This week I have decided to start a series of week-end "silent" technical analysis. Most traders start trading on Monday Opening, based entirely on "Gap filling" or "naked trading" Price Action, acting by emotional trading decisions. I said Monday opening because in my country, Market opens exactly at 00.00 o'clock on Monday.
I personally, strongly believe that a Minimum "cold" Technical Analysis, for a better understanding of price action is needed. Surely this analysis has to be correlated with fundamental analysis and news announcements, to find the higher probability of successful trading in the right direction.
Always we are required to Follow the Market, and wait for clear technical signals for a higher probability of bearish or bullish moves of the price. Of course we have to pay attention to news announcements that occure during the week-end.
Let's Proceed with our analisys.
I will make the tecnical analysis for the currencie airs that I mostly trade:
- Eur/Usd, - Gbp/Usd, - Eur/Gbp, - Eur/Chf, - Eur/Jpy, - Usd/Jpy, - Usd/chf, - Usd/Nok, - Usd/Sgd, - Aud/Jpy, - Usd/Sek, - Chf/Jpy, - Usd/Cad, - Nzd/Usd, - Aud/Usd.
I will also make a brief analysis of USD and Euro Indexes, but I will not be able to post charts for these two, because Dukascopy doesn't yet provide these charts in their contest platform.
(That brings me to an Important suggestion for Dukascopy Team - Please add those indexes USD and Euro, to the J-forex contest platform, not as much for trading but for technical analysis correlated with the pairs)
My Week-end Technical Analysis is based mainly on:
- Dialy Pivot Points, Supports and Resistences,
- Weekly Pivot Points, Supports and Resistences,
- Monthly Pivot Points, Supports and Resistences,
- Fibonacci Retracements,
- Crosses between Simple Moving Averages on 4H, 1H, and daily charts( 30,50,100 and 200 SMA) - for trading signals,
- candlestick formations - trading signals,
- crosses between 5 and 13 Exponential Moving Averages on 1H, 4H and daily charts - trading signals.
- I also use indicators like RSI and Volume, just for confirmation of the trading signals.
price is standing at 50% Fibonacci retracement from the bearish move on Thursday, and at
38,2% retracement from the bullish move on Friday.
Daily pivot line acting as
support at 1,3364.
Upside ABCD bullsih move could take price to Monthly Pivot point at 1,3508.
Downside ABCD bearish move could drive price to 1,3213 support.
Conflictual signals from my perspective. I wait for a higher probability of a short
signal on monday opening.
index is showing price just under daily
and weekly pivot lines standing at 78.66, south Monthly pivot line is standing
at 78,19 and north first weekly resistence pivot is standing at 79,35. Price
touches 50% fibo retracement from the bullish move on Thursday. Also we have a
confluence of two trendline on 1H chart that seem to hold as support. I expect
Usd index to go long on Monday... but always we should follow the market, and its’
index is showing price at 105.06 daily pivot line, with weekly pivot line at
105.56, and weekly resistence pivot 1 at 104,84. The confluence of two
tendlines on 4H chart shows a higher probability of shorting euro next week. Also
euro is standing at 50% Fibo from last move (see correlation with USD).
2) GBP/USD - Price
of this pair is currently standing
between 38,3 and 50% fibonacci retracement from the bearish move on
Thursday, and 50% fibonacci retracement from the bullish move on Friday.
Daily Main Pivot line is standing at 1,567. The higher probability is short. I
expect the Monday opening to sell Gbp/Usd. (correlated with USD index)
Anyway if the trendlines confluence will hold as support, we could see a
bullish move... just follow the market signals.
Fundamentals: - On Tuesday - C.P.I. and Core-C.P.I. - for GBP (***)
3) EUR/GBP- Eur/gbp , uncertain
pair this moments. Price is standing at weekly support 1 pivot line, inside a
congestion area. If we watch daily chart higher probability is bearish, but we
have to wait for shorting signals next week.
4) EUR/CHF - Eur/chf
has price standing at daily pivot main line, at 38,2 % fibonacci retracement
from the bearish move in the last three days. If SNB will let the price run
free, we could see an ABCD move to weekly support pivot line 1 at 1.2249, close
to 161,8 fibo. But on higher time frames we can notice a possible ABCD bullish move to
weekly resistence pivot line 1 at 1.2491 or even weekly resistence 2 pivot line
at 1,2589. Conflictual signals lead to fundamentals.
Fundamentals: - On Thursday - SNB Interest Rate Decision (CHF) (***)
5) EUR/JPY - Price of eur/Jpy is standing right on daily pivot line at
103.62. We have a 61,8% fibonacci retracement from the bullish move on Friday, and
also a down trenline witch holds as resistence on 4H frame. Trade Probability is short but we have to
wait for Monday open to have a clear signal.
6) USD/JPY - Usd/Jpy ,
uncertain pair to trade this week , I belive because of the Jpy. Price is currently standing at daily pivot
line and confluence with weekly support pivot line 1.As support the trendline
on 4H chart and 200 SMA on the same chart.
Main Monthly Pivot Line at 77,72 and
Weekly Pivot Line at 77,79 are acting as resistence for a bullish move next
week. I’m neutral in usd/jpy for the momment, but I’m waiting for long signals to enter the market.
7) USD/CHF - This pair
has price above daily pivot line at 0,924. Price broke down from 4h chart
triangle vortex, and now has retraced to trendline. If price will go down to
weekly pivot line standing at 0,919, and break through it, this would be a
short signal. I am neutral for the momment on Usd/chf.
8) USD/NOK - Usd/nok,
great pair to trade correlated to Eur/usd (my oppinion). Price is standing at
Monthly Pivot line at 5,748.
On 4h chart we can see a congestion area forming
between 5,72 and 5,81. Also we have daily Pivot line at 5,764 and Weekly Pivot
line at 5,799 acting as resistences.
Probability of trade long. I will wait for
Monday opening to see a clear bullish signal.
At 1,2892 we have a confluence between weekly pivot line and uptrendline on 4h
Higher pprobability of trade –
long. But we have to wait for a clear bullish signal.
10) USD/SEK - Usd/Sek , I love this pair. I correlate it to Eur/Usd. This week it has
been moving sideways inside a congestion area, between 6.69 and 6.82.
Probability of trading long, but wait for clear bullish signals, and
watch for daily and monthly pivot at 7,7615and weekly pivot line at
6,8077 acting as resistence.
11) AUD/JPY - Aud/jpy is neutral for the momment if you watch
daily, weekly and monthly pivot lines. I wouldn’t trade it next week, unless I
will see a clear break-out Long.
12) CHF/JPY- Chf/Jpy
price is standing at daily pivot line, on 1H chart we have a confluence
South, weekly support 1 is standing at 83.63 , and
north first resistence at 84.13 and then weekly pivot line at 84,61.
of trading long, but I wait for bullish signal on Monday opening.
13) USD/CAD - Price of Usd/Cad at 38.2 % Fibonacci Retracement
from last bullish move, with daily pivot line acting as support at 1.0171, and
monthly and weekly pivot lines acting as resistences at 1,0227.
probability of trading long an ABCD move to weekly resistence 1 pivot at
1.0375. I'm waiting for bullish signals on Monday opening for entering long on this
14) NZD-USD - Nzd/Usd is currently standing at 50% Fibonacci
retracement from Bearish move on Thursday.
Daily pivot Line at 0.7771 and Monthly
Pivot line at 0.7754 are acting as resistence for the momment.
An ABCD bearish
move would take price straight through weekly pivot line and last support to
weekly pivot resistence 1 standing at 0.7577.
I will wait for some bearish
signals on Monday to short this pair.
15) AUD/USD - Price is standing at 50% Fibonacci retracement from the Bearish Move on Thursday (simillar to NZD/USD).
Daily Pivot Line is acting as resistence at 1,0233.
An ABCD bearish move would take price down t weekly support pivot line 1 at 0,9915, striaght through Monthly Pivot Line at 1,0160 and Weekly Pivot Line standing at 1,0122, and last support holding 1,0048 level.
I'm waiting for bearish signals to enter short on Aud/Usd next week.
You for your patience to bear with me during the reading of this
article. If I will have feed-back from Dukascopy traders community, I
will post this analysis weekly. If you see any mistakes do not hesitate to comment. Criticize is also welcomed.
Disclaimer: Please Take
Responsability for your Trading decisions.