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Predicting AUD/SGD.

There has been quite a remarkable fall in AUD/SGD from the levels of 1.309 seen in April 2013 to 0.975 touched in February this year. In last one year AUD/SGD seems to have formed a good base on the levels of 0.98-0.99. Now finally on weekly charts AUD/SGD has broken above the downward trending price channel. It confirms that more or less the downtrend of AUD/SGD which lasted for more than three years is coming to end. Though it has failed to cross above the 200 WMA , i am expecting the uptrend …
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A look at EUR/SEK

EUR/SEK is in up trend since April 2013 when it had formed a double bottom on monthly charts. In October there has been a new breakout on weekly charts which should take it to 10.03 unless there is a significant external development which may cause the trend to breakdown.
If look at daily charts it is trading above both 200 DMA and 50 EMA which confirms it's upward bias in short term.
I am expecting EUR/SEK to remain in correction mode for few days before it will resume it's rally towards the ta…
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Predicting SGD/JPY

SGD/JPY is in consolidation phase since touching the low of 72.35 on 23 June 2016 the day of brexit. The level 72.35 is also 61.8 Fibonacci Retracement of previous rally from the low of 57.9 touched in September 2011 to the high of 92.8 touched in June 2015. It is finding a good support in the range of 73.5-74 for last three months. There is also a upside break of trend line coming in the last week October 2016. I am expecting it to rally towards 77.4 in coming two months.
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Waiting for DAX breakout.

DAX broke on the upside of weekly downward trend line in Aug 2016. In last three months it is treading sideways with weekly trend line acting as support.
Yesterday after US presidential election results were announced it rallied from the low of 10040 to 10700 as of now. There are not many scheduled risk events till FOMC next month. If not for any unforeseen risk off event I am expecting the rally to continue this month till the horizontal resistance of 11400. There might be some correction post…
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Predicting EUR/GBP

In past one year EUR/GBP has rallied more than 30% from low 69.8 in November 2015 to 93.2 touched in October on day of GBP flash crash. It is now giving up some of the gains made after June brexit vote in June as High Court has ruled against the UK governments right to revoke Article 50 which binds it with EU. EUR/GBP may remain in correction mode till hearing is complete in Supreme Court on Brexit issue. Even though I am expecting the underlying bullish trend on weekly charts to remain intact.
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Anticipating Fed Rate hike.

Mr Donald Trumps victory has bolstered markets expectation that finally Fed will be pulling the trigger on Federal fund rates after almost waiting for a year. Recent NFP data and PCE price index data have been in line with FOMC requirements for raising interest rates.
EUR/USD has been treading in a very tight range of 6 to 7 percent for last two years after falling to 1.05 in March 2015 from the levels of 1.4 touched in May 2014.
I think it is in the last phase of consolidation before the new br…
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Anticipating Upside in Nikkei 225

There was a remarkable rally in Japaneses Nikkei 225 Index from July 2012 to July 2015 which took it from the levels 8300 to all time highs of around 20900. The August 2015 crash in Chines equities and later on commodities driven crash in February 2016 brought it down to sub 15000 levels. It has been consolidating for past 10 months while fallowing the headwinds in broader global markets.
As we can see on weekly charts there seems a nice break out on the upside of downward sloping trend line. It…
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Predicting CAD/JPY

In the pair of CAD/JPY there are not many reasons for CAD to appreciate but still CAD/JPY may rise as JPY has been depreciating against most currencies in wake of increasing Fed rate hike bets. Moreover if the OPEC members agree for Crude Oil production cap deal it will be a boost to the CAD/JPY.
On the weekly charts CAD/JPY has been in the down trend since December 2014. As of now there is not much clarity on trend on longer time frame but I am expecting the current bullish headwinds for the CA…
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Predicting FRA.IDX/EUR

CAC40 of France touched a life time high of 5280 in April 2015 before China equity crash of August 2015 brought it down. There is a good support on the levels of 3900 on weekly charts from where it has rebounded thrice in last three years. This year it has shown a good recovery of more than 10% since brexit which had taken it again near the weekly support range. CAC40 has failed to show much momentum of its own on either side this year while largely reacting to global developments which have kep…
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A look at Hong Kong Index.

HKG.IDX had a nightmarish start to the 2016 when it plunged nearly 20% in couple of days. After there has been no looking back for HKG.IDX. If we consider major world indices performance from February 2016 onwards it easily one of the best performing index worldwide. It had risen nearly 35% from February low of 18000 to its yearly high touched in September of 24400.
Of late there has been coming selling pressure on HKG.IDX in large volumes. Donald Trumps election to the White house has give rise…
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Taking a contrary view in NZD/JPY

I am bearish on JPY for next few months which implies I should have taken a bullish view on NZD/JPY. Contrary to my own assumptions I have decided to make a bearish forecast for NZD/JPY considering the factors that equity markets worldwide may go into correction mode post Fed rate hike in December if it does happen. In such scenarios JPY being a safe heaven asset may begin to appreciate. NZD has come into bearish grip lately as the economic data for last two months has been below expectation of …
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Silver is on a slipery slope.

Silver (XAG/USD) has broken below the very important support levels on weekly and daily charts. Mr Trump's US presidential victory has strengthened the US dollar to a year high which is having a negative impact on the commodities like silver.
There are not much chances of any recovery in silver given the high probability of Fed Rate hike next months.
I am expecting the silver prices to drop further to it's next significant support level of 14.9 in next two months.
Tools used: EMAs of 200, 50 and…
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Gold: Waiting for the Fed's trigger

Gold is treading with a downward bias since touching it's lifetime high of $1919/oz in September 2011. Global recession of 2008 and economic slowdown afterwards had taken the Gold prices to exorbitant levels. There has been a considerable improvement in economic outlook for world economy which has sent the Golds prices tumbling in last five years. This year Gold had risen on back of equity market crash in January and then brexit in June which took it to the yearly highs of $1374/oz.
Now increasi…
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A look at EUR/TRY

A look at EUR/TRY monthly charts shows us text book case of uptrend pattern. The trend has gathered momentum this month as a weekly break out came in first week of the month. It should advance towards the levels of 3.72 which also 61.2 Fibonacci expansion from recent trough.As EUR/TRY reaches the upper band of current price estimates, I am expecting it to spend few weeks consolidating on those levels. My target for the 2nd January 2017 is 3.701
Tools used: Fibonacci expansion, 200 EMA, trend lin…
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Predicting EUR/NZD

EUR/NZD has been in the down trend on the weekly charts since August 2015 when it had touched 1.950. Since then it has given up on more than 20% of it's value to the current levels of 1.5. From July 2016 onwards it has been treading sideways in absence of any major trigger. After US elections there has been fresh weakness in Euro which may cause the EUR/NZD to break on the downside.
I am expecting the EUR/NZD to stabilize around the levels of 1.450 in the short to medium term. 1.450 is also happ…
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Predicting EUR/AUD

EUR/AUD has been forming the lower highs on weekly charts since the August 2015 high of 1.659. The support was coming on the levels of 1.45 for most part of 2016. In October it has broken below the crucial support of 1.45. This has created the possibility that EUR/AUD prices may go down even further.If we look on the weekly charts next support happens to be around the levels of 1.38. I am expecting the EUR/AUD to retest those levels and consolidate there for few weeks. My target for 2nd January …
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Is Mr Trump rallying the USD/JPY?

Tide seems to have turned for USD/JPY from bearish of last one year to bullish for at least a year or two. The major fuel for the turnaround seems to be the expectations around Mr Trumps fiscal expansionary policies. If Mr Trump announces measures like increase in Infrastructure spending and promised tax cuts, US govt will have to issue new debt. It will most probably increase fiscal deficit. The very likely hood of such policies may cause the Federal Reserve to tighten the monetary policy soone…
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Uptrend in CHF/JPY to continue.

CHF/JPY was in downtrend from June 2015 to June 2016 when it came down nearly 30% within a year. If we look from June 2016 to October 2016 it has been sideways within a very narrow range of nearly 5 %.
Now it seems to be gathering fresh momentum to rally upwards. In start of November it has broken out of down trending price channel. I think this rally should continue given the backdrop of Fed rate hike looming large.
On daily charts the CHF/JPY has crossed above the 200 DMA which confirms our b…
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Predicting USD/CAD..

USD/CAD has been in uptrend for last four years on monthly charts. There is no new development which may change the trend. There has been a sizable correction in the beginning of the year. Now USD/CAD seems to be advancing towards it's previous highs.
On weekly charts it has taken a good support on upward trend line which is signaling a bullish continuation. My target for 2nd January 2017 is 1.388.
Tools used: Trend lines, Fibonacci expansion, 200 EMA and price actions.
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Predicting AUD/CAD

AUD/CAD was forming Lower highs lower lows on montlhy charts since January 2012 to December 2015. In 2016 it seemed it may change the course and turn into bullish trend till this month in which it has given up nearly 40% of the gains made from April 2016 to October 2016.
Now I am expecting AUD/CAD towards monthly 200 EMA as there is a chance of OPEC crude oil production cap deal. My target for the 2nd January 2017 is 0.9620.
Tools used: 200 EMA, Trend lines, Bollinger bands and price actions.
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