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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 05-02-2016 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 05/02/2016 15:16
Latest Expert Commentary
"There has been a lot of speculation about whether there might be a coordinated production cut; however, I think that it remains quite unlikely."
- Richard Mallinson, analyst at Energy Aspects, on oil
Oil futures finished higher last Tuesday on hopes that members of the OPEC and producers outside the cartel may reach an agreement to cut output to stem the persistent slump in oil prices. However, as Iran attempts to rapidly increase exports and Saudi Arabia signals little willingness to cut production, does the OPEC’s ability to boost prices remain existent?
Dukascopy Technical Analysis

NZD/USD loses to supply at 0.67
“The continued moderation in U.S. rate expectations continues to leave the [US Dollar] on the defensive.”
- CIBC (based on MarketWatch)
The falling resistance trend-line and the 200-day SMA between 0.67 and 0.6760 seem unlikely to let the New Zealand Dollar to appreciate more than it already has. Therefore, we are likely to return back to the trend-line that was established during the second half of January, namely to 0.6550, where support is also strengthened by the monthly pivot point.
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
BoE turns unanimous on rate decision
The Bank of England revised its economic growth forecasts due to a gloomier global outlook. Moreover, the lone policy maker who had voted for a rate hike in recent months unexpectedly changed his mind. The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee had voted 9-0 to keep rates on hold at a record-low 0.5%, where they have stayed for almost seven years. The central bank said sharp plunge in oil prices and equities, and significant risks in emerging economies, weighed on the global outlook, though sturdy domestic demand should ensure the UK growth still remained near its long-run average.
Expert Commentary
"There has been a lot of speculation about whether there might be a coordinated production cut; however, I think that it remains quite unlikely."
- Richard Mallinson, analyst at Energy Aspects, on oil
Oil futures finished higher last Tuesday on hopes that members of the OPEC and producers outside the cartel may reach an agreement to cut output to stem the persistent slump in oil prices. However, as Iran attempts to rapidly increase exports and Saudi Arabia signals little willingness to cut production, does the OPEC’s ability to boost prices remain existent?>>
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Press Review
Bloomberg
How Will Negative Rates Impact 10-Year Yield?
Janus Capital Management Fund Manager Bill Gross weighs in on negative interest rates.
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: EUR
The period, which put most of the observed indexes either on or above the baseline, resulted in a 0.6% gain for the EUR Index, making it the week’s second best performer.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
December Release
2015 was a tough year for the global economy amid geopolitical risks and migration crisis as well as slowdown in emerging markets, particularly in China. However, there was also a bright spot, with the US economy strengthening and the Fed feeling confident that the world’s number one economy could withstand the first interest rate hike in almost a decade.
Global Stock Market Review
Japanese equities added on BoJ announcement
Stock market in Japan performed to the upside during the January 25-29 trading week. The Bank of Japan eased its monetary policy. By a vote of 5 versus 4, BoJ policymakers adopted a negative interest rate policy on funds above certain thresholds that are deposited with the central bank. The news came in line with Friday's announcement that Japanese inflation came in well below target in 2015, rising only 0.5%.
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Commodity Overview
Industrial Metals Jump Amid BoJ’s Unexpected Easing
Aluminum posted slight gains in base metals on Friday, being driven by the unexpected monetary policy easing from the Bank of Japan, that lifted trader sentiment on the market. Metal’s futures for delivery in April rose 0.2% compared to the previous session’s end price, settling at $1,523 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange. Following this uptick, aluminum managed to close the prior trading week higher, posting a weekly increase of 3.08%.
Trade Pattern Idea
NZD/JPY 1H Chart: Double Top
NZD/JPY is considering the idea of breaching the closest possible support line, namely the 200-hour SMA at 77.94. It is shortly followed by the weekly pivot point and daily S2.>>

GBP/AUD 1D Chart: Channel Down
Since three weeks ago, when we last looked at GBP/AUD, the currency pair has once again confirmed the topicality of the channel. >>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 14:30 GMT.
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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