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EUR/USD to Continue Directionless Trading

The EUR/USD has been moving with no clear direction since May of this year. Look at the chart below. That large red bar shows Brexit day. We're now quoted at 1.1155, less then 10 pips away from the 50% retracement of that large move. That underscores how range-bound this pair has been in the past few months.
But things aren't looking great on the higher timeframes either. Notice how since about March of 2015 the Euro has been stuck in a relatively large range, marked with a rectangle on the char…
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Clashing Trends in the EUR/JPY

We're having two contradicting trends develop in the EUR/JPY. On the shorter time-frame, a tentative bullish trend has developed in the past few days. See the 4h chart below. We're now up over 250 pips from the lows recorded last Friday.
But things are looking quite the opposite on the longer-term charts. Note the strong downward trend on the weekly chart below. Since peaking out at 149.78 in December of 2014, the EUR/JPY has been in a bearish trend. The low was hit at 109.48 this June, post-Bre…
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USD/JPY Targets Brexit Highs

The USD/JPY is finally trending up after a long bear market. After some Dollar positive comments at Jackson Hole the pair got a lift. We’re now trading 336 pips higher from the lows marked on August 26th.
Where can we look for a potential target? The average monthly range in this pair has been 520 pips. But that’s low to high, not open to close. A more conservative target would be in the 300 pips range.
On our chart above we see a level that qualifies. The pre-Brexit highs at 106.80 are importa…
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More of the Same for the EUR/PLN

The EUR/PLN has been stuck in a range for the past few years. We opened the year 2012 at 4.4464 and we're not quoted at 4.3593, a move of only 2.2 percent.
The shorter-term charts are painting a similar picture. We're trading barely changed compared to one month ago. On the weekly chart below we can see that this pair respects the Bollinger Bands. Whenever the pair ventured outside these Bands, it was snapped back inside. We're now right at the middle of the BBands, a neutral zone.
The powerful …
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Range Continues to Constrict in the EUR/GBP

After a volatile start to the summer (with the Brexit commotion), the EUR/GBP is slowly calming down. Volatility continues to decline. While June had a range of close to 800 pips, in July the low to high movement was only 377 pips. And this month the range dropped even lower to 279 pips. Meanwhile the open to close range is at even smaller at 45 pips. On the chart below we can see volatility declining in the EUR/GBP.
But volatility isn't everything. Currencies can continue to grind higher or lo…
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Singapore Dollar Downtrend Rejected

For a third time this year, the downtrend in the USD/SGD has been rejected. On the chart below we marked these 3 rejections with smaller rectangles. This rejection forces the pair back into its range. The general area of support is around 1.3300 to 1.3350. On the top side, the resistance is around 1.3800 to 1.3841.
This particular range has been unbroken since March of this year. But the USD/SGD has been trading undecided for over a year now. Let's take a look at this range on the weekly chart. …
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Buying the Pullback?

With the Brexit panic subsiding , the GBP/USD could finally find a bottom. On the 4 Hour chart below we see an interesting formation. We were in an upward trend which then stalled on some post-Jackson Hole Dollar gains. But now we're moving back up again. This could be a classic buy the pullback opportunity.
Another reason why more gains may follow is the oversold situation in Cable. On the weekly chart below we can see how unrelenting and one-sided the selling has been since 2014. We're now dow…
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EUR/SEK Nearing Resistance Cluster

The EUR/SEK is again nearing a resistance cluster. On the chart below we can see all the different times this area has been tested in the past. Once at 9.72 then at 9.68 then at 9.67 then at 9.61 and finally at 9.60. But while the exact level of the bounce varied, in each of those instances the bulls were repelled.
On the lower timeframe we can see a similar range-bound scenaro playing out. All summer we've stayed in this range albeit with some bullish bias. I think this bullish bias will limit …
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Turkish Lira Still Stuck in Large Triangle

Volatility in the Turkish Lira is still subdued. The pair continues to trade inside a large triangle (see below). Until prices finally breakout higher or lower, we're going to see more of the same i.e. ever narrower ranges.
On the second picture below you can see the second reason why I'm betting on no change in September at 3.3015. The EUR/TRY spent all summer inside a range, bouncing between the highs at 3.42 and the lows near 3.17. The 50% Fib retracement of this range is at 3.30, which is al…
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AUD/NZD to Reverse at Support

The AUD/NZD is nearing important support, this year's low for the pair at 1.0309. We're now quoted at 1.0379 after trading as low as 1.0349 just few hours earlier.
The second reason why I'm betting on a reversal rally here is ho oversold the AUD/NZD is right now. Note the Stochastic on the 4 Hour chart is below 20, signalling oversold territory. My target is 1.0741, right below this summer's highs in this pair. I think a 400 pips rally is about the max the AUD/NZD can do in one month.
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