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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 23-04-2014 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 23/04/2014 16:06
Featured Product: Community Forecasts
Community member Daytrader21 on EUR/USD
"There is no clear direction for EUR/USD as we're still stuck into some congestion zones. The implied volatility is at all time low, so the first sign for a change in the trend is for a resurrection in the IV, until than I'm expecting the current environment to persist. Also, fundamentally speaking ECB reluctance to tame down deflationary pressure will put limited pressure to the upside for EUR/USD as only higher exchange rate will force ECB to take action."
Dukascopy Technical Analysis
"Financial institutions have reduced investment in domestic bonds, especially Japanese government bonds (JGBs), while increasing investment in relatively high-risk assets such as loans."
- Japan’s Central Bank (based on Reuters)
Today EUR/JPY breached the monthly PP at 141.70 and headed towards the major level at 142; however, when the level was reached a decline followed.
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
The latest fundamental data from the world’s largest economy was mixed, as inflation and retail sales picked up more than expected, while figures from the labour market disappointed markets. Moreover, Janet Yellen seems to be lost in her own projections, citing the ongoing economic recovery, and, at the same time, warning that harsh winter had stronger-than-expected effect on the economy.
Expert Commentary
"We actually do think that EUR/CHF will go up in the end, thus in the long term we forecast the pair to head towards 1.30."
- Jonathan Webb, Head of FX Strategy at Jefferies Bache, on Swiss Franc
Switzerland do have some concerns regarding its housing market as the mortgage lending has grown at a faster pace than the economy, and between 2008 and 2013 apartment prices increased by a quarter. Do you think that the central bank is paying enough attention to this matter? >>
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Press Review
Tim Lister
How will the Ukraine crisis end? Five possible scenarios
Ukraine's young government is running out of viable options for restoring its control of eastern regions and preserving the country's territorial integrity.
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: JPY
Both liquidity and volatility are usually reduced by market holidays in various countries and seasonal periods of subdued market interest, like the late summer and around the Easter and Christmas holidays.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
VIDEO version
The six-month global economic expectations improved by 0.02 in March and reached the level of 0.64, while the three-year sentiment index decreased for the second consecutive month and stood at 0.68, a Dukascopy Bank SA poll showed.
Global Stock Market Review
European shares
European shares rebounded from their weekly losses in the week ending April 17. The European stock markets finished higher on Thursday for a second consecutive day, as U.S. released better than expected manufacturing data and Goldman Sachs published better than forecast earnings results.
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Commodity Overview
Precious Metals Slump on U.S., Abating Supply Concerns in South Africa
Gold started the week on the negative note, plunging the most in 16 weeks, over 2%, late Monday on talks that accelerating inflation in the U.S. leaves more room for the Fed to tighten its policy.
Trade Pattern Idea
NZD/CAD Emerging Pattern: Triangle
The symmetrical triangle on the four-hour chart of NZD/CAD was initiated after the currency pair... >>

Weekly CHF/JPY Emerging Pattern: Triangle
There is a high-quality and high-magnitude symmetrical triangle forming on the daily chart of CHF/JPY. >>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 15:30 GMT.
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This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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