At the beginning of the year, everyone (myself included) expected to see rates push higher and higher. The US 10 year yield started at around 3%, and currently sits at 2.5%... 90% of the market participants were expecting to see 3.5%, not 2.5! And here lies the problem, consensus trades have been failing miserably this year, and frankly don't look goof for the rest of the year.
The consensus trades that nearly everyone believed in going in to 2014 were as follows, as they thought at the time:
1.) Sell bonds - With the Fed tapering, and the US growing well, interest are surely going to rise in the not too distant future. As such, we will have higher yields on Government bonds across the curve.
2.) Buy Equities - The so called "great rotation", sell bonds and buy equity. The US is growing, the world is recovering, buy stocks. Corporate default rates are historically low, and their profit margins have never been higher!
3.) Sell the EUR, buy the USD - With the ECB acting very dovishly, the EUR will fall... ignore the growing current account, or financial stability, the ECB will force the EUR lower. For the USD, the US could grow >3% this year, and interest rates could …