Indicators: RSI, Volatility, Volume, HMM



Key price levels : 1.0667 1.09029 1.10029


Weekly Charts pattern : resistance line , W1 Chart.


Weekly Vision


AUD/NZD is moving in a slightly bullish dynamics. The chart analysis suggests a slightly bullish trend and can be supported by the RSI momentum indicator, Parabolic Sar distribution integrated with a Volume and Standard Deviation analysis. The resistance and the support line of the channel are evaluated at 1.0929 this zone could be a retracement zone considering the Hidden Stochastic Level.


Daily Vision


The D1 scale indicates that AUD/NZD pattern is in a bullish dynamics with a possible retracement considering that is around the resistance zone. This resistance line can lead to a possible and a slightly bearish dynamics. There is the possibility of a triangle figure pattern with the similar slope of trend. The China monetary policy and the AUD trade balance should support the bearish regime.


Forecast evaluation


To give an evaluation of the possible movements of the cross it is utilized the Hidden Markov indicator techniques.
With the combination of the price lines and the stochastic Hidden Markov Processes are indicated two possible forecast value.
  1. The forecast value in the bearish is evaluated at 1.06982
  2. The forecast with the trendless is evaluated at 1.1002

Figure 1 describes in a W1 chart the trendlines with the key price levels.




Figure 2 exhibits the hypothetical path and the forecast value






Forecast
Considering the slope of the trends, the key level price and the possible retracement it can be evaluated a forecast price level at
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