記事ライブラリー

4/66
ランキング
Introduction
I find it useful to look at the big picture from time to time. In technical analysis terms, that usually means inspection of weekly and/or monthly charts. However, I rarely get to see analysis of "ultra-high" timeframe charts, so I decided to make a couple of attempts of my own. Previously, I analysed long term charts of the Euro, the Yen, the Cable, the Swissie, the Loonie, the Aussie and the Kiwi.
Today I'll have a look at yearly and quarterly Yuan* charts that are covering the period from 1971 to 2015. While the yearly may be of some use for a quick overview of price action, the quarterly chart offers more detail and makes trends, ranges and patterns more clearly visible. I will be focusing on the latter for my analysis.
*I use the term Yuan (capital letter) to denote USD/CNY pair. Though, the below charts are actually composed using both USD/CNY daily data (1971 - 2012) and USD/CNH tick data (2012 - 2015). Please see the "Onshore and Offshore Renminbi" paragraphs below for an explanation regarding both pairs.
Yearly Chart
Quarterly Chart
Renminbi and yuan
Both terms are often used interchangeably to describe Chinese money but there is a distinc…
記事を読む
翻訳する: 英語 オリジナルを表示
BeautybyLesya avatar
BeautybyLesya 2015年12月22日

Great job!

VictoriaVika avatar
VictoriaVika 2015年12月22日

Good luck :)

WallStreet6 avatar
WallStreet6 2015年12月28日

Interesting, but I don't trade it

lelipuzik avatar
lelipuzik 2015年12月31日

nice work!)

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 2016年01月05日

Thanks to all for your great comments!

もしくはコメントを残す
7/66
ランキング
Introduction
I find it useful to look at the big picture from time to time. In technical analysis terms, that usually means inspection of weekly and/or monthly charts. However, I rarely get to see analysis of "ultra-high" timeframe charts, so I decided to make a couple of attempts of my own. Previously, I analysed long term charts of the Euro, the Yen, the Cable, the Swissie, the Loonie and the Aussie.
Today I'll have a look at yearly and quarterly Kiwi (NZD/USD) charts that are covering the period from 1971 to 2015. While the yearly may be of some use for a quick overview of price action, the quarterly chart offers more detail and makes trends, ranges and patterns more clearly visible. I will be focusing on the latter for my analysis.
Yearly Chart
Quarterly Chart
The Peg
A keen observer would have noted something very unusual about price action in the first couple of years. Volatility jumps from near zero level in one quarter to the level of ten or twenty cents in the next quarter and vice versa, several times. That's something that just doesn't happen in …
記事を読む
翻訳する: 英語 オリジナルを表示
Nadin5794 avatar
Nadin5794 2015年12月13日

я торгую эти пары и полностью с вами согласна

WallStreet6 avatar
WallStreet6 2015年12月28日

Interesting, thanks for the recommendation

lelipuzik avatar
lelipuzik 2015年12月31日

good job!)

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 2016年01月05日

WallStreet6 All disclaimers apply :)

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 2016年01月05日

Thanks to all for your great comments!

もしくはコメントを残す
13/66
ランキング
Introduction
I find it useful to look at the big picture from time to time. In technical analysis terms, that usually means inspection of weekly and/or monthly charts. However, I rarely get to see analysis of "ultra-high" timeframe charts, so I decided to make a couple of attempts of my own. Previously, I analysed long term charts of the Euro, the Yen, the Cable, the Swissie and the Loonie.
Today I'll have a look at yearly and quarterly Aussie charts that are covering the period from 1971 to 2015. While the yearly may be of some use for a quick overview of price action, the quarterly chart offers more detail and makes trends, ranges and patterns more clearly visible. I will be focusing on the latter for my analysis.
Yearly Chart
Quarterly Chart
The Peg
A keen observer would have noted something very unusual about price action in the first couple of years. Volatility jumps from near zero level in one quarter to the level of ten or twenty cents in the next quarter and vice versa, several times. That's something that just doesn't happen in liquid financial markets such as major currency pairs. Volatility may increase sharply when price breaks from a period of tigh…
記事を読む
翻訳する: 英語 オリジナルを表示
Olga18375 avatar
Olga18375 2015年11月25日

Good post!

Milian avatar
Milian 2015年11月26日

good article))

fxsurprise8 avatar
fxsurprise8 2015年11月30日

agree longterm more losses seem likely

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 2015年12月03日

fxsurprise8 Though the pair is holding up well in the face of all the headwinds. :)

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 2015年12月03日

Thanks to all for your great comments!

もしくはコメントを残す
15/66
ランキング
Introduction
I find it useful to look at the big picture from time to time. In technical analysis terms, that usually means inspection of weekly and/or monthly charts. However, I rarely get to see analysis of "ultra-high" timeframe charts, so I decided to make a couple of attempts of my own. Previously, I analysed long term charts of the Euro, the Yen, the Cable and the Swissie.
Today I'll have a look at yearly and quarterly Loonie charts that are covering the period from 1971 to 2015. While the yearly may be of some use for a quick overview of price action, the quarterly chart offers more detail and makes trends, ranges and patterns more easily observable. I will be focusing on the latter for my analysis.
Yearly Chart
Quarterly Chart
Broken Trendline
One of the first things that I noticed on the chart is the upward sloping channel that the pair traded in from 1971 to 2003. The channel bottom (trendline) was broken in 2004 and has been acting as a resistance since. It capped the pair in 2008 and 2009 and I expect it to continue to play that role, should the pair meet it in the future. The trendline is currently centered around 1.3750.
Fibonacci Retracements
I re…
記事を読む
翻訳する: 英語 オリジナルを表示
Milian avatar
Milian 2015年12月01日

Good article!

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 2015年12月02日

yellownight Thank you! I just started to write articles - I takes me plenty time to put together an article that I'm happy with but I guess I'll improve over time. Re Loonie: volatility in the pair has been great since oil started to slide.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 2015年12月02日

VictoriaVika Thank you very much!

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 2015年12月02日

fxsurprise8 Agreed :) And I don't think we have seen the bottom yet.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 2015年12月02日

Thanks to all for your great comments!

もしくはコメントを残す
11/66
ランキング
Introduction
I find it useful to look at the big picture from time to time. In technical analysis terms, that usually means inspection of weekly and/or monthly charts. However, I rarely get to see analysis of "ultra-high" timeframe charts, so I decided to make a couple of attempts of my own. Previously, I analysed long term charts of the Euro, the Yen and the Cable.
Today I'll have a look at yearly and quarterly Swissie charts that are covering the period from 1971 to 2015. While the yearly may be of some use for a quick overview of price action, the quarterly chart offers more detail and makes trends, ranges and patterns more easily observable. I will be focusing on the latter for my analysis.
Yearly Chart
Quarterly Chart
Downtrend and the Falling Wedge
During the period of the Bretton Woods System (1945 - 1971), Swiss franc was pegged to the U.S. dollar at a rate of 4.375 per dollar. After the system was abolished, franc started to appreciate or, in other words, the pair (USD/CHF) embarked on a downtrend. Even though both dollar and franc are considered safe haven currencies, stronger demand for the latter has also bee…
記事を読む
翻訳する: 英語 オリジナルを表示
fxsurprise8 avatar
fxsurprise8 2015年11月30日

yep SNB will follow the ECB down

Milian avatar
Milian 2015年12月01日

Good job!

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 2015年12月02日

pipx We'll see, both central banks are definitely able to surprise markets. :)

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 2015年12月02日

fxsurprise8 It appears so!

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 2015年12月02日

Thanks to all for your great comments!

もしくはコメントを残す
8/43
ランキング
Introduction
I find it useful to look at the big picture from time to time. In technical analysis terms, that usually means inspection of weekly and/or monthly charts. However, I rarely get to see analysis of "ultra-high" timeframe charts, so I decided to make a couple of attempts of my own. Previously, I analysed long term charts of the Euro and the Yen.
Today I'll have a look at yearly and quarterly Cable charts, covering the period from 1971 to 2015. While the yearly may be good for a quick overview of the price action, the quarterly chart offers more detail and makes trends, ranges and patterns more easily observable. I will be focusing on the latter for my analysis.
Yearly Chart
Quarterly Chart
The Character of the Pair
The thing that I find the most fascinating on this long term chart is that it pretty much captures the character of the pair that is known to me from trading it on lower timeframes. Long lasting trends with deep retracements; sharp rallies and sell-offs; extended ranges; and plenty of fake breakouts. Were time and price scales removed, I might not have been able to tell that it's not a daily (D1), not an intraday (H1) and not a London session price action (M5)…
記事を読む
翻訳する: 英語 オリジナルを表示
al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 2015年10月31日

Kivetat I'm of the same opinion!

foreignexchange avatar
foreignexchange 2015年11月02日

great article

KATRIN_90 avatar
KATRIN_90 2015年11月05日

ты молодец! хорошая статья)

VictoriaVika avatar
VictoriaVika 2015年11月05日

al_dcdemo , its insightful - very well done! A brilliant article. Inspiring! Many useful information, informative and helpful, also there are some useful tools introduced, thanks, Vika.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 2015年11月09日

foreignexchange, KATRIN_90, VictoriaVika Thank you!

もしくはコメントを残す
26/43
ランキング
I find it useful to look at the big picture from time to time. In technical analysis terms that usually means inspection of weekly and/or monthly charts. However, I rarely get to see analysis of "ultra-high" timeframe charts, so I decided to make few attempts of my own. Last week I analysed long term charts of the Euro. Here's the link in case you missed it: https://www.dukascopy.com/fxcomm/fx-article-contest/?A-Long-Term-Technical-Look&action=read&id=2626.
Today, I'll have a look at yearly and quarterly Yen charts. Both are covering the period from 1971 to 2015. Since platform's historical data for this pair is currently available from 1986 only, I had to fill in the missing data manually. I've drawn the candles using "Short Line" chart objects.
Yearly chart:
Quarterly chart:
Following the end of the Bretton Woods System (1971), during which the value of yen was fixed at 360 per dollar, the pair embarked on a long term downtrend which lasted until 1995 (although one might argue that it still lasts). After that, the pair entered a wedge-like sideways consolidation but it did broke below 1995 low in the 2011-2012 period. The low was set near 75 and the pair turned back up from ther…
記事を読む
翻訳する: 英語 オリジナルを表示
Airmike avatar
Airmike 2015年10月12日

nice

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 2015年10月13日

To clarify the second paragraph of the article: there is no historical data missing and Dukascopy is one of few brokers that I came across that provides the data going that far in the past and that's more than enough in most cases. But I think it would be awesome to have (daily) historical data from 1971 on all the majors and the respective crosses.

Vitalinka_Pavlenko avatar
Vitalinka_Pavlenko 2015年10月20日

Interesting post! Well done! Good luck!

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 2015年10月31日

Thanks to all for your great comments!

もしくはコメントを残す
19/43
ランキング
I find it useful to look at the big picture once in a while. In technical analysis terms that usually means inspection of weekly and/or monthly charts. However, I rarely get to see analysis of "ultra-high" timeframe charts, so I though I'd attempt do it myself.
A yearly and a quarterly EUR/USD charts are displayed below. Both are covering the same period, from 1973* to 2015. I will be focusing on the quarterly chart because of its finer detail and inclusion of additional technical tools.
* You may be wondering how is this even possible because Euro didn't exist before 1999. That's true, but the preparations for a single currency union started well before that. In 1979, the ECU (European Currency Unit) was created as an artificial currency which was basically a composite index of national currencies in the European Monetary System (EMS). I suspect that the data before 1979 is calculated using the same index.
Yearly chart:
Quarterly chart:
First feature that really stands out is the ascending channel. The usual practice is that a channel bottom (trendline) needs to be defined first, by a low and a higher low, before a parallel channel top (channel-line) could be drawn. In this case,…
記事を読む
翻訳する: 英語 オリジナルを表示
al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 2015年10月19日

Olkiss70 Thank you!

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 2015年10月19日

FxMidaso Thanks! Long term historical data (from 1973) for this pair is readily available from Dukascopy. There's one caveat though: it seems that you have to select UTC day start time to see full data. Go to: "Tools -> Preferences -> Chart -> Day start time" and set it to "GMT (UTC)". Hope this helps.

Vitalinka_Pavlenko avatar
Vitalinka_Pavlenko 2015年10月20日

very good job! interesting!

anderspirlo avatar
anderspirlo 2015年10月24日

good work

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 2015年10月31日

Thanks to all for your great comments!

もしくはコメントを残す