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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 08-12-2016 - Morning

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 08/12/2016 08:57
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Technical Analysis
Euro still focused on senior channel
"The euro is less likely to fall, because bets against the euro have piled up and investors have tended to buy back the currency after the Italian referendum."
- Daiwa Securities (based on Business Recorder)
EUR/USD opened in line with the senior channel expectations, targeting the upper trend-line at 1.0795 with a red candle. Immediate resistance lies at 1.0772 and there are no more obstacles which could potentially prohibit tests of the targeted level.
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Fundamental Analysis
British industrial production drops sharply in October
British industrial production posted the biggest monthly fall in more than four years in October after the temporary shutdown of the UK’s largest oilfield. According to the Office for National Statistics, industrial output declined 1.3% in the reported month, following September’s drop of 0.4% and falling behind the 0.2% rise market forecast.
Expert Commentary
"In our forecast, we are currently seeing the Trump’s administration imposing tariffs or putting up trade barriers on Mexican and Chinese imports."
- Robert Martin, US economist at Barclays Capital Inc., on US election outcome
I believe that it will not have any impact on the widely anticipated rate hike by the US Central bank. At Barclays, we continue to expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates in December this year.>>
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Press Review
CNBC
European bourses higher on hopes of new ECB stimulus
Markets in Europe opened higher on Thursday as investors await an announcement from President Mario Draghi of the ECB on further monetary stimulus.
Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
June Release
Having experienced a completely unexpected United Kingdom’s vote to leave the European Union in the referendum that took place on June 23, the global economy is now even further from seeing a continuous upturn, especially in the wake of weak EM performance, economic and political challenges in Europe along with ongoing uncertainty over the upcoming elections in the United States.
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Trade Pattern Idea
AUD/CAD 1H Chart: Rectangle
Following a failed attempt at forming a double bottom at 0.9859, AUD/CAD entered a ranging market within a rectangle pattern. With supply and demand being in balance, it is now hard to tell whether a reversal is still on the table.>>

NZD/USD 1D Chart: Channel Up
Following a break below the bottom trend-line of the year-long channel up pattern, NZD/USD retraced from the broken level to potentially extend the slip into more negative territory, and the 200-day SMA at 0.7053 could serve as the immediate ground, opening up 0.6927/6903 for tests if broken.>>
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30M, 1H, 4H and 1D time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 07:30 GMT.
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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