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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 03-08-2015 - Morning

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 03/08/2015 07:41
Dukascopy Forex Community TV
Today
08:30 GMT UK Manufacturing PMI >>
Dukascopy Research Team covers fundamentals and technicals on the economic data release. Discussion of the historical data, potential trading strategies and projection of the possible market reaction.
 
12:00 GMT Dukascopy Research Webinar >>
1. Expert Commentary on gold from The Gold & Silver Club of London
2. Market Research USD
3. Technical analysis: Trade Pattern Idea
Dukascopy Technical Analysis

EUR/USD fails to sustain growth above 1.10
“This strengthened the hand of dovish members of the FOMC who remain circumspect about when inflation will return to the Fed's target, particularly in light of the renewed weakness in commodity and oil prices.” 
- ANZ (based on Reuters)
EUR/USD ended the previous trading week slightly below the 1.10 mark, as it managed to recover only losses of Thursday's session. The mentioned round level seems to act as a strong barrier for bulls at the moment. It should be added that all attempts of the Euro to surge as high as 1.11 were negated by the market. The focus among long market participants is now turning to the monthly pivot point at 1.1002, which is reinforced by the 20-day SMA. However, bears are still there and they are aiming at the recent low (1.0893).
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
Euro zone core inflation rises 1.0%, while unemployment rate remains at 11.1%
Consumer inflation in the Euro zone barely climbed from the previous year in July, while the number of unemployed rose in June, adding to signs that the ECB’s QE programme has yet to deliver the desired results. According to Eurostat, consumer prices in the region were 0.2% higher than in July 2013, considerably below the central bank’s goal of just under 2%. Inflation was subdued by a renewed decline in energy prices, which dropped 5.6% from a year earlier.
Expert Commentary
"Due to the fundamental basis the inflation outlook is very benign, and the low inflation environment should support bond market in order to prevent yields on rising too far."
- Richard Franulovich, Senior Currency Strategist at Westpac, on US economy and Greenback
There is a better than 50% chance that the Fed will raise interest rates in September. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told that it should get ahead of the curve, as inflation will rise and labor market slack will end, whilst rates have been kept at near-zero levels for too long. >>
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Press Review
Bloomberg
Athens Stock Exchange Reopens, but With Restrictions
Athens Stock Exchange reopens today after a five-week hiatus. That’s the longest trading halt since the 1970s. A host of restrictions will apply due to capital controls imposed as Greece acted to preserve its financial system.
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: EUR
The Euro index was rather stable past week, and even spent the most of the time above the baseline. However on the last day after the disappointing German employment data and CPI the index fell below the historical level and ended the period with the 0.23% loss. The pound, which showed the upward trend since the release of the UK GDP on Tuesday, on the contrary, began to grow stronger against the background of the German news and became the leader of the period (+0.89%).
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
June release
Professors’ confidence considerably deteriorated in June compared with the preceding month. While the global sixmonth economic sentiment index remained unchanged, the three-year outlook markedly worsened, led by a precipitous decline in the Asian-Pacific and European long-term sentiment indexes.

Global Stock Market Review
European equities retreated on low corporate earnings
Greece’s parliament passed new austerity measures Thursday, clearing the way for negotiations with its international creditors over a third bailout package, worth up to 86 billion euros. Moreover, Greece hopes to have funding in place by 20 August, when it is due to repay 3.2 billion euros to the European Central Bank.
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Commodity Overview
Gold Extends the Annual Decline
Gold prices dropped to the lowest level since 2010 over the week ending July 24, marking the longest losing streak since the year of 1996, as a stronger Greenback made dollar-priced commodities less attractive for overseas investors. On the weekly basis, bullion slid to $1,090 per ounce, losing around 4% of its value. Furthermore, holdings in SPDR Gold Trust have reached their lowest since 2008 mark of 22.17 million ounces.
Trade Pattern Idea
EUR/JPY 4H Chart: Ascending triangle
A traditional ascending triangle is a continuation pattern within an up-trend; this time around it was preceded by a sell-off, which increases the uncertainty regarding the direction of a break-out. >>

EUR/AUD 1D Chart: Channel Up
EUR/AUD has been bullish for the past four months, and the currency pair is likely to keep moving north. >>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 16:30 GMT.
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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