Activity

  
Avatar

AUDCad to retrace impulsive move

We are seeing increased volatility in the FX space and even though the Ozzie Canadian pair traditionally has low volatility we can see the change here as well. The better strategy from my point of view here is to reduce leverage and increase stop levels so that we avoid wild swings in the market which are inevitably coming.
We had a large impulsive move down on April 27th and over the coming weeks I am expecting this impulsive move to be retested in the 0.973 area before continuing with the down…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
Avatar

AUDChf longer term symmetrical triangle still in play

AudChf continues to consolidate in a symmetrical triangle formed by the massive spike from the lifting of the EURCHF peg by the Swiss National Bank in early 2015. Fundamentally I am very bearish on the CHF across most pairs, however we will have to be patient if this scenario is to play out.
I anticipate some choppiness over the next couple of weeks as this pair has already seen +- 450 pips price decline from the highs in a short amount of time. As this pair is quite a slow mover that is a big a…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
Avatar

AUDJpy faithful to longer term channel

AudJpy is providing a peach of a setup! The longer term downward channel is still in play from mid 2014. We have already seen an 800 pip decline recently from price highs where 86 saw major bears arrive. Friday's close below 79.50 confirms our negative bias with major support being broken.
Stochastics continue to show negative momentum with room to run. I expect a modest pullback here and any strength should be faded and held for a run into channel support and the +- 72 area.
Daily candlestick p…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
Avatar

AUDNzd approaching important support

At first I thought the 1.064 area would be a good place for a long entry in this pair given the symmetrical triangle in play. I am however sceptical as support has already been tested 3 times in the last 6 months. Furthermore in April of 2015 we failed to touch parity which is a massive psychological level. My feeling is this pair will need to test the 1 level adequately before moving in the other direction.
In terms of the July level prediction, if my bias turns out to be correct we need to see…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
Avatar

AUDUsd coming to an end of longer term downtrend

Ozzie remains difficult to predict. We are still in a downtrend since 2013 and may see new lows below 0.68 in the days to come but I believe there is better value to be had in other dollar pairs, particularly Swissie. With rates coming down in Australia and the US currently on hold (or cautiously tightening) the carry trade is not very appealing. Couple with this an increase in volatility and a risk off atmosphere make this pair a choppy contender for the foreseeable future.
There are some range…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
Avatar

CADJpy longer term down trend still in play

CadJpy forming a bear flag in line with the overall bearish trend formed in late 2014. Expecting some chop here over the next 2 to 3 months before we see the trend resume. Markets around the world remain shaky and so my preference remains to hold on to yen long positions. IMO oil will remain weak for the foreseeable future as well which should aid the short side of this trade.
Looking for roughly the same levels we are currently at. Let's see.
Daily candlestick:
Weekly longer term view:
-AgentSmith
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
Avatar

CHFJpy to continue trending?

We have bounced off significant support at 110. It might take some time to push through this level but my bias remains to the downside with my overall bearish feeling of Swissy. Some impulsive levels from years earlier are attracting price action and the Franc's long term strength is really in question.
The down term trend lines are well defined with my hope of touching support by mid June. Looking for a price target of around 105.5 in July.
Daily candlestick projection:
Weekly candlestick:
-Age…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
Avatar

NZDChf symmetrical triangle looking for resolution

NzdChf is providing a beautiful set up at the moment. A classic symmetrical triangle is nearing resolution. The higher probability move is to the upside from here but I'm expecting some chop during May before we see any real break out. The huge impulsive move seen across Swiss Franc pairs in early 2015 suggests we need a retrace to test these levels that were brushed off within a matter of hours.
I already have an aggressive long in play but more conservative traders could wait for a daily close…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
Avatar

EURAud large symmetrical triangle in play

A lot of great opportunities playing out in the FX markets at the moment and a lot of great pattern set ups to choose from. EurAud is no different, a large symmetrical triangle remains in play since early 2015. The longer term perspective suggests some huge upside moves. The question however is when will these take place? Volatility has risen significantly, making trading these opportunities a lot more riskier.
Like most of the trades I'm currently putting on I prefer the risk off play ie. takin…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
Avatar

I have absolutely no idea where EurCad is going :D

This pair is so messy. I didn't want to create a prediction for it, but it gave me 8th place in the last comp so I have to give it some credit . I am currently short oil and so my view going into the next 2 months would be short CAD. Nevertheless expecting continued chop in volatile markets. Looking for 1.4980 in July.
Daily projection:
Weekly outlook:
-AgentSmith
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
Avatar

GBPJpy short to medium term strength

We have a potential expanding triangle playing out in this pair at the moment. The pound has been hit hard recently over brexit concerns and we will have to keep an eye out on price action around June 23 when the referendum takes place. In the meantime we should see range trading opportunities take place.
There are a number of impulsive candle formations suggesting that price action should return to these levels before we see a continuation of the down trend. I do expect lower levels from here l…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
Avatar

NZDJpy setting up for a big drop

We have a massive head and shoulder pattern playing out in kiwi yen right now, stretching all the way back to 2013. The structure looks eerily identical to the pattern formed during the 2008 global financial crisis and the same conditions exist today which prompted the sell off back the. 7 years of 'easy money' via unprecedented money printing from central banks who've learnt absolutely nothing from history.
Adding to the market risk we have the US presidential election taking place towards the …
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
Avatar

EURJpy continues choppy decline

The trend is clear although choppy in this pair. There have been plenty of opportunities to get short. However as a trader who prefers sustained moves, it's been a bit frustrating as we've seen 3 pullbacks at the 121.70 level. Typically the 4th or 5th move will result in a sustained break. When it does move I expect to see a good 600 pips lower from current levels.
Stick with the trend and remain short. EurUsd also confirms in the short run this trade but we'll have to see on that pair. Looking …
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
Avatar

EURNzd reminiscent of global financial crisis

The technical patterns are incredibly similar to the 2008 global financial crisis. A breakout of the descending channel on the weekly is impulsive and results in a correction back towards the descending trend line. Well at least that's the theory. If that scenario plays out we should see this pair return to the 1.51 area coinciding also with the larger trendline as shown in the weekly chart.
Last week's candle is a falling star and suggests that we should see weakness in the euro this coming wee…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
Avatar

EURUsd volatility continues

From a medium term technical time perspective my bias remains up. I believe we will break the important 1.1460 level in the next couple of weeks. This level will have to hold on the weekly candle to confirm the upside bias. My main driver behind this is still the large euro negative sentiment.
While I agree that the eurusd should hit parity I think we will need to see a shake out of short beforehand. Technically I'm thinking the 1.2250 provides a good area to go short again for the 1 level. Agai…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original