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EUR/USD Bounces Off Long-Term Support

I think the losses for the Euro are coming to an end. Our first chart below shows reason number one. The pair recently bounced off 1.0522. This is a long-term support level that held up prices for the past 18 months. Not far from here we find another level, the 1.0462 swing low. This is a multi-year for the Euro. The last time the single currency traded below here was all the way back in 2003.
On our second chart we see a glimpse of the trading on the lower time-frame. Notice how during the past…
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EUR/JPY Overbought on Multiple Timeframes

The EUR/JPY is overbought on most time-frames. The first picture below shows a daily chart. Notice how the Stochastic Oscillator traded above the 80 line and is now coming down. This is a classic overbought signal followed by a confirmation, the moving down back below the 80 line.
Exhibit number two shows us the situation on the 4 Hour chart. Here too the pair is flashing an overbought signal. The Stoch is printing a value of 91 right now. The pair is stretched to extreme levels.
Our final chart…
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Turkish Lira to Continue Stabilization

The month of November started out unusually busy for the EUR/TRY. This pair usually doesn't move much. But in the aftermath of the US election, we saw a spike all the way to the 3.6900 level. Over 20 days later and the pair still can't surpass the highs seen on November 10th. This shows that we're finally stabilizing.
But that's only reason number one why I'm betting on stabilization in the EUR/TRY. The second reason is shown on the hourly chart below. Notice how no clear momentum can be seen he…
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Pound to Head Toward 1.3000

It’s been a rough two-and-half years for the Pound. The pair lost over 5,000 pips from its highs back in July 2014. But even during the middle of that carnage we had some ‘dead cat’ bounces. On our first chart below notice how we get these small rallies whenever the Stochastic Oscillator dips below 20 and then recovers and heads higher.
With hindsight these small uptrends may not seem like much on first glance, keep in mind that this is a monthly chart. The duration of one TA contest cycle enco…
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False Breakout for the Swedish Krona

The Euro rallied strongly against the Swedish Krona at the end of October. It even broke above the long-term resistance near 9.7300. But as can be seen on the chart below, all those gains evaporated in a span of few weeks. We are now quoted at 9.7713, only 0.41% away from the 9.7300 breakout point.
The strong rejection of the upside move and the near-complete retracement to the breakout point suggests that the rally in this pair is over. As we can see on the chart below, all previous breakouts, …
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More of the Same for EUR/PLN

The EUR/PLN continues to trade inside a large range. As you can see on the monthly chart below, since the start of 2011 this pair has moved without a clear trend or direction. We opened 2012 at 4.4464 and we're currently quoted at 4.4515, almost no change in prices for several years of trading.
The picture doesn't improve if we go down time-frames either. Since December of last year we've been trading in a tight range that fits inside the larger congestion area noted above. On our second chart b…
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EUR/GBP Enters a Cluster of Levels

The Pound is not having a good year. It's down against almost all majors and that includes the Euro as well. This pair initially rallied to a high of 0.9326 this year, over 2,000 pips above he lows hit in November of last year. But as we can see on the first chart below, that may be changing.
We're now quoted at 0.8468, almost 900 pips below the highs. Notice how the EUR/GBP is now entering a cluster of levels, both resistance and support. On the downside we have 0.8248 and 0.8335. On the upside…
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Aussie to Make a Break for 0.8000

It’s been a good year for the Australian Dollar. The pair is up by 200 pips this year. This may not look like much but keep in mind that these gains were made in the context of general Dollar strength. Our first chart bellows shows the tentative but clear uptrend in 2016.
On our next chart we can see the same momentum higher but on a lower timeframe chart. While other pairs continue to suffer after Trump’s election win, the AUD/USD is heading higher. With both the long-term trend and the short-…
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Singapore Dollar Will Return to Range-bound Trading

I expect to see the Singapore Dollar to return to range-bound trading and here's why. Despite the volatility during the past few weeks, this pair is still well inside the range seen since 2015, as can be seen on the chart below. We are now nearing the crucial resistance level at 1.4441. I don't think the pair will continue higher.
Look at the 8,3,3 Stochastic. It's flashing a value of over 80, signalling overbought market territory. The same can be seen on our next pic below, on the 4 Hour chart…
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New Zealand Dollar to Rally Further

The New Zealand Dollar is having a good year. The currency is up by 259 pips against the U.S. Dollar since January 1st. On our first chart below we see that after bottoming out in the middle of last year, it’s been a slow but steady grind higher.
This is confirmed further by looking at lower timeframe chart. Below we see the same momentum higher on the 4 Hour chart. I expect this to continue into year-end. The post-election USD rally seems to be exhausting itself and this should benefit my long …
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Japanese Yen to Gain Back Some Lost Ground

The Japanese Yen got sold aggressively in the aftermath of the US election. The USD/JPY is up by over 1,100 pips from the lows on November 9th. This large move only took 15 days to unfold. By any standard this is aggressive. I think prices have gone up too much, too fast.
My first chart above confirms this. This is a daily chart of the currency pair. We can see that the Stochastic Oscillator was in overbought territory for several days. But this in itself is not enough. We need confirmation. Rec…
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