What the market has priced in already...

As we see, we are around the level of post referendum, when Brexit, especially hard Brexit was not certain at all. This is quite an optimistic and strong reaction from the market. The market has priced in almost a reversal in British approach.
No hard Brexit is just a hope

What we have to remember as traders is that right now it is just hopes priced in, without generally any hard facts to support them yet.
As it is used to be said 'sell the gossip, buy the fact'. The facts are still to be seen and assesed while gossip sold pretty well, giving disconnected with reality 180 degree sentiment change in the market.
Why disconnected? Well, maybe polls are not trusted recently, but this time they show Conservative Party being 20% ahead. That is quite a decisive prediction. Lead by Theresa May and her party, British would have hard Brexit almost assured, that is unless the party itself had huge internal differences in Brexit approach.
It seems that market just might have gotten a bit too excited again, this time to the upside.
The most positive scenario
Even if hard Brexit was somehow forgotten by the government, there still would be Brexit on the…
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mariailkiv avatar
mariailkiv 24 Apr.

хорошая статья!!

LizaQ avatar
LizaQ 24 Apr.


hrustiashka avatar

Good article. Thanks

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RahmanSL avatar

Useful article

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The main goal of our investments will always to be at a higher profitability than the best possible risk-free option of investing. As we risk with our investments and have to involve our knowledge and time it is logical that we expect a better return than we get just for giving money to a financial institution. To assess our investment we could use various benchmarks, for example:
  1. Best free of risk possibility - this is the final benchmark for any investment, we cannot go lower than that.
  2. The average return on associated index (if we invest in shares).
  3. The average return on stocks from the same market sector (for shares).
  4. Average interest on government bonds across the world (for bonds, but could also be considered as a more ambitious alternative for free of risk investment bench). For forex, we can benchmark against best interest on governmental bonds available to reflect risk.
  5. Average profit on assets with similar risk.
  6. Fund/hedge fund based on the same assets. Best fund's result for the similar assets.
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Yonggi7 avatar
Yonggi7 21 Apr.

It's a great work... And it's a clever idea! Great my friend!

SmErtNIK avatar
SmErtNIK 21 Apr.


Yuliya_N avatar
Yuliya_N 21 Apr.

interesting to knoow about ways to measure risk

ForexAlyoum avatar

Good luck

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 24 Apr.

Excellent work!

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