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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 17-02-2017 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 17/02/2017 16:46
Dukascopy Technical Analysis

AUD/USDrisks breaking channel pattern
"The fact that the investment community is still betting on an ongoing [US] dollar appreciation further reinforces the case for a downside surpise."
- AMP Capital Investors Ltd. (based on Bloomberg)

The Australian Dollar failed to appreciate against the American counterpart on Thursday, having experinced a 17-pip loss. A slide back under 0.77 suggests the AUD/USD pair is not ready to maintain trade above this area, thus, risks of the ascending channel pattern's support line getting breached are now higher.
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
US building permits jump 4.6%, while housing starts fall 2.6% in January
US building permits advanced more than expected whereas homebuilding activity weakened in January, official figures revealed on Thursday. The Commerce Department reported building permits rose 4.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 1.29 million in January, following the previous month's upwardly revised 1.23 million units and surpassing analysts' expectations for a 1.23 million-unit rate. 
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Trade Pattern Idea
GBP/AUD 4H Chart: Channel Down
At first glance one sees that the Pound is depreciating against the Australian Dollar in a simple descending channel pattern that has the characteristics of a typical medium term pattern.>>

CHF/SGD 4H Chart: Channel Up
Although the headline says that the pair is in an ascending channel, the Swiss Franc is preparing to decline against the Singapore Dollar. >>
Expert Commentary
"For the end of the first quarter this year, I see the Euro rallying to 1.15 versus the US Dollar, while the EUR/JPY currency pair I expect to trade at 115."
- Christian Apelt, FX strategist at Helaba, on Euro zone and EUR
Overall, we anticipate the US Dollar to weaken because of the President Donald Trump’s recent rheto-ric. We have already seen some uncertainty over the last couple of days and I would expect the Greenback to be quite over-worried, responding to political developments months after the election. >>
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Press Review
CNBC
Barclays Chief U.S. Economist Says Fed Skips March Hike
Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Barclays, and Mark McCormick, head of FX strategy for North America at TD Securities, discuss the Federal Reserve's rate path.
Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
June Release
The positive momentum in the Asia-Pacific region seems to have continued in June even despite soft global demand and signs that the Chinese investment-led recovery is coming to an end, as both short and long run sentiment indices soared in the measured month.
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 15:30 GMT.
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
“News that Trump formally ordered the US to withdraw fromthe Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal was largely expectedbut investors are watching to see just how far theprotectionist policies go.”

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