Welcome back to a new Trading week my Friends from the Dukascopy Community. As you probably know my Weekly Articles contain Analysis Explanation for the time-based Charts and the Constant Range Bars Charts, and the Analysis for the Current Week for the Major Pairs on the 4Hours Charts in analogy with 35 Pips Range Bars Charts. I try to update the analysis at least once more during the week through the daily view on the 1Hour charts. Sometimes I even post Analysis for other important pairs. My analysis has had 85% Success ratio so far. I make my analysis on both bulish and bearish scenarios, because in any moment the price action has 50-50% of going Bullish or Bearish.

This month I have introduced the Timing Solution and the Explanation of the Key-Levels that I use in my Analysis with the Classification depending on the Importance and Impact on the Market.

In my analysis I use the following instruments:

- Pivot Points (Daily, Weekly and Monthly - Main Pivots, 3 Supports and 3 Resistences),
- Fibonacci Retracements (during a Trend),
- Simple Moving Averages (30,50,100 and 200 SMA - also effective during an Uptrend or a Downtrend),
- Trendlines and Channel Trendlines (During trends and Congestion areas),
- Support and Resistences

I appologize because this week I will post just the analysis for the 4 Hours Charts. (I have a limited ammount if time to make the analysis)


>1) >>> Eur/Usd <<< Weekly view - 4 Hours Chart (21-25th of February):

 


It was a crazy start for the "Fiber" this week when the Greece News turn the Market upside Down. On Monday and Tuesday we had a Sideways Area with great volatility. The price has broken the Downtrend on the Daily chart but has Quickly returned under it.

On the 4Hours chart we have an Uptrend but the correlation with the daily chart is Negative. This is a Key-area because we have a Strong Support at 1.316-1.312(confluence between Weekly Pivot Tuesday and Monthly Main Pivot and the 100SMA).

Bearish Probability could break 1.316(confluence between Weekly Pivot,100 and 50 SMas) and reach first 1.312(Monthly Main Pivot as Support). If this level will be broken price could fall to 1.303(Confluence between 200SMa, Weekly S1 Pivot and Main Uptrend Line on the 4Hours Chart). This is the Key-Level that holds the Uptrend on the 4Hours Chart.the Next support for this week could be 1.285(Weekly S2 Pivot) for a bearish continuation on the Daily chart Downtrend.

Bullish Probability could find support at 1.316-1.312are (key-level confluence between weekly Main Pivot Line, Monthly Pivot, 50 and 100SMA and Triangle Vortex) and then Continue the Uptrend for a confirmation of the Break-out above the Downtrend Line on the higher Time-Frames. Price could first reach 1.334-1.338 Area(confluence between Weekly R1 Pivot , Monthly R1 Pivot and Secondary Uptrend Line).This is a Key-Level that we need to watch out for a Bearish Retracement and Uptrend Break-out Downside Continuation. Further upside we have 1.346(Weekly R2 Pivot resistence).


>2) >>> Gbp/Usd <<< Weekly view - 4 Hours Chart (21-25th of February):




Cable is Currently trending inside the triangle vortex between the Downtrend Line on the Di=aily Chart and the Main Uptrend Line on the 4 Hours Chart.

Bearish Probability - if price breaks 1.579-1.576 area (confluence between Weekly Main Pivot, Monthly R1 Pivot, 30,50 and 100SMA cross) it could first reach 1.571(key-level, confluence between Weekly S1 Pivot and Uptrend Line) and then break 1.5635(200SMa) to reach 1.556(Strong confluence between Monthly Main Pivot and Weekly S2 Pivot) before a bullish retracement.

Bullish Probability - if the 1.579-1.576 area (confluence between Weekly Main Pivot, Monthly R1 Pivot, 30,50 and 100SMA cross) will hold as support, price could break the downtrend Line dinaic resistence to first reach 1.594-1.597 Area (strong confluence between Monthly r2 Pivot and Weekly R1 Pivot). From this level we should see a retracement back to the Downtrend Line before a continuation upside to 1.60(Weekly R2 Pivot Line).



>3) >>> AUD/Usd <<< Weekly view - 4 Hours Chart (21-25th of February):




Aussie is strongly correlated with Gold (Because Australia is one of the Biggest Exporters of Gold - the Third Wrold Wide). On the 4 Hours Chart Aussie is trending in an Uptrend Channel. But on Monday price has broken out of the Channel Downside. This could be a signal for a Trend Reversal or a False Break-out.Price has currently found support at 1.067(Weekly S1 Pivot)

Bearish Probability could first retrace back to 1.074(strong key-level confluence between Uptrend Line , Weekly Main PIvot Line and 30,50 and 100SMa cross) and then break 1.067(Weekly S1 Pivot) to reach 1.056(strong Key-Level that holds the Uptrend on the 4 HOurs Charts, confluece between 200SMa, and Weekly S2 Pivot). From here price could enter a congestion area between 1.056 and 1.074.

Bullish Probability could turn back above the Main Uptrend Line and 1.074 Key-Level (confluence between Uptrend Line , Weekly Main PIvot Line and 30,50 and 100SMa cross) to reach first 1.086( Weekly R1 Pivot). From this level price could retrace back to the trendline before reach the 1.093Resistence (weekly R2 Pivot).


4) >>> Nzd/Usd <<< Weekly view - 4 Hours Chart (21-25th of February):

  


Bearish Probability: - Kiwi has been trending inside an Uptrend Channel on the 4Hours Chart. The main uptrend Line has been broken downside. If the 0.836-0.830 area(key area confluence between 100SMA, Weekly Main Pivot, weekly S1 Pivot, 30 and 500SMA cross) will be broken downside, price could reach 0.818(Key-Level confluence between 200SMa and Weekly S2 Pivot, the level that holds the uptrend on the 4Hours chart).This is a strong support area for a bullish retracement back to Weekly s2 Pivot.

Bullish Probability - above the 0.836-0.830 Area will rise back above the Main Uptrend Line  and reach first 0.848(Weekly R1 Pivot) and then 0.854 Area (Strong Key-Level, confluence between Weekly R2 Pivot and Monthly R3 Pivot).


5)>>> USD/CHF <<< Weekly view - 4 Hours Chart, (21-25th of February):

   


Like I have said in the Dukascopy Contest Checkup Interview I suggest You to keep aclose eye on the Major Swiss Franc Currency Pairs This Week, especially Eur/Chf, Usd/Chf and Chf/Jpy because it would be a perfect moment for SNB to intervene in the Market with a new Minimum level to depreciate Chf.

Bearish Probability - if the 0.912(Monthly S1Pivot) will be broken price could first reach 0.906(confluence between the trendline and  Weekly s1 Pivot) retrace back to the Monthly S1 Pivot and then continue down for a fals break-out to 0.898(Weekly S2 Pivot).

Bullish Probability - could find support at 0.912(Monthly s1 Pivot) and then break 0.918(strong key-level, possible confluence between Weekly Main Pivot 100SMa and 30 and 50SMA cross). Next Resistence could be the level 0.926(strong Key-Level confluence between 200SMa, Weekly R1 Pivot and Main Downtrend Line). this is the level that holds the Downtrend on the 4 Hours Chart. Price could retrace back and then break this level upside.


6) >>> Usd/Jpy <<< Weekly view - 4 Hours Chart, (21-25th of February):

  


Bullish Probability - the Yen is currently under a Negative Outlook from both rating Agencies, Standard and Poors and Moody's. This is a strong Bullish Fundamental Signal. If price will find support at 79.00(Weekly Main Pivot, confluence with 30 and 50 SMA) it could move upside and break 80.05(Monthly R3 Pivot) to reach 80.65(confluence between Weekly R1 Pivot and secondary Trednline) and further 81.53(Weekly R2 Pivot).

Bearish Probability - the price will break 79.00 level(Weekly Main Pivot, confluence with 30 and 50 SMA) it will fall further to 78.68(confluence between Monthly R2 Pivot and Uptrend Line) and further down to 78.13-77.76 Area (strong support key area confluence between Monthly R1 Pivot, Weekly S1 Pivot, 100SMA and Downtrend Line on the Daily Chart).Price could even reach 77.30(Weekly S2 Pivot).



7) >>> Usd/Cad <<< Weekly view - 4 Hours Chart (21-25th of February):

   


Disclaimer: Please Take responsability for Your own trading decisions.

Thank You for reading My Analysis, I only wish more traders in the dukascopy COmmunity would share their Trading Thoughts and Analysis.

To YOur Success,
Doctortyby - Tiberiu