Indicators: RSI, Volatility, Volume, HMM

Key price levels : 1.06822 1.05019 1.0301


Weekly Charts pattern : resistance line , W1 Chart.

Weekly Vision

AUD/NZD is moving in a slightly bearish dynamics. The chart analysis suggests a slightly bearish trend and can be supported by the RSI momentum indicator, Parabolic Sar distribution integrated with a Volume and Standard Deviation analysis. The resistance and the support line of the channel are evaluated at 1.06822 - 1.0301.

Daily Vision

The D1 scale indicates that AUD/NZD pattern is in a bearish dynamics with a possible objective a between the at 1.05019 zone. This support line can lead to a possible retracement and a slightly bullish dynamics. There is the possibility of a triangle figure pattern with the similar slope of trend. The China monetary policy and the AUD trade balance should support the bearish regime.

Forecast evaluation

To give an evaluation of the possible movements of the cross it is utilized the Hidden Markov indicator techniques.
With the combination of the price lines and the stochastic Hidden Markov Processes are indicated two possible forecast value.
  1. The forecast value in the bullish is evaluated at 1.06822
  2. The forecast with the bearish is evaluated at 1.05019

Figure 1 describes in a W1 chart the trendlines with the key price levels.


Figure 2 exhibits the hypothetical path and the forecast value





Forecast

Considering the slope of the trends, the key level price and the posible retracement it can be evaluated a forecast price level at 1.05019.
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