of the double top pattern and preparing to test the first support level around 8.42. >>

AUD/USD 1D Chart: Channel Down
The Aussie has been depreciating versus the Dollar since May of the previous year.>>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 16:30 GMT.
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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