Volatility continues to decline in the EUR/PLN. The total daily range in May was only 2.2 percent. This compares to over 4.7 percent in the month prior. The open to close range was even tighter at only 0.45 percent. On the chart we marked May 2016 with a rectangle to make it easier to spot.



With the summer season slowly creeping in, we will probably see volatility and volume continue their downward trends. This will mean more of the same boring ranges in the EUR/PLN. Our second chart below a longer-term snapshot of this pair. For the past five years, the EUR/PLN has stayed between a low of 3.9600 and a high of 4.6000.



Another factor that may cap any movement is the placement of the current Fibonacci levels. We're currently quoted at 4.3862, hovering above the 50% Fibonacci of the large downmove this year from 4.51 to 4.22. This important Fib figure is at 4.3686. Another important Fib number is the 61%, at 4.4022. I expect prices to remain locked in between these two Fibonacci levels so placing my forecast at 4.3864.
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