Monthly chart

As most major pairs, Aussie accelerated its decline in the first month of the year and convincingly broke below 0.80 level and 50.0% retracement of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend. In the following four months it traded mostly between 0.7550 and 0.7950, but tried to break higher in the end of April. The breakout proved to be fake as the pair returned back to the range in May and then broke in the opposite direction in July to resume the downtrend. It is currently holding near the 0.70 level.

Weekly chart

There appears to be good demand between 61.8% retracement (of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend) and 0.70 big figure level. Establishing sustained foothold above the retracement and 20 week SMA would be bullish, but the pair may need to break and hold above the 0.75 level and perhaps 50 week SMA to signal that a more substantial bounce or even reversal is underway.

Daily chart

After spending first half of the year mostly in 0.7550 - 0.7950 range, the pair broke lower in July. In a bout of risk-off selling on August 24th, the pair fell sharply and broke below the above-mentioned 61.8% retracement in the process. The decline stopped short ahead of 0.69 and the pair has been broadly consolidating since, though the higher lows suggest a possibility that a deeper pullback may be in the making.


Technical and fundamental weakness is likely to continue to weigh on the pair. RBA is expected to be on hold for the time being but to maintain their easing bias, especially if lacklustre data stream from Australia persists. In addition, uncertainty regarding Fed lift-off may lead to further consolidation in the weeks ahead. On the 1st of December, 2015, at 12:00 GMT, the pair may find itself at 0.7275.
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