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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 26-05-2016 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 26/05/2016 15:18
Latest Expert Commentary
"I do not think it will continue at the pace that we saw in the Q1, because if we had big impact from constructions, it seems to be seasonal."
- Dario Perkins, Chief European Economist at Lombard Street Research Ltd, on Eurozone
Moreover we have a factor from a big rise in consumer demand, which has come from low energy prices that have already reversed. Thus, both of these factors will disappear. However, I also believe that there is a reason to get out, just not as strong as what we saw last quarter. 
Dukascopy Technical Analysis

NZD/USD in tight range between 100-day SMA and weekly PP
“While the outlook for NZD is still deemed as neutral for now, downward pressure is increasing and a clear break below would indicate the start of a sustained down-move to 0.6670.”
- UOB (based on FXStreet)
Once again the 100-day SMA managed to prevent the New Zealand Dollar from declining, as it has during the previous two weeks.
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
Crude inventories fall 4.2 million barrels in the week to May 20
The US crude inventories dropped last week, posting the biggest weekly decline in seven weeks, due to the falling import, which forced refiners to cut output. According to the Energy Information Administration, the report showed a 4.2 million-barrel plunge in crude supplies last week, which was a sharper decrease than the 2.5-million fall based on analysts’ expectations. The report also showed a surprising rebound in supplies from Canada, as weekly imports reached 3.09 million bpd, from the previous week's 2.59 million bpd, despite Canadian oil sands shutdowns amid a massive wildfire. 
Expert Commentary
"I think, they have already anticipated that, as they have moved already before the inflation number turned negative. I suppose, a lot of is coming from energy prices. Thus, I do not think they will react now, as the inflation should pick up quite quickly."
- Dario Perkins, Chief European Economist at Lombard Street Research Ltd, on Eurozone
It is going to depend on what is happening with central banks. If the Fed starts to raise interest rates more aggressively, that could push the Dollar up, which in its turn would depress the Euro. Moreover, toward the end of the year, I think, people will be starting to wonder about whether the ECB can extend its QE again, and that source can have a big bearing. 
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Press Review
What Will Take the Markets Higher?
JPMorgan Funds Global Market Strategist Anastasia Amoroso discuses the markets, Fed policy and her investment ideas.
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: GBP
The first surge in volatility of the UK currency took place on Wednesday when the country published latest employment and wage figures for April. The GBP Volatility Index surged to the period’s second highest level of 2 points. Another Wednesday’s event and activity were the Federal Reserve’s publication of minutes of its April meeting, as they carried a more hawkish tone than anticipated. On Thursday, a boost of the UK retail sales set a stable ground for solid GDP growth in the second quarter, after they rebounded more than estimated in April, while March’s data was revised upwards.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
April Release
The near-term economic sentiment index for Europe rebounded over the course of the previous month, after slumping as much as 0.11 points in March. Despite that, it did not come as a surprise that the most recent negative economic developments in Europe including ‘Brexit’ worries and the still-undecided Greek crisis continued to cast a pall upon the forecast for Europe’s economic performance among the professors surveyed on the matter, as they saw the European economy in a fairly negative state in the months to come.
Global Stock Market Review
European shares managed to strengthen
The Stoxx 600 ended the session at 338.01 level. Only four out of nineteen industry groups on the index posted weekly gains, while automobiles & parts and chemicals shares dropped 1.79% and 1.72% on week, respectively. Thomas Cook Group Plc, a British global travel company, was the last week’s weakest performer with its stock price reaching 73.70 pence trading down by 15.82%. Among top performers, Restaurant Group Plc, a British chain of restaurants and public houses, in turn, traded up 22% to 352.10 euros, on a report that private-equity firm Cinven Ltd. is considering a bid for the UK owner of Frankie & Benny’s.
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Commodity Overview
Precious Metals Down as Investors Look for US Rate Hike
Silver, unlike gold, tacked on during Friday’s trade. On the Comex, silver prices soared modest 3.9 cents, or 0.24%, to finish the session at $16.53 a troy ounce. Nevertheless, despite the uptick posted during the last trading day, silver futures settled lower over the course of the whole trading week, declining as much as 3.5%, or 60.8 cents, and registering the third consecutive weekly dip, as investors reconsidered their expectations for the rate hike timing by the Fed on the back of more hawkish comments by several Federal Reserve’s officials.
Trade Pattern Idea
USD/JPY 4H Chart: Broadening Falling Wedge
The Greenback’s upward tendency has probably come to an end, provided that USD/JPY neared the pattern’s upper boundary at 110.31. Guarded by the first monthly resistance, the cross may experience difficulties with breaching the pattern in order to extend the rally. >>

EUR/SGD 1W Chart: Channel Down
At the moment EUR/SGD is bullish, as the currency pair is guided north by the trend-line that was established back in 2015, currently at 1.53. >>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 15:30 GMT.
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This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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