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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 09-02-2016 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 09/02/2016 15:19
Community Forecast
jninopena on GBP/USD:
“I think the pair will start trading within the range mentioned [1.409-1.47]. Since it is currently in the upper side of the range, I think it will go to test the lower boundary.”
Dukascopy Technical Analysis

AUD/USD puts an end to the three-week up-trend
“We had brutal price action overnight with risk assets hammered while safe haven assets were bid. There was no clear catalyst for the selloff, however market uncertainty has remained high.”
- National Australia Bank (based on CNBC)
The Australian Dollar’s rally on Monday was limited by the immediate resistance cluster, which is also likely to turn the table around earlier than anticipated. 
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
US labour market cools in January
The US labour market started the year on a weaker footing, the Fed’s comprehensive measure showed. The Labor Market Conditions Index dropped to 0.4 points in January after a revised 2.3 points in December, reaching the lowest reading since April 2015. The indicator averaged 1.9 points in all of last year, compared with 5.2 points in 2014. The January labour market report confirmed a slowdown in job creation after a rapid growth late in 2015 amid unusually warm weather. Rising wages and the unemployment rate at an eight-year low signalled the labour market recovery remains strong.
Expert Commentary
"For the time being, we believe the RBNZ is not in a hurry to cut interest rates yet, since the currency is declining quite a lot, which is supportive for the economy."
- Nordine Naam, Global Macro Strategist at Natixis, on Kiwi
RBNZ governor Wheeler has talked down the chances of interest rate cuts, dismissing the need for a knee-jerk reaction to a weaker inflation caused by slumping oil prices, and suggested that "some recent inflation indicators are encouraging". Do you believe that this confirms the bank’s lack of urgency in responding to the weak inflation dynamic? What changes do you expect to see in the RBNZ’s policy and when?>>
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Press Review
Steen Jakobsen
Stress Indicators: It's in the charts – a panic that's almost total
My email box is overflowing with negative views on the market – the believers in central bank efficacy and quantitative easing have lost their faith – finally – and there is now a new reality, one where central banks are not relevant.
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: USD
The observed currency indexes posted another wide range of weekly changes, with some of the measures turning tables on their previous results. The most notable change of mind was showed by the yen’s gauge, which was pushed 2.5% below the baseline by the BoJ decision to introduce a negative interest rate on January 29.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
December release
2015 was a tough year for the global economy amid geopolitical risks and migration crisis as well as slowdown in emerging markets, particularly in China. However, there was also a bright spot, with the US economy strengthening and the Fed feeling confident that the world’s number one economy could withstand the first interest rate hike in almost a decade.
Global Stock Market Review
Japanese equities plunged significantly on strong Yen
Among other financial markets, Japanese shares performed in the less successful way during the last trading week. Sinking oil prices as well as the strengthening yen, which pressured major exporters, pushed Japanese equities down.
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Commodity Overview
Precious Metals Jump on Mixed US Jobs Report
Gold rose on Friday on the back of the mixed US employment report for January that revealed the rate of job creation slowed over the last month, while wage growth increased, which, in turn, supported the outlook for inflation and raised concerns that the Fed might still hike interest rates several times this year. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for delivery in April settled at $1,157.80 a troy ounce by the end of Friday’s trade, gaining 20 cents compared to the Thursday’s close of $1,157.60.
Trade Pattern Idea
NZD/USD 1H Chart: Channel Up
The Kiwi is encountering the 200-hour simple moving average line at 0.6576, which is guarding the bullish pattern’s lower boundary at 0.6529.>>

GBP/NZD 1D Chart: Falling Wedge
GBP/NZD appears to be trading within the falling wedge, meaning we should be wary of a strong rally once the price is above the red trend-line.>>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 14:30 GMT.
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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