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EUR/PLN Still Inside Five-Year Range

The EUR/PLN continues to trade inside a five-year range. Since the start of 2011 this pair has moved without a clear trend or direction. We opened 2012 at 4.4464 and we're currently quoted at 4.2964, only 3.37% away. This is a negligible amount for four years and 9 months of trading.
On the lower time-frames things aren't looking great for momentum traders either. Notice how directionless ranges prevail here as well. Another reason why am I betting on the pair staying near the current price is t…
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No Change Expected for Turkish Lira

I expect to see little change in the price of the Turkish Lira versus the Euro. Exhibit A below shows that the pair has been stuck in a triangle pattern for the past 14 months (since August of 2015). This a trend-continuation pattern if prices finally manage to break through. But until that happens, betting on more of the same is a no-brainer.
Exhibit B shows a snapshot of the daily price movements. We again notice how the EUR/TRY is trading mostly range-bound since March of this year. We opened…
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No Clear Trends Seen in AUD/NZD

No clear trend can be seen in the AUD/NZD. Volatility has been high at times with prices hitting a high of 1.1676 last August and a low of 1.0019 in April 2015. But no major changes happened in price as we saw the pair snap back from the extremes.
The two economies of Australia and New Zealand are closely linked thus range-bound movement seems to the norm for this pair. The short-term daily chart below confirm this view. We've made no progress in this pair since June of this year. Furthermore th…
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Brexit Support Will Not Hold

Cable has been relatively stable post-Brexit. The lows hit shortly after the event have yet to be broken. But the bears are not giving up yet! On our first chart below we can see that prices have made two attempts post-Brexit to crack the 1.2800 support. So far the level is holding but with each new test, the odds increase that we will see a break.
On our next chart below we can see that the long-term trend for GBP/USD has been down. We are currently quoted over 4,000 pips below the highs noted…
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More of the Same for the Euro

September was another range-bound month for the Euro. The total monthly range high to low was only 203 pips. The open to close range was even smaller at only 85 pips.
On the monthly chart below we see the latest month as an inside bar. This underscores just how slow things have been in this pair. Furthermore we're still in a larger range since March of 2015. The top and bottom of this area can be found at 1.0462 and 1.1713.
While eventually we will get a breakout, ranges can persist far longer t…
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Singapore Dollar to Stay Put

I'm expecting the Singapore Dollar to stay put in October and here's why. First the pair made a 'near doji' candle in September. I say near because the open was at 1.3622 while the close was at 1.3619, not EXACTLY the same as required by the theory. But for a monthly chart, this is close enough.
The doji signals indecision in the market. Neither the bulls nor the bears could make any headway this month so we ended up right where we opened. Furthermore on our next chart below we can see that sinc…
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High Volatility, Low Price Changes

High volatility but small price changes. That's how we can characterize September for the EUR/JPY. The pair rallied to a high of 116.35 then fell to a monthly low at 112.07. But the open to close price change was much less impressive at only 138 pips.
Our next chart below demonstrates my point more clearly. Notice how the EUR/JPY is slowly forming a triangle pattern. This means that the ranges are getting narrower and narrower. Thus I'm betting on prices slowly calming down in ever tighter range…
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Aussie Knocking on Crucial Resistance Area

The Aussie is knocking on a crucial 80 pips-wide resistance area. Look at our chart below. We’ve been testing this general area between 0.7677 and 0.7757 for the past several months. Each time the bulls got repelled at a different price inside this resistance cluster. But with each test, the odds increase that we will see a bullish breakout.
On our second chart below we can see that the AUD/USD has finally broke the downward sloping trendline. This is an important development and could give the…
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EUR/GBP Nearing Resistance Cluster

After a long rally that saw the EUR/GBP advance in 8 out of the last 10 months, the pair may finally hit a roadblock. We are nearing a cluster of resistance levels. They start with 0.8724, last month's high, continue with 0.8768 (August 2013 high) and end with 0.8814, a four-year high for this currency pair.
But there are signs that the bull run is slowing down. On the daily chart below notice the constant decline in the Average Daily Range. This is a proxy for volatility. Furthermore since reac…
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Overhead Resistance Continues to Keep a Lid on Prices

The overhead resistance in the EUR/SEK continues to keep a lid on prices. On the chart below we can see a general area between 9.600 and 9.7200. Notice the many spikes near this area in the past. This signals strong selling pressure.
We are currently quoted at 9.6252, so we're right inside this resistance area. This means that any price gains should be minimal. In September we traded to a high of 9.6654 but the pair again met heavy selling to bring it down to current levels around 9.62-9.63 Euro…
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More Gains for the Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen is slated for more gains against the US Dollar. Look at our first chart below. Notice how for the past four months the bears have been on the offensive, selling every rally and attacking the round 100 figure. The small rectangles on the chart show the tests of this level, a total six of them.
With each test the odds increase that we will see a break below. But if we see a decline, where will prices stop in October? I’m betting on close to 96.16 and here’s why. Not far from 100 …
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AUD/CAD Little Changed in Decades

The AUD/CAD is trading little changed in decades, as you can see on our first chart below. There is a fundamental reason for this, both the Aussie and the Loonie are commodity currencies. Commodities tend to rally or fall together in giant super-cycles. So more often then not, if the AUD is under pressure so will be the CAD, leading to no major price move against each other.
But let's drill down a bit. On our next chart below we can see what has been happening inside that small rectangle marked …
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Swiss Franc Little Changed

The Swiss Franc will continue to trade little changed against the US Dollar. In September the pair closed lower by only 128 pips, with a high to low range of only 245 pips. Furthermore notice how on the daily chart below there have been no major price changes since March of this year. We opened April 2016 at 0.9611 and we're currently quoted only 101 pips higher at 0.9712.
But let's zoom out a bit. Look at the monthly chart below. That giant spikey bar in the middle is the SNB peg removal in Jan…
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Seven-Year Uptrend to Continue

The seven-year uptrend in the SP500 is set to continue. Look at the monthly chart below. This US Stock Index is now in one of the longest bull runs in history. Of course eventually the party will end. But until it does, it would be unwise to bet on red.
On the second chart below we can see a shorter-term view of the market. Notice the classic V-shaped pattern below. This is a bullish pattern. It signals that the bears have been trapped by the sudden price rise. More gains should follow from her…
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