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1/28
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В своих предыдущих статьях я предложил вашему вниманию вариант торговой стратегии на базе индикатора Time Segmented Volume и простой средней кривой Simple Moving Average (см. здесь), а также провел ее короткое лайв тестирование (см. здесь). Однако, так как малое количество данных не позволило сделать окончательные выводы, возникла необходимость исторического тестирования упомянутой торговой стратегии на более продолжительном временном периоде. В настоящей статье мы рассмотрим полученные результаты.
Напомню, что по результатам лайв тестирования был сделан вывод, что наша стратегия не подходит для пары AUD/USD. Поэтому тестирование проводилось в автоматическом режиме только на пяти валютных парах: EUR/USD; GBP/USD; USD/CAD; USD/CHF; USD/JPY.
1. Условия тестирования
Период тестирования – 01.01.2017-30.09.2017
Фиксированный StopLoss – 24
Фиксированный TakeProfit – 48
2. Результаты в разрезе валютных пар
2.1. Пара: EUR/USD
Резюме: Всего за период 66 ордеров, из них 29 прибыльных. Общий итог +615 пунктов. Учитывая минимальные месячные просадки и конечный результат, лучшая пара для применения нашей стратегии. Однако, стоит учесть, что почти треть итоговых 615 пунктов было по…
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wind87 avatar
wind87 28 Oct.

good job

Aviator avatar
Aviator 29 Oct.

well done

Yulia10 avatar
Yulia10 30 Oct.

good work

yellownight avatar

удачи

Verona888 avatar

Great job!

orto leave comments
18/54
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The USD/JPY is a difficult pair to forecast under the current political and macroeconomic climate. The Japanese Yen is seen as a safe haven, but the US dollar remains under the influence of a hawkish FED. The North Korean provocations and the FED meeting could both swing the USD/JPY pair in either direction.
This situation is clearer if we look at the monthly and weekly charts of even just a week ago. In the monthly chart (chart 1) snapshot, taken on Friday September 9 2017, we see a strong downward move. This move was key for two reasons: one, it was below the 50% Fibonacci level, and two, it established a new low after several previous attempts at that price area.
The 50% Fibonacci level stood at 109.9 and although two previous attempts of a break had even reached the next Fibonacci level in previous months, neither of those moves or the other attempts had managed to close below 109.90, apart from a marginal close below that level in August.
Chart 1

The weekly chart (chart 2) of that week was also making a strong case for a continuation of the bearish move as it showed the pair reaching new lows well below a 50% Fibonacci level of 111.35.
Chart 2

If we look at the sna…
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RahmanSL avatar
RahmanSL 26 Sep.

Yes, these days the USD/JPY is a difficult pair to trade....now it's compounded with news of Abe intention to hold a snap election.
Where will the USD/JPY go?...it's anybody's guess!

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3/54
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В своей предыдущей статье я предложил вариант торговой стратегии на базе индикатора Time Segmented Volume и простой средней кривой Simple Moving Average. Детально о ней вы можете прочитать здесь. В течение второй половины месяца, с 16 по 31 августа 2017 года, я провел ее тестирование на шести валютных парах: AUD/USD; EUR/USD; GBP/USD; USD/CAD; USD/JPY; USD/JPY. Все сигналы на открытие ордеров и результаты торгов я постил в своем блоге, где вы их можете просмотреть. Сейчас пришло время анализа результатов.
1. Настройки стратегии при тестировании
Для всех валютных пар использовался часовой таймфрейм. Stop Loss выставлялся под минимумом или над максимумом текущей свечи, или у ближайшего ключевого уровня, не снимался и не переносился. Take Profit выставлялся из расчета 2/1 к Stop Loss. Ручное закрытие ордеров проводилось только в случае появления сигнала на вход в противоположном направлении и в конце торговой недели.
2. Результаты в разрезе валютных пар
2.1. Пара: AUD/USD

Резюме: Торговых возможностей много (всего 8 ордеров, из них прибыльных 3), но неравномерно по времени. Много сигналов на вход в противоположном направлении. Доходность околонулевая (+7 пунктов), риски высокие.
2
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BIGBO avatar
BIGBO 29 Sep.

Thank you all for your support!

Wovch avatar
Wovch 4 Oct.

good

Alexander22 avatar

well done

Klaudia25 avatar
Klaudia25 13 Oct.

great article

klintons avatar
klintons 13 Feb.

Good Job

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3/69
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The outcome of FOMC meeting of Federal Reserve of United States of America is a much anticipated event worldwide. The Forex market players keep a close watch on the economic data and political situation globally in lead up to the meeting to be able to accurately forecast the likely outcome of two day bi-monthly meeting of Federal Open Market Committee. The CME group's FedWatch tool was pricing in a probability of nearly 95 % of a 0.25% rate increase in FOMC target range of Federal Fund rates from 0.25%-0.50% to 0.50%-0.75%. The significance of this rate hike can be gauged from the fact that it is only second time in a decade that Federal Reserve has raised the rates.
The markets reactions to such high important events is what gives us opportunity to make big profits because of the increased volatility associated with it. If you have a trade set up which is supported by fundamental analysis as well as technical analysis I see no reason why you won't be on the winning side. So I decided to prepare a trade set up exclusively for the FOMC meeting. I did a whole lot study to figure out the best possible trades for this event. Now that I have reaped the benefits I decided to share it wi…
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hema91 avatar
hema91 31 Dec.

Good article!

varunk80 avatar
varunk80 9 Jan.

great job.

Yulia10 avatar
Yulia10 14 Jan.

very good article

Uladzimir avatar
Uladzimir 27 Jan.

отлично

minamina avatar
minamina 27 Feb.

nice

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22/65
Ranking
Mr. Donald Trump's rise as next president of USA has taken many by surprise around the globe. If we were to believe mainstream media, seasoned political analyst, policy wonk, opinion polls,and even betting industry odds: the chances of Mr. Trump emerging victorious were so low that not many bothered to give a serious look at his plans for the US economy and the society at large. As the destiny would have it Mr. Trump is there ready to take charge at the White house as the 45th President of United states of America. There will be many new developments in economy breaking the status quo as Mr. Trump has promised to make america great again.
If we look at the US equity markets reaction in days leading to US election day of 8th November 2016, we probably get a feeling that markets were in favor of Mrs. Clinton's victory. After FBI chief Mr. Comey's letter stating reopening of investigation into Mrs. Clinton's private email server case to US congress committee markets began to tank on the increased possibility of Mr Truump's victory. Now that Mr Trump has actually won we are seeing all the three leading indices treading near all time highs.
1)EUR/USD
EUR/USD has gone from 1.130 on 8th…
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Elens94 avatar
Elens94 4 Dec.

cool:)

anashape avatar
anashape 5 Dec.

thanks for sharing! it was interesting to read!

MR_KHALEDBADRY avatar

very good

Enju avatar
Enju 6 Dec.

отлично написано

loriana avatar
loriana 9 Dec.

Good article

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2/56
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Introduction
The article aims to provide a comprehensive trading strategy for traders, who are new to the Forex Market.
Technical Indicators
The main focus is on the Trendlines, by reference, we will also be looking at the Candles, SMA and Bollinger Band, in this regard.
Trader shall be able to set up the indicators' value, listed below;
SMA - 30
Bollinger Band
  1. Price - close price
  2. Time period - 20
  3. Dev up & down - 2
  4. MA type - EMA

Strategy
Graph 1

In this technical graph, we are looking at the USD/JPY 5 minutes' analyses. Innitially,we see there was a surge, and then dropped back to point A. In most cases, at this point we will be able to draw the upward trendline, the buying levels are at point A and B. When it breaks the trendline, with three candles staying below the line, that point C would be the break even level(The black line). At point C, trader must take profit.
Graph 2
From point C, there was another upward movement, trader should stay clam and wait for point a or point D. From point a, we can re-draw an upward trendline, and start taking short when we find point D, which three candles staying below the trendlines. More importantly, breaking the break even level. Ther…
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k_morocco avatar

good job

FXNOAD avatar
FXNOAD 1 Nov.

good article. 

TInna avatar
TInna 1 Nov.

wery well!

angelina_may avatar

good

MR_KHALEDBADRY avatar

good job

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4/47
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Traders spend a lot of time and energy trying to find the Perfect System. They argue that they will struck it rich once they find THE SYSTEM or if they’re discretionary, once they refine their trading enough. It has long been my assertion that risk control and diversification are much more important then the trading system itself.
I've argued that you don't have to be a genius trader in order to make money in the markets. In fact you can make money with remarkably simple trading systems. In this article we'll go over one system that has only 1 entry/exit trading rule. Yes you read that right, ONE. Here's a little preview of the results for this system.
Toward the end of the article I present a four-year backtest of this system on the four most liquid currency pairs EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD and AUD/USD. Here is the simplest system on this entire website.
Ten-Month Moving Average System
There is only 1 entry/exit rule. If price closes above the 10-month simple moving average, you buy. If price falls below the 10-month moving average, you sell. This is a Stop and Reverse System (SAR). Once your long gets the exit signal (price below 10 SMA) you close the position and initiate a n…
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faisal777 avatar
faisal777 25 Aug.

good work

bibo avatar
bibo 5 Sep.

thanks for sharing with us

angelina_may avatar

interesting

TInna avatar
TInna 8 Sep.

great article! keep it up)

rashadali avatar

very good article )

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28/52
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Los mejores pares de divisas para operar en Forex
En el mercado de divisas Forex (abreviatura de Foreign Exchange), podemos negociar con decenas de monedas como pueden ser euros, dólares, yenes, libras, francos suizos, etc, etc...
A la hora de operar con cualquier producto de cualquier mercado es imprescindible conocer las características de ese mercado y de cada producto en particular que se negocie en ese mercado.
En concreto, si hacemos operativa intradía o scalping, lo más importante es conocer cuales son los productos más líquidos, los más negociados, los que tengan menos spread (diferencia entre precio de oferta y precio de demanda) y saber cual es el grado de volatilidad medio que suelen tener diariamente (nos sirve el indicador ATR para conocer ese dato).
Bien, empiezo con una lista con las monedas más negociadas del mundo. En primer lugar por bastante diferencia tenemos el USD $ (United States Dollar), seguido del EUR € (Euro), JPY ¥ (Yen Japonés), GBP £ (Libra Esterlina), etc. Veamos los porcentajes de negociación de cada moneda:
Sabiendo cuales son las monedas más negociadas del Forex nos falta saber cuales son los pares o cruces de monedas más negociados y líquid…
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hrustiashka avatar

Thanks for the article! Good job!)

brilliant avatar
brilliant 18 June

special article. nice

JuliannaS avatar
JuliannaS 19 June

Good explanation)))

CharmingRimma avatar

so nice!

Olkiss70 avatar
Olkiss70 25 June

very interesting

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7/59
Ranking
Traders often say ‘’follow the smart money’’ or follow the big money. But how are you supposed to do that? The closest we have to knowing what the ‘’Smart Money is doing in forex is the COT report. But that report comes out late on Friday and only includes the positioning as of Wednesday. So by the time we get to trade on this information on Monday, we’re already five days late. Plus, the COT report shows positioning in the futures currency markets, not spot FX. No doubt there’s a lot of overlap and the same players are probably trading both markets but a better indicator would be forex positioning.
Bet Against the Dumb Money
The ‘’Smart Money’’ can be in the markets for various reasons other than taking a directional bet. These include hedging by large multinationals, arbitrage or just old-fashioned market making by banks and high frequency firms. In my experience a better course of action is to bet against the ‘’Dumb Money’’ instead.
Who is the ‘’Dumb Money’’ in the forex market? In large part, retail traders are the proverbial ‘’Dumb Money’’. Before we go on, let’s see why betting against retail forex traders is a good strategy.
Cut Profits, Let Your Losers Run
A large US r…
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PipPoint avatar
PipPoint 3 June

yes very useful information

romakoksa avatar

interesting article!)

romakoksa avatar

а well done

iiivb avatar
iiivb 17 June

i am not that prone into the use of sentiment index for my trading but indeed was useful and insightful your explaination! thanks for the time and effort! wish u best of lucks!

mcquak avatar
mcquak 28 Sep.

If only I was reading it at contest time. You would definitely had my like. Strategy "going against crowd" has got rationale behind it, and with some additional filter added it can work. Good article.

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26/43
Ranking
I find it useful to look at the big picture from time to time. In technical analysis terms that usually means inspection of weekly and/or monthly charts. However, I rarely get to see analysis of "ultra-high" timeframe charts, so I decided to make few attempts of my own. Last week I analysed long term charts of the Euro. Here's the link in case you missed it: https://www.dukascopy.com/fxcomm/fx-article-contest/?A-Long-Term-Technical-Look&action=read&id=2626.
Today, I'll have a look at yearly and quarterly Yen charts. Both are covering the period from 1971 to 2015. Since platform's historical data for this pair is currently available from 1986 only, I had to fill in the missing data manually. I've drawn the candles using "Short Line" chart objects.
Yearly chart:
Quarterly chart:
Following the end of the Bretton Woods System (1971), during which the value of yen was fixed at 360 per dollar, the pair embarked on a long term downtrend which lasted until 1995 (although one might argue that it still lasts). After that, the pair entered a wedge-like sideways consolidation but it did broke below 1995 low in the 2011-2012 period. The low was set near 75 and the pair turned back up from ther…
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Airmike avatar
Airmike 12 Oct.

nice

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 13 Oct.

To clarify the second paragraph of the article: there is no historical data missing and Dukascopy is one of few brokers that I came across that provides the data going that far in the past and that's more than enough in most cases. But I think it would be awesome to have (daily) historical data from 1971 on all the majors and the respective crosses.

Vitalinka_Pavlenko avatar

Interesting post! Well done! Good luck!

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 31 Oct.

Thanks to all for your great comments!

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2/43
Ranking
In this article we’re going to look at both the technical setup as well as the fundamental themes that have been dictating the movements in the FX Market for the month of September and what’s going to drive the market forward in the coming month. The fact that we haven’t been able to see a rally in the equity market and a continuous decline in the US Dollar it tells us that something significant is happening, and that is a shift in the belief of monetary policy and its influences over the markets. We know that the monetary policy is one of the more proactive, impressive and constantly present mover in the market, it’s a theme that has been responsible for much of the moves that we had over the past month and year as well.
  • EUR/USD Fundamental&Technical Analysis

Without a doubt the major event of the month of September was the FED rate decision to hold interest rates near historically low level. However, despite no rate hike the Fed still remains one of the major Central Banks that still has a hawkish stance and the fact that they have stopped easing it’s reason enough to support the US Dollar at least in the short term. In comparison, the ECB is on the other side of the monetary …
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Daytrader21 avatar

Thank you all for the good words

Decebal avatar
Decebal 23 Oct.

Supetr article!

foreignexchange avatar

Great article, thanks Daytrader21

Olga18375 avatar
Olga18375 28 Oct.

Great, long, useful, interesting!! And this is all words for you) Because you have a good article)!

marius24 avatar
marius24 29 Oct.

as usual this article is well written and so far you predicted quite precisely Eur/usd

orto leave comments
6/58
Ranking
The entire financial system is going to be put at test in an no so distant future and since Greece has been on the front stage for such a long time I think it's time to address this issues and give you my own perspective on this matters and what would be the implications of an disruptive event like Grexit.
There are many times that nothing happens for a long period of time until all of a sudden everything happens at once and what is more important the markets are paying attention and we get extreme moves like we saw last week.
For traders who operates in the FX Market it's easy to understand that Greece debt problems was that they converted their debt from drachma to euro and then the currency rose from 80 cent to $1.60 against the US dollar. This effectively doubled their debt in real terms and now servicing that debt is almost impossible without a serious debt haircut.
  • Greece Referendum

Since I'm writing this article over the weekend I have no idea what the outcome of the referendum would be. So, you may be asking yourself what is this Greece Referendum all about, and in simple words is this: Greek people are being asked to vote on whether to accept/ or not current proposal fr…
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Lyubant avatar
Lyubant 22 July

great!

Agnessa26 avatar
Agnessa26 27 July

Good Job!

anna_n avatar
anna_n 27 July

very smart, very!

Metal_Mind avatar
Metal_Mind 27 July

This is a never ending story. It may be prolonged by the EU ,,unity sentiment,,  but in my opinion the result will probably  be an exit just one costing a few hundreds billion euros more. Great points made as always.

WallStreet6 avatar

Great article! Nice approach to the topic! Now we know that with Greece nothing is definite and there may be even more turnarounds eventhough the situation seems resolved.

orto leave comments
11/30
Ranking
Average true range (ATR) is a technical analysis volatility indicator originally developed by J. Welles Wilder, Jr. for commodities. The indicator does not provide an indication of price trend, simply the degree of price volatility
(by Wikipedia)

Introduction

In this article, we suggest that there is some correlation between the strength of price trend and Average True Range Indicators. We suspect that when that ATR goes down, then a price trend is likely to the end. And we describes that by 3 chapters in this paper.
  1. How To Calculate ATR? Describes a more details of ATR Indicator which was used for this research.
  2. Chart Pattern Analysis. This is an abstract explanation by standard chart patterns. Sections: Double Top, Triangle.
  3. Back Test Analysis. This is a concrete explanation by the 759679 orders of 5 currency pairs back-test result(2004 - 2014). Sections: Trading rule, Filters, EUR/USD(152304). GBP/USD(149175), USD/JPY(152798), USD/CHF(150498), USD/CAD(154904), Summary.
Chapter 1: How To Calculate ATR?
At first, you needs to calculate a true range. The range of a day's trading is a high minus low price. And the true range extends it to yesterday's closing price if it was outsi…
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VictoriaVika avatar

Nice analysis on. Great one for using in Forex markets!  Wait the next one exiting article. 

brunodanzer avatar

very good, this data is really very interesting

MobNaga avatar
MobNaga 18 Jan.

thanks,

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12/29
Ranking
► Introduction
This article is a continuation to my previous article: "Finding Key Support and Resistance Areas". In this article I will demonstrate how to find key support and resistance areas quickly and easily. We will use the same method explained in the previous article. I have applied the method on all the Major Currencies: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CHF and USD/CAD. I hope this article will help us understand the method better and observe how it can be used in live market charts.
Although the method is very technical, it does require some practice. I suggest that you first read again the previous article. Then, open the daily charts of the Majors and try to find the key support and resistance areas in them by yourself. Finally, you can compare your areas of support and resistance with my suggestions in this article. I think that this is a nice way to practice the method and gain the needed experience.
In each currency pair I will introduce three charts. The first chart is the daily chart. It is zoomed out to show at least one year of recent price movements. The second chart includes green v-shape and red upside-down-v-shape markings. They represent key support a
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geula4x avatar
geula4x 18 Jan.

@ilonalt Thank you :-) Best of luck to you too, and happy trading :-)

WallStreetBlog avatar

Thank you very much!!!

geula4x avatar
geula4x 25 Jan.

@WallStreetBlog My pleasure! :-) Happy trading this coming week :-)

jezz avatar
jezz 26 Jan.

Well written, good examples with a good following text. Really nice!

geula4x avatar
geula4x 27 Jan.

@jezz Thank you for your kind words! :-) Happy trading and good luck :-)

orto leave comments
11/29
Ranking

This article is a continuation and a reproduce of my recent blog post series were I was trying to give my own view on the major currency pairs for this year but I never got the change to finish it, so I though it may be a good idea to write an article were to cover this subject. Keep in mind this is just my personal opinion and my own plan for this year, it may or may not work out, flexibility is key, because things can change very fist in today's market.
  • USD/JPY Outlook
I'm going to give out my Fx Market Outlook for this year and I'm going to start with my favorite currency pair: Japanese Yen. I want to take the time to go through all the major currency pairs and give my personal outlook for 2014.
We know that currently the YEN pairs is all about Abenomics market policies. The "Abenomics effect" have had a huge impact to revive Japan's economy, strengthening consumer consumer spending. Although many have doubted the market policies of Japan's new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe are working very well: stock market is booming, real estate prices are rising, and retail sales are also rising. So far "Abenomics" has been a huge success, and this is very supportive for the current USD/JPY
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Schaolin avatar
Schaolin 22 Jan.

good job and good luck

Daytrader21 avatar

@Metal Mind thanks buddy I hope everything is good on your side.

Daytrader21 avatar

@Decebal & @Schaolin Thanks guys

Jignesh avatar
Jignesh 1 Feb.

Really good article. I love the USD/JPY Fractal. It scares me a bit how I've been looking at the same pairs with almost the exact same analysis! The only difference in my analysis is that I'm looking at the GBP/CAD rather than the GBP/USD. Good Job on the article and best wishes on your trades for 2014

Daytrader21 avatar

@jignesh thanks man, The thing with having a long term view is to be very flexible as this days central banks around the world tend to change and adjust their market policy to the new the economic threats, see for example recent emerging market crisis and how central banks reacted.

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