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El par de moneda USD/CAD cotiza en un punto clave luego de la inesperada 'apuñalada' que el Presidente Donald J. Trump le ha enviado al todopoderoso billete verde através del Twitter hecho que abre las puertas a un giro en la fortuna del Loonie que no estaba pasando el mejor inicio de cotizaciones durante el primer semestre de 2018.
La data histórica es evidencia indiscutible de las dificultades que la moneda de materia prima ha confrontado en 5 de los últimos 6-meses de 2018 donde la marea favorece al dólar americano. Sin embargo, el comportamiento del precio ha favorecido algunas posiciones en corto (vender) que buscan una apreciación del dólar canadiense (CAD) desde la perspetiva técnia, así como fundamental.
¿Inicio de la tendencia bajista por un Tweet de Donald J. Trump?
No es necesario adelantarse, pero tampoco se debe dejar de lado ciertas realidades que afectan en este momento la posición de 'Rey' del Dólar. Las dinámicas de comunicación permiten que una figura relevante como el Presidente de los Estados Unidos de Norteamérica tenga cierto grado de poder en los mercados con sus comentarios que eventualmente sí/no terminan en alguna acción con peso tangible.
Sin embargo, el …
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Dominos avatar
Dominos 25 July

great article!

AAAnya avatar
AAAnya 26 July

Cool article!

thedoctor avatar
thedoctor 17 Aug.


anvifx avatar
anvifx 28 Aug.

Good article!

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1. Introduction:

An emerging market currency is the money of a country that is in the process of economic advancement. National economies that are considered to be emerging markets typically experience an extended period of robust growth in the industrial production sector in addition to the expansion of their economy as a whole. This growth in output acts as a catalyst towards the development of infrastructure and technology.
2. The Main Countries:
Although a concrete definition of an emerging market remains largely debatable, five nations are widely considered world leaders in the category. Known by the acronym BRIC they are as follows: Brazil, Russia, India, China .
Each country of BRIC has experienced explosive growth in its (GDP) along with periods of uncertainty created by debt concerns and political unrest.
As of year-end 2015, the countries of BRICS have the following global rank in GDP PPP:
  • Brazil: 7th (US$3.1 trillion)
  • Russia: 6th (US$3.5 trillion)
  • India: 3rd (US$7.9 trillion)
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Olkiss70 avatar
Olkiss70 2 July

nice article

AlisaVictoria1881 avatar


Xkasnov avatar
Xkasnov 9 July

Nice one!

daniellabas avatar


AS_binary_option_trader avatar

nice article

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Доброго времени суток друзья. Статья будет описывать торговые идеи о четырех валютных парах и сырьевом активе BREND.На этой недели выйдет блок информационной статистики которая окажет влияние на валютные пары представленные ниже.
Фундаментальный Анализ
Иностранные инвестиции в японские акции (июн 23) пред. ¥-331,6B
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ImranMughal99 avatar


AnnaZhurina avatar

Супер !

AnnaZhurina avatar

Очень хорошая статья !!!

NikaTigra avatar


Verenea777 avatar

Хорошие торговые идеи .

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As an introduction, I would like to say, that what you are about to read is a prediction in the behaviour of the Forex market, reached after an analysis of different aspects and variables that I think strongly affect this market, it is important to note, that traders and analysts must usually try to figure out what is going on in the markets with incomplete data, and often two different analysts end up in different conclusions even when they start with the same data. This is why every trader, must base their operative on their own analysis and anyone using this article as a guideline, is doing it on their own responsibility.
The price of the USDCAD pair is drawing an interesting triangle in the daily chart, between the levels reached on January 2016 of almost 1.47, and the 1.25 level reached on May 2016. After that, the price have been moving quietly between those levels, until the current point in 1.307, where, as I am going to explain, it’s about to go up, but in my opinion, only to achieve and probably for the last time, the levels of the upper line of the triangle, and from that point on, start falling for a long lasting period of time, that according to…
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gargantua avatar
gargantua 17 Feb.

nice article

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`One of the smartest things I have ever heard when we talk about trading and business in general goes "Fail to plan and you plan to fail". Of course having a plan doesn't automatically translates into success and profit. But even if you lose money, you can be at peace with yourself because you developed a plan and followed it. Of course, modifications and fine tuning of your trading plan will also help.
So, what is our plan ? I have defined a scalping strategy which consists of three basic elements:
1) Trend - The price has to be in a clear downtrend. Usually, the price breaks the support, clears stops and then reverses and tests the resistance i.e. previous support.
2) Hammer candlestick pattern - A bullish reversal pattern which consists of a long lower wick which is at least two times smaller than the body of the candle. The close should be at top of the candle.
3) Volume - The volume has to be higher than for the previous candle, which usually is a red candle. The bigger difference between volume in these two candles, the greater reversal will be.
EURUSD 5 min chart
GBPUSD 5 min chart
USDCAD 5 min chart
Trade management
Good charts will help you a lot and create a great…
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tdbatinkov avatar
tdbatinkov 24 Aug.

yes !!! this is powerful strategy ..

Sennna88 avatar
Sennna88 24 Aug.

thanks everyone!

Marenno avatar
Marenno 26 Aug.


scramble avatar
scramble 28 Aug.

interesting setup, do you use it profitably? any result on last 2months?

tangell avatar
tangell 30 Aug.

занимательно замечательно

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This article looks at:
+ what has happened from technical perspective only and my expectations for USD/CAD for the near term;
as well as
+ how to use its "guiding lights" to look for tradable opportunities.

"Guiding lights" for USD/CAD
What we have on USD/CAD chart shall include over-lays of 2 CFD Commodities (accessed using the red, circled button) - for BRENT.CMD/USD (i.e., Brent Crude Oil) as well as LIGHT.CMD/USD (i.e., Light Sweet Crude Oil) as shown :
As a big portion of Canada foreign exchange earnings is garnered through crude oil sales; thus, the bearishness/bullish of oil price will negatively/positively influence CAD accordingly. Moreover, it also helped that both the 2 CFD Commodities have USD as their quote currency.
We could see such relations by how BRENT.CMD/USD (red, swiggly line) and LIGHT.CMD/USD (blue, swiggly line) moves with inverse correlation to USD/CAD (candlesticks) from here :
Once USD/CAD broke above the dashed (light-green) horizontal resistance line, we could see how USD/CAD began its sustained bullish trend.
On the flip-side, both CFDs concurrently began their sustained bearish moves when they broke below their dashed (red and blue) horizontal suppor…
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FX_Riper avatar
FX_Riper 12 Sep.

You welcome edlim ..... please keep the highly informative articles coming, the point of view of you as a traders is the learning lecture of other, like me in this case .... ))))

edlim avatar
edlim 12 Sep.


I'll take whatever or whoever that helps- accept with all my heart.

^^ y

TheSaniiaAle avatar

great article!)

fx211pips avatar
fx211pips 24 Sep.

great article, loonie can be tricky sometimes as it is correlated with oil strongly

alibaba avatar
alibaba 14 Oct.

Good luck

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Before read article,
who didn't read the first article "USDCAD back in time" , (you found HERE ) , i advise to read it for understand the concept out below.
In the previous articles , first USDCAD than AUDUSD , we seen the correlation of these cross with own seasonality ,the correlation of USDCAD between the last seven years and actual movement to prove matter of this kind of Analisys.
From article “USDCAD back in time!

"Last Friday, there was the break of the high of thursday's candle , from chart we can see the PIN Bullish of friday , maybe a possible " trade can do at end of retracement in 1.2770 area , with stop under PIN (some pips more for fake break) . “
How many of you all did that trade?
How many gained more than 100pips with it?

I believe only who expected that , and who read my article on USDCAD!
USDCAD Daily chart at 17 June
The analisys on USDCAD not end, we are still in the seasonality movement and seen the last results, we can be more trustful on quality of this amazing forecast tool!
USDCAD Seasonality part 2
This time i analisted the cross with time frame H1 , always with seven years media.
"I want explain that this type of analisys is
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Natalia_Kisenko avatar

good job!

Milian avatar
Milian 25 June

great article!)

hrustiashka avatar

Very good and informative article!

Forex_champion avatar

good job

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Trader colleagues , in this article i'll steal a little of your time (no much, time is money! ) for a look on USDCAD and his seasonality.
Seasonality?! Don't forget that men do always same things, and currency too , i hope , but stop talking and go on. (sorry for my english , i know...)
First chart , USDCAD daily from 01 April - today
Surely setup of this cross is bull , in medio-long term , but we try to forecast a possible trend in the next weeks, start from this period but back in time! in these last seven years.
Second chart, USDCAD average 7 years 2009-2015 , 01 April - 31 August
It sounds familiar ?! This trend feature USDCAD from seven years in the same period , 1 April to 31 August. You not belive me?
Ok, i show you the next chart..
Third chart , USDCAD WEEKLY 2009-2016
How you can see from that, the seasonality is clear, not same al 100% but similar almost enough.
My idea "We be in a movement like "Cup and handle" in long term , and now we are on base of possible handle!"
This signal may be the start of a new trend long!
Of course , colleagues , the seasonality not is a cristal ball! But i believe that we should spent few minutes and think on "possibility " to risk little…
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TRAD3R avatar
TRAD3R 16 June

USDCAD 130,27 !!!! :P

Natalia_Kisenko avatar

well done!

brilliant avatar
brilliant 17 June

nice observations , good luck

Durden avatar
Durden 30 June

Probably you can find some support with the Hidden Markov models.
The cycles could be studied analitically with that models.
Thanks for the article and good trading

TRAD3R avatar
TRAD3R 30 June

Thanks u Durden , "Hidden Markov models" , thank you for the tip :)

orto leave comments
As we are in the middle of April where we had a lot of interesting events on the forex and how we approach the end of the month we will have a growing excitement and a wealth of events that could change the trends since the beginning of the year. As noted in the previous article Forex Weekly Outlook - Still selling dollars , announced a series of articles and explain in what way I processed themes and this week we continue with a detailed technical and fundamental analysis of the two currency pairs as well as with giving my opinion on how it will continue to move. In selecting the two currency pairs especially want to hear the requirements of members of the community who can write in a comment on the article that the pair want to analyze. the most interesting currency pairs that had significant changes by events or had large breakouts to significant levels will be analyzed. This week I received a request to private messages to analyze eurusd I usdcad.
EURUSD Fundamental analysis After a failed attempt to break above, eurusd dropped and broke some of the most important support. On the side of fundamental analysis, we had several important data in the EU positive thing is that the re…
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Sennna88 avatar
Sennna88 20 Apr.

Very informative article. Great level to watch!

Govagent avatar
Govagent 25 Apr.

Thanks 4 the info buddy ^_^

s_amira avatar
s_amira 23 May

Very good job!

Tach avatar
Tach 26 May

good analyse

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В последнее время стало модным писать о конкурсе фундаментального анализа, поэтому хочу вставить свои «5 копеек». Многие участники сообщества периодически высказывают предположение, что временной промежуток в 10 минут слишком мал, чтобы в полной мере повлиять на движение соответствующей валютной пары.
В этой статье приведены результаты небольшого исследования, призванного выяснить - так ли это на самом деле?
Особенности подбора данных для исследования
Вначале из экономического календаря были взяты наиболее значимые события за 2016 г.
Затем изъяты следующие типы новостей:
  • Новости, эффект которых нельзя измерить математически или не дающие мгновенного влияния на валютные пары (выступления глав центробанков, финансовых чиновников, протоколы заседаний комиссий по денежно-кредитной политике и т.п.);
  • События, актуальные значения которых совпали с прогнозами аналитиков (в основном, процентные ставки, ВВП, различные индексы инфляции);
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Nihad avatar
Nihad 29 Feb.

@Olkiss The whole idea is just like the PMI can tell us, that the future for GBPNZD is up, so can your analysis

Nihad avatar
Nihad 29 Feb.

Olkiss70  I hope you get my idea, but please take this idea of yours one step higher, to a LEADING DIRECTION indicator, where news only reveal the intentions of the big market players.

Olkiss70 avatar
Olkiss70 29 Feb.

thank you, Nihad... my english is not good enough to understand everything you wrote ))  I will read it again later

Nihad avatar
Nihad 29 Feb.

Olkiss70 I just thought these comments would help for now :), tomorrow is another day :) WINK, good luck buddy

Olkiss70 avatar
Olkiss70 29 Feb.

thank you, Nihad :)

orto leave comments
Разворот или неожиданный прогноз по Brent!
Сейчас только ленивый не шортит нефть и все как заговорённые в один голос предрекают падения нефти до 25$, а после падения в плоть до 15$ за баррель и ниже складывается ощущения что чем хуже прогноз огласит то или иное аналитическое агентство или эксперт тем оно истинное! И вот когда я слышу такие вот апокалипсические прогнозы, я начинаю думать, а куда бегут все, вернее сказать, куда всех ведут! И если процитировать классиков Биржевой Игры быки и медведи зарабатывают, а свиней, как правило, режут и я задумываюсь, а не ведут ли эту толпу на убой! И как заманчиво сейчас это сделать! И для этого есть очень весомые предпосылки!
1.Углеводороды могут подорожают за счёт роста спроса со стороны Китая и США. Поскольку добыча нефти на большинстве сланцевых месторождений в Штатах при текущих ценах на сырьё попросту нерентабельна, объёмы добычи «черного золота» в Америке замедляются а в каких то местах даже встают из-за финансовых проблем производителей. Поэтому упорство разработчиков месторождений сланцевой нефти и погоня за черным золотом сыграло с ними злую шутку так как цена ниже 40$ за баррель является слишком низкой для промышленности в сфере …
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cba777 avatar
cba777 12 Jan.

Хорошая статья. То что нефть пробъет отметку в 30 у.е. это факт, что пройдет ниже тоже большая вероятность, Но то, что нефть там задержится больше чем на пару-тройку недель это мало вероятно. А как же про Иран то не упомянул ;-)

Eldar avatar
Eldar 13 Jan.

Спасибо! Да не знаю что то я опустил Иран!) он бы наверно и не влез в статью!) но думаю что все таки средняя годовая стоимость, барреля будет все таки кружиться в районе 50$, в 2016г.  даже если Иран полностью вернется на рынок! 

Eldar avatar
Eldar 13 Jan.

два раза все таки написал )) сори не проснулся еще))

cba777 avatar
cba777 13 Jan.

Полностью согласен! 50$ плюс-минус 10-15$. Там должны болтаться.

Eldar avatar
Eldar 13 Jan.

Еще раз спасибо!  Ясно что нефть, так же как и газ,  это инструменты политической манипуляции. Но у нефти есть cсправедливая  фундаментальная цена и она явно не 30$ за баррель!

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1.0 Introduction - Canada Economy
In terms of volume of trade it is among the top ten countries in the world. The economy in Canada is mixed. Since the early 1990s, the Canadian economy is growing fast, with low unemployment rates and surpluses at the federal level. Today, Canada resembles the US in market-oriented economic system, model production and a high standard of living.
In February 2009, the national unemployment rate was 7.77%. The provincial unemployment rate varies from a low of 3.6% in Alberta to a high of 14.6% in Newfoundland and Labrador.
In the past century, the growth of industry, mining, and service sectors has transformed the country mainly rural economy in a predominantly industrial and urban land. As in all wealthy countries, the Canadian economy dominated by the service sector, which employs about three quarters of Canadians. However, Canada is unusual among developed countries on the importance of the primary sector, as the wood and oil industry two the most important industry in Canada.
Canada is one of the few developed countries, which is an exporter of energy. Canada in the Atlantic Ocean has huge reserves of natural gas, and oil and gas deposits are con…
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WallStreet6 avatar

Nice to learn some facts about the Canadian economy

khalidam avatar
khalidam 28 July

Excellent work.

pipericky avatar
pipericky 28 July

Very nice article.

monjurul avatar
monjurul 30 July

Divergence shows everything. Good work.

raulafx avatar
raulafx 30 July


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Trading Summary: The markets 3 week love affair with the Pound appears to have run its course. As simple as traders forget about news after awhile. Canada employment blew away the forecasts to the upside and USDCAD dropped 50 points in a minute. DOW declined after European close, bringing the USD higher by days end.Looks like another low
volatility day. The short term (2 week) most recent uptrend in the USD looks
very strong going into Monday. Would probably be best to buy the USD and kick
back. If you do wait for the London opening or later, may be best to focus on USD
buy trades. Once again the EB and Swing are not stand alone do-able due to very
low volatility.The Hong Kong stock index had its worse in weeks in which it shed between 3-5% of its value. Selling off on Monday after the big gap on the bullish uptrend, gives an indication to a stronger USD for this week, strengthening this - the main focus is on JP Morgan's trading loss for more risk aversion. Futhermore the BOE decided against the increase of its Asset Purchase Facility as upside risk to inflation continue to pose rmore negativity in the GBP after the country dipped back into recession. 
US Retail sales ex-auto has …
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RobertBric avatar

This is all nice but…how should one trade all this volatility? Just mentioning SMA(60) is not enough. Without such “instructions” this stands as just one more CNBC style analysis which states the obvious fact that markets move and provide trading opportunities. All the very best with your trading during this volatile week.

alifari avatar
alifari 19 May

This week provided lot of volatility as expected

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EURUSD - EURUSD roes sharply this week from 1.2640 to 1.2930 a substantial rise.Most believed to be on the back of short covering but the recent COT report suggests otherwise as it hit Record Shorts of -160K from -155K Net Short contracts.Fundamentals - Greece, Italy and Germany are running the markets recently andfor the foreseeable future, with Europes debt crisis being far more important than any US news. Greece is dangerously close to the edge with its next major debt repayment date being March 20th. If Greece doesn't pay it could trigger a credit event meaning CDS's have to be paid and this could lead to greater problems than 2008 and lehman brother.You just have to look at Greek 1 yrs ( yielding 390% and 10yrs ( at 34%Those figures are entirly unsustainable and greece will most likely Default.Technicals - We saw EURUSD brake up above a desecding trendline and rise to just short of 1.300 - a major pyschological level - which if broken will lead to massive short covering which could potentially push up 200+ pips.we appered to have bottomed at just above 1.26 with a fa…
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DaddyPapi avatar
DaddyPapi 23 Jan.

Nice article, I have a similar outlook for the AUD USD and the EURO AUD & EURO CAD (my next article). But I think the EURO USD is gonna head back bearish for the same economic reasons as the other EURO pairs and the high correlation between EURO USD still hasnt hit the support of the Monthly Chart´s triangle as yet..

kkforex avatar
kkforex 24 Jan.

I guess euro is going to head back down after 1.3150..when USDX tests around 78.

doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 25 Jan.

The Euro has not gone bearish Yet. Everybody is waiting to short the Euro. Good Fundamental and Technical Analysis.+1 I make my analysis on both bearish and bullish scenarios.

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Since the late July pump and dump that occurred across equities bringing risk off in a rapid fashion we have seen prices reverse at some key lower extremity levels of our quantitative models.Because there is a distinct lack of yield available to fund managers at present we are seeing a continual push back into currency pairs with positive interest rate bias' along with commodities as a store of value against the continued fall of the USD.We believe that for the near term a bottom may be in for the key indices however we still believe that we could see new lows across all the major indexes but this will need substantial news catalysts and the end of August/early September is starting to build a number of news items on the docket so appears to most obvious near term cause of a ramp in volatility.So in the near term we are looking to take opportunities for appreciation in risk pairs, forward rate bias income (most notably from the AUDUSD) and exposure to commodities.Given we are bullish WTI Crude up to the $93.00 handle we are watching USDCAD as a proxy for this move and more specifically looking for a break of the 0.9835 level for a minimum target of 0.9720 with 0.9680 forming our ne…
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signalfund avatar
signalfund 16 Aug.

We do, although volume is limited due to the northern hemisphere summer the crux of the matter is that there are still many many long only fund managers and fund managers with diversification mandates in their fund constitutions that require assets to be allocated. Due to the distinct lack of other yield investments at present the risk pairs with their positive rate bias and commodities that are rising due to the USD depreciation are a liquid and logical option. As 3 days of interest are paid at 5pm NY time on Wednesdays this adds to the reason that riskies will be bid into close today.

signalfund avatar
signalfund 17 Aug.

Worth taking off half your position here at 0.9780 if you just want a short term trade. On our client accounts we are now out 1/2 at 0.9780 + 50 pips with balance remaining for the 0.9680 target zone.

ritesh avatar
ritesh 25 Aug.

Markets are scared of, your model looks promising dude. +1

LinnuxFX avatar
LinnuxFX 25 Aug.

Good Analitics for on mounth , good job ...

ritesh avatar
ritesh 28 Aug.

check out my articles too at

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