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1/41
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Introduction:
Sparked by a most interesting conversation in oneof webinars recently, I decided to dedicate some time in explaining why, when
trading Emerging market (EM) FX, you should take more care and most certainly take somewhat of a different approach. Via dukascopy there is plenty of opportunity to gain exposure to the EM world, they offer CCY's such as MXN,
PLN, RUB, TRY and ZAR. While each have their own varying features, a different approach needs to be considered.
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Headline Risk:

This can broadly be considered as unexpectedrisks, and yes these occur in G7 majors, but are much more prevalent in
the EM world due the rapid expansion of their society - these can range from political risks to rapid changes in the structure of the economy. But furthermore we know that due the lower liquidity seen in these pairs that small
shocks can result in large price changes and so if one is to trade EM's they need to be familiar with the calendar of macro indicators which is somewhat harder to come by than those for G7 nations.
Undoubtedly, fundamentals and money flows aremore impo…
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alifari avatar
alifari 22 Oct.

This is undoubtedly the best article this month.......... and something new......

Airmike avatar
Airmike 23 Oct.

you are right. did you mention this to DFC team. for example in one of the webinars you did. because i think this is damaging thing. I was thinking about one article which will be something like statistical reaserch of spaming at the contest. :) . but after my experience with my first two articles , those things are not "valuable" enough .. Now I concentrate only to articles about trading, but it seems that It is to late post article during the contest. It same as on fundamental contest. Doesnt matter if you are correct at predictions. you have to be first who put analysis, even if analysis a

Airmike avatar
Airmike 23 Oct.

btw: If you want , check my article and let me know your opinion.

northernwave avatar

thanks for sharing your hard earned knowledge.

Darius avatar
Darius 30 Oct.

I like it. Good luck

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20/43
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Introduction:The Australian Dollar is perhaps one the most popular pairs for traders, its nature is fairly simple and provides good opportunities for scalpers and swing traders alike. Crucially in this world with no yield, AUD can pocket you ~3% a year, great for some investors.Because of this yield, the AUD is very prone to changes in risk sentiment and therefore on an intra-day basis is highly correlated to US and European Stock indices. However, the most alarming thing about this pair is the lack of activity in recent weeks, especially since the start of October where the average Rate of Change has been under 1% per day. This compared with the same time last year where there were times of +2% per day.Long Term:As shown here, AUDUSD is at a crucial checkpoint, as in the next few days to weeks the Aussie will breakout and set the trend for the next 6 months or so. While technically the trendlines are neutral there is a bearish divergence suggesting there is a greater chance of a downside move. However this is entirely subjective to the moves that will be see is US equities. More so a member of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has said this;RBA John Edwards - " The currency is m…
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AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 17 Dec.

Price action is still in consolidation, the levels mentioned above are getting even more crucial, furthermore on a side note AUD CoT positioning is extremely long which means a sharp fall in risk can cause some heavy long covering and stop tripping.

AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 26 Dec.

AUD broke down lower - but has stalled at 50% fib level and has held 200MA this is likely to be the case until Next year. So 1.043 seems like a decent target as that's a monthly pivot and as such could be a good way to end December.

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26/48
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Introduction:This article is all about bonds and in general the fixed income markets. To start with, a bond is effectively an IOU from one person to another. There is a legal obligation from the issuer to repay the investor. If this is not fulfilled the issuer default on his debts.Components:There are many components in bonds that you should be familiar with, even when it comes to trading Forex. Firstly;Principal : Also commonly known as the Par value is the value that the issuer will have to pay back to the lender upon maturity. This ranges from $1,000 to $100,000 depending on the type of bond. This is also commonly the same value that the investor lends to the country or corporation.Price : This aspect changes just as the price of a stock would, upon issuance price is normally  100. Throughout the life of the bond this price may vary due to demand for the bond. Any price above 100 is seen to be trading at a premium and anything below is at a discount. Normally it is quoted as the "clean" price, or the price without any interest that has accrued. If there is a $10,000 bond and the price falls from 100 to 90, it costs you $9,000 to buy an IOU for $10,000. This means that if you hol…
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AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 19 June

Spanish 10 year's caught a decent bid today forcing yields down 17 Bps at one point, bids seen from arbitrageurs trading compression movements with CDS'. - http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GSPG10YR:IND

Risk on across market but all rest on QE hopes. All things considering, do you personally value the SP500 at 1350 without QE, I think the answer is no, seems to be pricing in QE to me.

One key factor though is the diminishing returns of each successive intervention and that suggests QE3 will last for less than 1 month and give no more than 100 points. we will see.

scramble avatar
scramble 20 June

Another great article! Very well explained one of the most important (and very actual) aspects involved in trading financial markets! Well done!

AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 26 June

RBS say long core, short periphery into the weekend. as it stands 10yrs of European bonds are : 9.65% - Portugal // 6.72% -Spain // 6.06% - Italy // 1.52% - Germany // Netherlands - 2.06% // Finland - 1.9%.

Some pretty sizeable moves in these yields in the past few days, will be interesting to see where it goes from here.

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