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At a time when the world is facing a major financial disruption investors look for a safe haven for their money, and despite the economic backdrop the yen is seen as one of the safe havens, a place with little risk.
Paradoxically, the world's largest debtor nation, with negative interest rates and an ageing citizenry don't seem to gather the regular conditions for the country’s currency to spike, but that’s exactly what has been happening to the yen during this year.
Polls over the past year have shown that more than three quarters of the Japanese population have not benefited from Abenomics.
The economy is at a standstill, wages and household income are stagnant and deflationary pressures remains strong.
When it was first advertised, Abenomics filled the Japanese stakeholders with encouraging expectations over an economic rebound.
With too little changes in the economic situation, the current policy is gathering the acronym of the “welfare for the wealthy” - it only boosts Nikkei and Topix.
William Pesek [1] author of Japanization: What the World Can Learn from Japan’s Lost Decades (2015) stated by Jeff Kingston:
Abe’s catchy marketing campaign wowed a media establishment accustom
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Tasha_Mk avatar
Tasha_Mk 26 Oct.


k_morocco avatar
k_morocco 26 Oct.

very intersting

Boznow avatar
Boznow 29 Oct.

Bardzo interesujące

Alexander22 avatar

good job

Mani avatar
Mani 17 Nov.

good job

orto leave comments
Dear friends! In this article I want to discuss such important question as trading JPY by beginners of Forex.
From own experience: we read the recommendations in blogs, forums, books or heard from someone else, know that JPY is better not to touch when you're just starting to learn Forex market. Especially they recommend avoiding trading USDJPY sure if you don’t want to catch stop loss orders as well as Japanese fish.
Looking back, I see, understand, and realize that it is not true. This is just another illusion in the market - an illusion in our minds. The yen is much faster than the other pair, it can teach a beginner one of the most important things of the market - understanding the product with which you are dealing. In this case, the currency.

Just move on to the case and will be brief. Yes, the yen is very volatile and a little predictable, but these deficiencies overlap easily, if at all, do not turn to the pros, as should look at everything from a different angle to look at what can be used and what kind of opportunities. Here are main characteristics of the JPY:
1.) The yen is quite strong currency. Its movements are often stronger than that of other currencies.
2.) …
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anna_n 19 Aug.


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HOME avatar
HOME 28 Aug.

交叉货币  我一般数据行情行情 会挂单多空进行操作。赌

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HOME 28 Aug.


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As I have announced in my previous article, I’m still expecting very interesting and surprising developments in the coming months and actually it has been happening in May, but certainly this is not the end of excitement in the forex. In the series of articles titled “Forex Weekly Outlook” will continue to provide my opinion to readers together with detailed information analyzes and forecasts for the currency pairs that they are asking for. Of course, I want to encourage readers to any suggestions, questions or requests to write in the commentary box. Based on the suggestions from Dukascopy community members, this week I will analyze the USDJPY and I expect the biggest volatility in this pair. I want to introduce a novelty – a new subtitle, which will go from now on every week and will represent a review of the last week in which I will try to remind you about the most important events of the last week.
Review of the last week
After several days of weakening dollar, Tuesday was a U-turn day. In almost all USD currency pairs daily candle was inverse hammer or a hammer. Investor’s concerns are that the currency with negative interest rates strengthened against the dollar so that is…
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bokafx avatar
bokafx 29 May

Good technical analysis for USD/JPY, useful article.

Helena_Prekrasnaj avatar

I like your idea for writing several articles!

Govagent avatar
Govagent 1 June

Yup, I'm waiting for the bounce all right ^_^

amerfx86 avatar
amerfx86 6 June

Thanks all  for support!!!!!

amerfx86 avatar
amerfx86 6 June

As we seen in friday and yesterday 106.50 support is in play again and as i mentioned in the article buyers are ready to put the trade on the price range from previous low of 105.4-106.50. Every move in this range we seen after strong bounce.

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The yen is being traded with an unfavourable volatility. This is due to the negativity of the interest rate. Nikkei 225 index has fallen from 19,033 points at the beginning of the year till 15,960 points at the end of February. The recent sell off in equities is lightening that recent BOJ measures are short-lived, pointing out into further intervention.
Japan’s economy shrank 0.4% quarter on quarter in the last three months of 2015, dragged down by a fall in consumers spending and housing investment, failing 0.3% GDP (QoQ) shrinkage forecasted by analysts.
Reporting Mario Blascak and Matus Mader [1],
With the Japanese yen breaking to multi-year highs, the likelihood of further monetary stimulus from the Bank of
Japan (BoJ) rises.

Kuroda’s efforts enhanced in 2013 with a massive Q.Q.E. program to combat the 15-year long era of deflation are not providing the results yet predicted.
The recent downtrend in yen vs other major currencies is unwelcome, as it tightens the competiveness of Japan’s exports. It also pressures the unwanted Japanese imports purchase power, which unweighs in BOJ’s 2% targeted inflation.
Markets are questioning the effectiveness of negative interest rates to lift [/1]…
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Sveetlana 19 Mar.

Very good article. Good luck!

EliasOmar avatar
EliasOmar 22 Mar.

great article .. keep going

angelina_may avatar

i like it)

rajib217 avatar
rajib217 25 Mar.

Nice Article

Olkiss70 avatar
Olkiss70 31 Mar.

excellent article!

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1- Introduction.

En date du 29 Janvier 2016, la Banque du Japon a annoncé à la surprise générale qu'elle imposera un taux d'intérêt négatif de 0,1% sur les réserves des institutions financières déposées auprès d'elle. Cette décision a été adoptée à une courte majorité, cinq voix contre quatre. Cette mesure a pris effet le 16 février 2016. Les ambitions déclarées de la Banque du Japon est de tenter de relancer une économie atone mais nombre d'économistes doutent de l'impact d'une telle mesure sur l'économie réelle. Bien évidement, le marché des devises à réagir à la nouvelle, par une appréciation du yen !
A titre d'exemple, le taux de change USD/JPY est passé sous le support long terme situé vers 116. La bourse de Tokyo a réagi favorablement à la nouvelle avec une hausse de 2,8% pour se retourner les jours suivants et poursuivre son trend baissier entamé depuis août 2015.

Haruhiko Kuroda annonce sa nouvelle décision sur les taux directeurs de la Banque de Japon.
2- Les taux d'intérêts négatifs.

Le taux de rémunération des dépôts appelé également taux de la facilité des dépôts est le taux fixé par une Banque Centrale à tout dépôt que lui confie les institutions financières. C'est…
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zarina avatar
zarina 27 Feb.

Thank you for your article !

Nihad avatar
Nihad 27 Feb.

Good luck buddy

SolomiaM avatar
SolomiaM 11 Mar.

very interesting)

SofiaM avatar
SofiaM 11 Mar.

well done!)

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ECB decided to leave rates unchanged in its last meeting in January. Reporting Fergal O'Brien [1],
ECB President Mario Draghi has said the Governing Council will review its stimulus in March amid signs that falling
oil prices will push the euro region’s inflation rate back to zero.

Euro unemployment rate decreased from 10.5% to 10.4% last December, bringing tiny signs of relief for ECB Governing Council. Unemployment rate dropped in Germany to 6.2%, the lowest level since 2013. In the opposite side Finland sees its unemployment rate jumping to 9.5%.
Reporting Chris Williamson [2], Chief Economist at Markit, January’s
Rates of growth continued to diverge markedly, (...) Italy’s growth rate looks to have slipped to just 0.3% and France,
once again the laggard, has returned to stagnation,

while Spain lead the gains with PMI signalling 0.75% growth rate.
Although some Euro zone economies are delivering a sustainable growth, other ones are still providing signs of concerns with steady growth, narrowing stagnation. Facing a mixed economic environment, markets will sharply watch ECB next meeting, holding for super (Mario) stimulus, levelling expectations into a supplementary purchase package.[/2][/1]…
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Nihad avatar
Nihad 24 Feb.

Super MARIO and what the YELLIN' is all about. Thx for this interesting outlook

fx_lmcap avatar
fx_lmcap 24 Feb.


Tasha_Mk avatar
Tasha_Mk 25 Feb.

good luck!!!

Melody avatar
Melody 25 Feb.

Nice report!

Govagent avatar
Govagent 25 Feb.

This is useful, thanks. saves me the effort of searching some information, great job ^_^

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I didn’t expect to be writing this article so soon. The idea first came up after the Bank of Japan unexpectedly eased monetary policy on October 31st The BOJ increased its bond buying program from 70 to 80 trillion and tripled its ETF purchases from 1 to 3 trillion yen. The surprise move lead to a 292 pips rally in the USD/JPY and on October 31st the currency closed off the week at 112.32. In the next month the Yen continued to be sold aggressively and last Thursday the Dollar/Yen spiked at a high of 118.97. But let’s start from the beginning.
The Rise of Abenomics
The latest round of easing is a continuation of a BOJ policy started back in 2012. After coming to power in December of 2012, the current prime minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe, started to implement a set of policies termed ‘’Abenomics’’. The aggressive policy changes involve radical quantitative easing, increase of public investment and structural reforms. Abe appointed Haruhiko Kuroda as head of the Bank of Japan with a mandate to generate 2 percent inflation. The inflation goal lead to the bank embarking on a massive buying spree during which the BOJ balance sheet almost doubled.
What’s Behind the Japanese Obsessio
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Convallium avatar
Convallium 30 Nov.

wonderful job!

fxigor avatar
fxigor 17 Dec.

I agree with this article.My aproach to forex market is technical but I agree that There Will be No Japanese Bailout.

fxsurprise8 avatar

fxigor glad you agree with me :)

Durden avatar
Durden 26 Jan.

Good job

driven avatar
driven 3 May

Extremely well-written article. I think your long-term assessment is probably true, but there is always danger in making short-term predictions.

orto leave comments
New approach of BoJ towards forex market interventions is described. Unintended consequences of new policy implementation are discussed. Alternative methods of lowering inflation at disposal of BoJ are considered; possible outcomes for different scenarios are outlined and their impact on JPY exchange rate is put forward.

For years now central bankers around the globe are trying to convince public that inflation is indispensable constituent of healthy economic growth and should be greeted with optimism as harbinger of coming prosperity. There is one caveat though they say, it should be rightly dosed at 2% annual rate; any readings below the desired level is deemed as counterproductive.
Considering relatively low levels of inflation in Japan over the last decades, at least according to government statistics, the aim of reaching “the target level” seems to be hard to achieve.
Considering that over the last decade inflation in Japan, at least according to government statistics, stayed at relatively low levels, the aim of reaching “the target value” might seem to be very hard to achieve.
Indeed, it is rather difficultto overcome deflationary forces in highly indebted econom…
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HelgaPehkel avatar

i just have closed buy order on USD/JPY on 104.13

speculo_ergo_sum avatar

thank you for reading my article:) I do appreciate any feedback, opinions, words of relentless criticism:)))))))))) well, I do think that JPY might go up, provided BoJ does right things. Speaking of short term trends, I hope that this week USDJPY will go down to at least 102.

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I think every single trader, newbie or not, tried to take advantage of Japan’s “economic recovery efforts” by shorting the yen in the last 4 months. There were so many opportunities to make good money every time Japan PM, Shinzo Abe, had something to say about his strategy to boost GDP growth.We reached now a point where the world is asking if this chosen strategy, to weaken the yen, is not dangerous for the important economies as USA, China, Europe, and others. We just had a strange statement of G7 saying “nothing” but shortly after an unidentified official said: “The G7 statement was misinterpreted! The G7 is concerned about unilateral guidance on the yen. Japan will be in the spotlight at the G20 in Moscow this weekend.” That’s even stranger if you look at the US Treasury’s Undersecretary for International Affairs, Lael Brainard, that gave the Japanese administration a nod of approval in the way they have been handling their currency situation. Are u confused ? Because this is not everything: I red today an article where I found this: “In private, the US has been pressuring Japan's new government to refrain from mentioning the yen as it attempts to revive growth and end deflatio…
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Behrooz_MB avatar
Behrooz_MB 18 Feb.

excellent :)

SpecialFX avatar
SpecialFX 21 Feb.

Well, Japan may be doing easing measures to weaken their currency, but the US has been doing that for longer with their Quantitative Easing programs, and China won't let the Yuan appreciate as it should, so basically it would be highly hypocritical of them to say anything against Japan :)

orto leave comments
The Top 3 Currency Trends in 2013 - Part 1 This is a 3 part series of the Top 3 Currency Trends expected to persist in 2013. Each part will be published on a weekly basis. 1. Yen weakness The new Japanese government led by Shinzo Abe has been pressuring the Bank of Japan into implementing further easing of monetary policy. The Yen has weakened considerably on Abe's pledges for more monetary and fiscal stimulus. Since the middle of November the Yen has fallen over 9% against the dollar. See the chart below. The USD/JPY traded at 81.40 on November 20. The blue line is the 20 day Simple Moving Average, the red line is the 50 day SMA. The pair closed at 90.07 on Friday. The Japanese currency performed even worse against the Euro. The Yen lost close to 15% against the Euro since November 20, or expressed in pips – 1555 pips. Look at the chart below. The Japanese Government and the Bank of Japan will issue a joint statement next week On January 15 the Japanese prime minister said that the BOJ should implement an inflation target of 2% per year. Just yesterday on Sunday, January 20, the Japanese Economics Minister Akira Amari said that the government and the BOJ were g…
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SpecialFX avatar
SpecialFX 24 Jan.

Yen weakness will be the major trend of this decade, it's not just the inflation target or easing measures, Japan has signficant structural problems and there's simply no easy way out for them :)

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Major currency pairs rallied sharply last week to reflect improved risk-appetite within the context of renewed commitment from the US Federal Reserve and expectations of more aggressive monetary policy stance from the Bank of Japan. These gains contrasted the sharp declines of the previous week that took place amidst growing pessimism surrounding the Euro zone economy and the looming US `Fiscal Cliff` heading into 2013. The EURO USD gained just under 300 pips since the lows of that decline, together with the EURO JPY (400 pips), GBP JPY (240 pips), NZD USD (120 pips) and the EURO CAD (280 pips). Similarly, the USD CHF and the GBP CHF - which move inversely with those pairs- declined by 150 pips and 185 pips, respectively. On Wednesday, the FOMC announced that it had decided to maintain the Federal Funds Rate at the 0.25% level while also announcing that they would be replacing the expiring `Operation Twist` programme with new Treasury purchases to keep long-term interest rates low. However, the more surprising aspect of the release was the linking of the monetary policy programme to a specific target for the unemployment rate. As long as inflation and inflation expectations rem…
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Shorting the yen and Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs), over the past 2 decades, has been such a disastrous trade for so many long term investors/traders that it is called by industry veterans as the "widow-maker" trade, and it is still making victims today. This article will explain why so many smart people were "killed" by this trade, why it didn't work then, and why it may finally make sense to short the yen in the not so distant future.______________________________________________________ ► Historical background: the good times and then the bubble...In the mid-1950's, agriculture still accounted for about 40% of the workforce, and the economy was characterized by low wages and uncompetitive industries, but the next three decades would bring such an unprecedented economic growth that by 1980 nominal GDP was estimated at US$1.065 trillion, compared to only US$44 billion a mere 20 years before. After WWII Japanese citizens were encouraged to save more of their income. With so much money in the banks, the country running bigger and bigger trade surpluses, and falling interest rates, credit was easily available. This led to a bubble of biblical proportions in the real estate and sto…
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SpecialFX avatar
SpecialFX 19 Sep.

The Bank of Japan yesterday joined other central banks around the world and decided to ease monetary policy more than expected. The BoJ increased asset purchases by 10 trillion yen, so that's why's the yen is getting weaker today.

alifari avatar
alifari 24 Sep.

Everyday we learn something new, nicely written article +1

OneGoodTrade avatar

Very well presented topic with interesting ideas.

doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 27 Sep.

the Yen is preparing us a surprise :)

kostas19 avatar
kostas19 29 Sep.

The Asian economys are slowing down right now and the N1 printer in the world is the USA so i think specificly the yen vs the dollar should go down alot more

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Hi again Dukascopy Community. This is my second article in this contest, this time about the Technical Analysis behind Yen’s Strength (based on USDJPY currency pair). With permission of contest organizers, I decided to record a video. The main reason for me doing this was, that not many of you like reading a lot. Besides, we all know that when you watch something and not only read about the subject, it becomes easier to digest, especially when the work is difficult. I hope you enjoy this form of video article, as well as the explanation provided with it. Should you still prefer the text, you can find the full transcript below the video. Let’s start. The chart you can see now (below) is weekly chart of USDJPY. This is the basic layout which later on will be complemented with more sophisticated support/resistance lines and potential entry levels. USDJPY WEEKLY (1) Main thing I want to point out is that during strong downtrend in which the pair was for last 5 years, corrective moves/waves tend to be inclined at an angle of exact number– in this case 10.3 degrees. Anothe…
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marius24 avatar
marius24 10 Apr.

i like this article my bro..hope you will be the winner because you deserve

CASPI avatar
CASPI 13 Apr.

Very good. This idea is a good idea to implement. Labor health. Good luck.

Comenium88 avatar
Comenium88 16 Apr.

If this sell-off accelerates, we may see even 79.48 support level test. That is black support line through last intervention candle close level.

nfx avatar
nfx 18 Apr.

Fantastic article and video. Market structure analysis / price action is king in my eyes. Very good analysis and great article. You deserve to win. Well done.

kkforex avatar
kkforex 19 Apr.

Intersting video 1+

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