FX performance Q3 highlights

  • Dollar slightly down in Q3, dollar/yen flat as Fed maintains rate hike path but other central banks catch up.
  • Euro rally pauses after reaching 2 and ½ years high in September. ECB is proceeding gently with tightening policy. Political risks re-emerge in Europe.
  • Pound has a good Q3 quarter after a surprise hawkish shift by Bank of England. Brexit talks gather some momentum but take its toll on UK economy.
  • Commodity rally (especially metals). Oil also has a positive quarter amid signs that market is finally re-balancing.
FX year to date

  • US dollar off its lows as one more rate hike expected.
  • Euro’s rally has stalled on some political setbacks and ECB’s dovish tapering. Rise in German yields.
  • The pound up versus the dollar, down versus the Euro.
  • Aussie did well despite correction in Oct 2017, Kiwi is flat versus dollar.

United Stated Economy

  • Q3 GDP growth came in at 3.0%.
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