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More Losses for the Euro

May wasn't kind to the Euro. The pair lost 319 pips and is currently quoted at 1.1133, near to the monthly lows at 1.1098. Looks like we're going to have a close just above the lows, this is a bearish signal on its own. It clearly demonstrates the downward momentum in this pair.
I'm betting on more losses for Europe's single currency. I'm pinning my target at 1.0721, right above this year's low at 1.0710. I think the bears will have a hard time breaking past this level, at least on the first try…
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Some Calm for the Singapore Dollar?

The Singapore Dollar had a volatile year. First the bears took prices down from a high of 1.4440 in January to a low of 1.3349 in April. This month we're seeing a bit of a US Dollar resurgence with prices closing 335 pips higher in May. But as you can see on the chart below, the last two weekly candles were small, indicating slowing down of the price action.
Looking at things on a more long-term basis, the USD/SGD is now trading near the same levels as back in March of 2015. So all that volatili…
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More of the Same for AUD/CAD

May has been fairly uneventful for the AUD/CAD currency pair. While we had a relatively large range of over 300 pips, we just closed the month at 0.9466, only 69 pips away from the open.
On a long-term perspective (monthly chart below), we can see that the AUD/CAD just ended a period of high volatility. While one month of indecisiveness is good, on the chart we can see that these calming periods usually last much longer, multiple months and even years sometimes.
Both the AUD and CAD are commodit…
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USD/JPY in for a Strong Rally

The USD/JPY could be in for a strong rally. The pair closed May on a high note, currently at 110.66 from a high of 111.44 yesterday. The daily chart below shows just how consistent this uptrend has been. Notice the nice stair-step climb with little retracement.
Things are looking bullish on the long-term charts as well. Here the USD/JPY has been in a strong uptrend since the end of 2012. In fact the past few months of losses are the exception not the rule. With both the long-term and short-term …
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EUR/GBP Range-Bound in June

THE EUR/GBP had a volatile few weeks. First we rallied to a high of 0.8116 then fell to a low of 0.7564. A lot of this movement is fundamental-based, linked with the coming UK referendum. But recent polls seem to indicate voters slowly congregating around the the ''Remain'' camp and this is bringing much needed stability back in GBP pairs.
My second point why I'm betting on a range in this pair is past history. After periods of high volatility, the EUR/GBP usually spends a long locked in a range…
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More of the Same in EUR/SEK

The EUR/SEK continues to trade locked in a relatively tight range. During May the total movement, low to high, was only 2.4 percent. The pair closed the month at 9.2706, barely 1 percent higher.
The long-term chart doesn't look any better for trend traders. Since the start of 2015 the EUR/SEK has been trading in a tight range between 9.0500 and 9.6800. Thus it seems logical to bet on more of the same for this pair. I'm forecasting 9.2737.
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Volatility Dying Down in EUR/PLN

Volatility continues to decline in the EUR/PLN. The total daily range in May was only 2.2 percent. This compares to over 4.7 percent in the month prior. The open to close range was even tighter at only 0.45 percent. On the chart we marked May 2016 with a rectangle to make it easier to spot.
With the summer season slowly creeping in, we will probably see volatility and volume continue their downward trends. This will mean more of the same boring ranges in the EUR/PLN. Our second chart below a lon…
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Potentially Large Gains for Cable

We could potentially see large gains in Cable. The pair has been repressed in the past year by political instability. First by the Scottish independence referendum last year and now by the coming EU exit referendum. But as time goes on the 'Remain' camp continues to secure the lead. This could lead to some short squeezing as we get closer to the referendum date in June.
On the daily chart below we can see a completed reverse Head and Shoulders pattern. This signals that more gains could be on th…
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EUR/JPY Monthly Range Cut in Half

The EUR/JPY had a slow month. We closed May higher by 152 pips or only 1.2 percent. We opened the month at 121.72 and closed it at 123.23. Even the high/low range is not much bigger at 316 pips. This compared with +600 pips ranges in each of the four previous months.
If we drill down on the lower time-frame charts this aimless volatility is even easier to notice. Until we break either 124.66 or 121.47 the prudent course of action is to bet on prices staying flat.
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Failed Breakout in EUR/TRY

The EUR/TRY had a failed breakout in May. Prices rallied all the way to a high of 3.4218 before being pushed back down. We are currently quoted at 3.2820. This V-shaped pattern signals a reversal. In normal times this could mean extended losses for the pair.
But if we go higher in time-frames on the weekly, we can see that the EUR/TRY is inside a large wedge. This is also why prices had such a sharp reversal when they hit the top of this wedge. While the pair remains inside this formation, betti…
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