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The USD/JPY is a difficult pair to forecast under the current political and macroeconomic climate. The Japanese Yen is seen as a safe haven, but the US dollar remains under the influence of a hawkish FED. The North Korean provocations and the FED meeting could both swing the USD/JPY pair in either direction.
This situation is clearer if we look at the monthly and weekly charts of even just a week ago. In the monthly chart (chart 1) snapshot, taken on Friday September 9 2017, we see a strong downward move. This move was key for two reasons: one, it was below the 50% Fibonacci level, and two, it established a new low after several previous attempts at that price area.
The 50% Fibonacci level stood at 109.9 and although two previous attempts of a break had even reached the next Fibonacci level in previous months, neither of those moves or the other attempts had managed to close below 109.90, apart from a marginal close below that level in August.
Chart 1

The weekly chart (chart 2) of that week was also making a strong case for a continuation of the bearish move as it showed the pair reaching new lows well below a 50% Fibonacci level of 111.35.
Chart 2

If we look at the sna…
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RahmanSL avatar
RahmanSL 26 Sep.

Yes, these days the USD/JPY is a difficult pair to trade....now it's compounded with news of Abe intention to hold a snap election.
Where will the USD/JPY go?...it's anybody's guess!

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Starting the technical analysis about a week ago, we looked at the 4-hour chart and assumed a general upward movement to 13.75 by the end of the month, with lots of up and downs during that price action.
If we look at the pair the week ending Friday 25 August 2017, we see that the pair not only did not try to break through previous highs, but it broke through previous support at around 13.12, the 161.8 Fibonacci level.
4-hour Chart

Nevertheless, taking into account the Jackson Hall meeting and both the Fed’s Yellen and ECB’s Draghi speech in sight that day and the upcoming ECB meeting and Federal Reserve’s meeting on September 19-20, we can discount this week’s action and look further ahead at the weekly chart.
Weekly Chart

With the price hovering at around 13.000 on the last Friday of August, the next resistance at around the 12.30 price level stands not too far away, but still at a safe distance. The 13.00 level is important in the sense that if broken, then the weekly upward channel pattern will be broken.
Normally, if it weren’t for the upcoming crucial macro events we’d be more inclined to scrap the bullish scenario for USD/ZAR. Assuming the Fed will at the very least an…
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JuliannaS avatar

good work

TheAnalyst avatar

Thank you JuliannaS

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