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21/53
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With the Greek debt crisis resolved, at least for a couple of months, the main subject influencing the foreign currency markets are monetary policies in various countries, esspecially it's main element which is the interest rates. As all main economies are don't seem to be fully on a growth path allowing for a monetary ploicy tightening in the form of raising interst rates, all eyes are now on the Fed as it seems that that's where the first rate hike will take place. With the US economy showing much improvement in recent months and chairwoman Yellen making some hints that a potential rate hike could take place as soon as September the USD has appreciated in recent weeks posibly already pricing in a September rate hike. However, last week we have seen the USD decline against all major currencies except the Yen. The USD Index shows the fluctutaion of the USD against a basket of 6 currencies: EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, CHF and SEK. Last week it has dropped from about 97.60 to around 96.60.
Therefore, the question arises whether last week's drop of the USD is a temporary retracement which will make more room for the USD to appreciate in anticipation of a rate hike or is the market actually se…
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WallStreet6 avatar

Thanks:)

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 29 Aug.

Useful information, very well explained and written. Nice job!

WallStreet6 avatar

Thanks:)

Margoshka avatar
Margoshka 30 Aug.

nice

Margoshka avatar
Margoshka 30 Aug.

good

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13/33
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Abstract The US GDP announcements are investigated using a 1 min. chart for spot Euro-Sterling exchange rates. A trading strategy is tested for the GDP/USD to take economic advantage of these relevant releases.The results of each individual tested macroeconomic announcement is described in function of the volatility, the profit and the difference between the forecast and the release values. The results suggest that the strategy respond in a statistically significant manner to the US GDP releasing information reported by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The efficiency of the strategy is correlated to the relevant differences between the ex ante and ex post volatility.This study utilises the data for Euro-Sterling provided by the Dukascopy Platform.
Keywords US, GDP, forex strategy, hedging strategy, Cable, GBP/USD. Introduction
Foreign exchange (FX) volatility is correlated to notable macroeconomic announcements as they provide information on the overall state of the countries economy as indicated on the works of Luc Bauwens, Walid Ben Omrane, Pierre Giot.This can result in changes in FX rates as market participants change their positions.The interest in FX volatility pa…
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Daytrader21 avatar

Very well written and I'm very impressed by the high level of information, however there is one thing that this strategy doesn't take in consideration, which is the spread and as rokasltu has already mentioned it can Very well written and I'm, very impressed your strategy can be negatively skewed.

marius24 avatar
marius24 30 Dec.

Hope this strategy will help you to earn some money. Good luck

khalidamassi avatar

seemed useful article, rich with figures and tables,but in real accounts scalping during strong news like US GDP is not easy, due to quick up, down movement it is not warrant that the order will be activated or closed according to your entries.at all, you have strong article and should compete here.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 31 Dec.

As some readers have pointed out, and from own experience, news trading is no easy task for retail traders due to increased slippage and spread. So in my opinion it is absolutely vital to incorporate these two parameters into strategy. Very well written article.

Stix avatar
Stix 4 Jan.

Thank you so much... I thought it was very well written and useful. :) :)

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8/51
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____________________________________________________________________________________Throughout this I will try to answer the question that is really troubling everyone in the financial world, and that is whether or not the worldwide economy has finally stopped worsening and will start to rise again.I'll start by showing charts of global Equity indices now I'm sure I don't need to explain how these can be used as barometers for the health of the economy these are derived from. Because of this these are a good place to start as it "should" show how different regions are performing relative to others.S&P500 5yr chart - Thomson ReutersIBEX 35 5yr Chart - Thomson ReutersDAX 30 5yr - Thomson ReutersShanghai Composite 5yr - Thomson ReutersIt is clear from these 4 selected regions that there are 2 clear winners and 2 clear losers; US and Western Europe (Germany) are performing very well where as China and Spain aren't doing very well at all.Now lets see if these values are fair or should they be very different. I will start with the housing industry. a section of the economy that many people believe to be the most important indicator for growth and health of the economy. __________________…
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scramble avatar
scramble 14 Feb.

nice article as always, and interesting topic! when looking at these numbers always a question come to my mind: why euro is still so much stronger than usd? i really can't find any kind of fundamental reason allowing such a difference (more than 30%). :)

doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 18 Feb.

You seem to be one of the most complex traders in this community and I respect that. As fr the Bottom of the Economy, I think this is just the beginning, because the stimulus measures from the central banks corraborated with the enormous international debts of the strongest economies(most of them have a debt higher than 80% of GDP) will generate even tighter budget cuts and tax increases like we are able to see in the US these months. One thing is certain : Global Economy will never be the same as before. The real question is: What is it evolving into?... What will be the alternative?...

AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 18 Feb.

Thank you for your kind words :)

And yes, the Global economy has shifted into something completely different thing which not even the head of Goldman knows will look like for another 10 years. The large debt is of course a worry and should not be underestimated like it is from some (krugman) and it will make growth very hard for the G20 nations over the coming decade.

Frankly I feel like we've past a point of no-return with the global economy and while it may improve short term the longer term picture isn't so rosy.

scramble avatar
scramble 19 Feb.

i agree. i will be expecting a clear change during this year between the 2nd and the 3rd quarter. definetly things can't keep going like this forever..... i hope! :) hey, noticed you ready with some live webinars! that will be very interesting :)

OneGoodTrade avatar

It's more like an answer then a question ... and I agree with it. +1 for a good article and A+ for your original idea.

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21/43
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Fiscal Cliff - what the Fuzz is Happening?Hi everybody, I hope you're all OK. I know I promised that we're going to continue with the series of Candlestick Patterns, but coming to the end of 2012, thank God nothing Apocalyptic happened yet, we are due to another very important date. And that date is midnight 31st of December, 2012. This is the night where everything could change regarding the US economy, or the World for that matter.The budgetary troubles and debates all over the world's countries never get agreed upon with ease. The problem is that there's always somebody with a "better" idea of how to solve one country's fiscal issues. In a general normal case, basically the governing administration comes with a budgetary proposal on how the money's going to get spent, what kind of investments the country is going to make, what figures in terms of GDP, cost borrowing, inflation adjustment etc. is the country going to see for the near future. Then you got the opposing parties that basically "never" agree. Understanding that the democratic system provides a field for such debates and controversies, which whether it is healthful or not, that's totally debatable and another realm of …
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Koko avatar
Koko 24 Dec.

Nice article as always. Yes we should be more careful this week as you mentioned, cause things could turn for the worse at the end of this Year. Hope not

gjimi avatar
gjimi 24 Dec.

good job... plako

GicaEric avatar
GicaEric 24 Dec.

Thanks guys. If you have any questions, I'm happy to answer.

@Koko, agreed buddy, we should be very careful. :D

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40/68
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Between problems in Europe and problems in the US the EUR/USD currency pair has it's fair share of up's and down's. Troubles with the European Union namely Italian and Spanish bond yields coupled with a Non Farm Payroll miss in the US means traders of the pair have some big decisions to make. Friday, after the jobs number came out the reaction was clear, Euro up, Dollar down which was strange to some as the US index futures were taking a hit at the same time the dollar was. This was a product of a reversal in the trend of US dollar inflows supporting the dollar recently. The US was the least ugliest duck in the pond so money flowed in to buy US assets. The recent rise in Spanish bond yields is the real culprit I suspect though. The US jobs number was just the straw that broke the camels back. That will make the pressure to raise Euro's stronger than the pressure to raise dollars in the coming week as a lot of the inflow into the US came from Europe.. Also the likelihood of more US QE should weaken the dollar across the board.  A look at the pair on a monthly chart shows the roller coaster ride traders have been on for the past 3 years. . Notice the last two months on the chart show…
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