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EUR/USD Elliott Wave Count

Since mid of last year EUR/USD has been developing quite a strong bearish trend and based on Elliott Wave cycle (see Figure 1) we still have a lot further to go. Currently we can count 3 waves of major degree and with wave number IV currently being under development. Usually during this stage of the cycle we should expect some consolidation and an ABC correction. Right now we're still in the initial phase of this whole corrective move as we only managed to develop wav…
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USD/CHF in Correction Mode

Even thought back in January USD/CHF crashed due the SNB Black Swan even, caused by SNB decision to abandon the 1.2 peg, we're back near parity level, and this is all due to the US dollar exceptional rally. The broad based dollar strength was playing a key role in this impressive recovery and we should see this pair above current year high around 1.0200 level as soon as the dollar bullish trend resume. However right now we're trading inside a big corrective price structure.
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USD/JPY Neverending Consolidation

USD/JPY has been unable to sustain any gains during this year and we have moved in a big range for the most part of the year. Even though we managed to make a marginal new high above 122.00 the momentum slowed down and we're back inside the range. Current range extends from the 122.00 resistance level all the way down to 116.00 level (see Figure 1) where we have a strong support and where I'm expecting price to hold and revers to resume to bigger bullish trend we're in. We're in a …
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NZDJPY Range Box Effect

NZD/JPY has been moving over the paste few years in a big range boxes and that's usually the case with a lot of pair crosses as this is their normal behavior. In Figure 1 we can see how this price action looks like. Usually when we enter in the territory of a new range boxes the new boxes that will form in the right side of the chart will use the middle of the range box from the left as the top and as the
bottom will use the middle of the box from beneath the price action where mos…
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NZD/CHF

On an intraday level we can count the Elliott Wave cycle which suggest that there is more room to the downside. Currently we have developed only 3 wave and we're in the stage of developing wave IV before another leg lower which can take shape of another 5 wave cycle of lower degree. Right now wave number IV should end at 0.7000 big psychological number and round number. In this regard we should expect one more push higher towards the 0.7000 big round number to complete the ABC p
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Silver Broken Trendline

Silver bearish trend may have ended once we broke the trendline that connects the 2011 highs and all the intermediate highs of this bearish trend. This bearish cycle has lasted almost 4 years and based on my experience any new major trend starts with a trendline breakout of previous trend. We already broke to the upside of the trendline that connects the highs of this bearish trend at beginning of the year(see Figure 1), and not only that but we had a successful retest of th…
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AUD/NZD Elliott Wave Cycle Completed

Based on Elliott Wave cycle if we count the move that started from the 2011 high (see Figure 1) all the way down to 2015 parity level we can tell that we have done a five wave move and us such we may consider the downtrend in the final stage. Right now we should be looking for a ABC corrective stage that should at least bring the price near the highs of wave IV at around the 1.1300 level.
Major Levels to watch:
[list=1][/list]…
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EUR/JPY Elliott Wave Cycle Completed

Based on the Elliott Wave analysis EUR/JPY has completed a five wave sequence from the 2012 bottom and right now we're in a corrective process which should keep this pair in a wide range. For the time being the 136.00 level and pivot point should act as support and because we're entering the summer time period where liquidity is generally low and usually the market is moving in a tight range we should expect the market stay inside the 136.00-130.00 range.
Major Levels to
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EUR/NZD WXY Pattern

Based on Elliott Wave analysis EUR/NZD is playing inside a very complex price structure and corrective in nature. Since 2014 top at around 1.6400 we have been moving inside an WXY pattern which can be subdivided in lower degree WXY patterns. Right now we're in the last stage of completing the pattern as we're currently developing wave Y of higher degree and wave y of Y before the cycle to be completed. Before the last leg up we need a retracement towards at least 38.2 Fibonacci
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EUR/AUD Consolidation mode

Over the last year EUR/AUD has been moving from large ranging zones to small ranging zones, moving back and forth between this consolidation phases. Right now the current established range is between 1.4400 resistance level and 1.4000 big round number and psychological number. Taking in consideration that we're approaching the summer time whee liquidity usually is low and thus the activity level is very low we should expect the market to move in tight range zones and this is…
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AUD/CAD New Trend in the Making

Based on the Elliott Wave analysis AUD/CAD is headed much more lower (see Figure 1). We're in a very complex corrective pattern which suggest lower price in the weeks and months ahead.Right now we're forming a double zig-zag pattern of lesser degree which is based on the wave X connector of higher degree which should end near the 50 fib retracement at around the 0.8000 big round number.
Major Levels to watch:
[list][/list]…
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AUD/USD Range Mode

Since beginning of the year aussie has been trading in a big range zone with the big round number and psychological figure 0.7500 acting as support and 0.8000 another big round number acting as resistance. It also may be the case we're forming a head and shoulders pattern(see Figure 1) in which case we should expect another rally towards 0.7800 level to form the right shoulder.
Major Levels to watch:
[list][/list]…
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AUD/CHF Inside Down Channel

On the daily chart we can see that since the SNB black swan event the market has been moving inside a downward channel (see Figure 1)which can also be a diagonal, and based on the Elliott Wave we should see a 5 wave move inside the channel before the market to decide on it's direction. Currently we're in the stage of developing the 3rd wave but first we'll need to hit the lower limit of this channel at around the big round number and psychological number 0.7000 where a bounc…
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CHFJPY Range Box Effect

CHF/JPY has been moving slowly from one range box to another one and right now we're just breaking out of the current range box with the range between 128.00 support level and 131.20 resistance zone(see Figure 1). Since we broke and manage to get a weekly close above this resistance level we may assume that we're heading higher where another range box should be established.
Major Levels to watch:
[list][/list]…
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CHF/SGD Summer Consolidation

We can see that for the most part cross pairs like CHF/SGD have the tendencies to move in consolidation box, which i call range box effect. Right now we're moving inside one of those range zone between 1.4000 round number and psychological number which is also the bottom of the current box and 1.4600 resistance and top of the box.
Major Levels to watch:
  • 1.4000 Big round number and psychological number and also support level.
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CAD/CHF Range Box

We can see that for the most part cross pairs like CAD/CHF have the tendencies to move in consolidation box, which i call range box effect. Right now we're moving inside one of those range zone between 1.4000 round number and psychological number which is also the bottom of the current box and 1.4600 resistance and top of the box.
Major Levels to watch:
  • 0.7500 Big round number and psychological number and also support level.
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NZD/USD COT Report

NZD/USD has broken key support level at 0.7200 which held the price since beginning of the year and it seems now that the bearish trend is ready to resume. First we also need a retest of the broken support which now is expected to act as resistance. We also have confluence if we draw and connect all the high from 0.7750 high, we have a nice trend line which should act as resistance.
Major Levels to watch:
[list][/list]…
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NZD/CAD Summer Rally

NZD/CAD has the tendencies to rally during summer periods(see Figure 1) or at least to make a pause in the trend and stay inside a range. We can see that right from the first few days of Jun the market is starting to rally and more often it puts in place a major swing low. The seasonality are a strong tool to use but they never must be used alone and in combination with other technical tools, because the seasonality it only gives us the tendencies of what we should expect the marke…
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