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4/32
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FX 2017 highlights
  • Euro was the strongest performer last year on dissipating geopolitical risk, strong economic growth and ECB tapering.Pound,
  • Aussie and Loonie also did well.
  • Dollar Index down by 10%. The reason for this big move is that other CBs will likely tighten following FED.
FX year to date
  • Sizeable movement for short span of time.
  • Dollar still is the punching bag.
  • Pound outperformance on Brexit optimism.
  • Aussie, Kiwi outperformed on better global economic prospects and rising commodity prices.
  • Yen is not as bearish as expected.
United Stated Economy

  • Annualized growth topped 3% in Q2 and Q3 but Q4 GDP growth missed the expectation to grow by 2.6%. However growth to return above 3% after tax rate cut effect.
  • Headline Inflation for December 2017 was 2.1% y/y, below the 2017 high of 2.7% hit in February. Core PCE came in at 1.5 % y/y in December.
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Verona888 avatar
Verona888 12 Mar.

Great job!)

Vlad73 avatar
Vlad73 16 Mar.

good luck

habiemile avatar
habiemile 20 Apr.

Interesting article!

pramuk avatar
pramuk 3 June

Nice

mydream avatar
mydream 8 June

good

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1/34
Ranking
FX performance Q3 highlights

  • Dollar slightly down in Q3, dollar/yen flat as Fed maintains rate hike path but other central banks catch up.
  • Euro rally pauses after reaching 2 and ½ years high in September. ECB is proceeding gently with tightening policy. Political risks re-emerge in Europe.
  • Pound has a good Q3 quarter after a surprise hawkish shift by Bank of England. Brexit talks gather some momentum but take its toll on UK economy.
  • Commodity rally (especially metals). Oil also has a positive quarter amid signs that market is finally re-balancing.
FX year to date

  • US dollar off its lows as one more rate hike expected.
  • Euro’s rally has stalled on some political setbacks and ECB’s dovish tapering. Rise in German yields.
  • The pound up versus the dollar, down versus the Euro.
  • Aussie did well despite correction in Oct 2017, Kiwi is flat versus dollar.

United Stated Economy

  • Q3 GDP growth came in at 3.0%.
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mursei avatar
mursei 25 Nov.

مقال رائعه

Annyrio avatar
Annyrio 30 Nov.

very interesting!

khalidamassi avatar

Good luck +1

Yonggi7 avatar
Yonggi7 12 Dec.

This article is well done!
And it is well presented!
Congratulations!!!!

thedoctor avatar
thedoctor 15 Dec.

well done

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2/59
Ranking
During the previous nine months, traders and pundits addressed their best attention to currencies such as the Pound and the Dollar. Brexit negotiations, Trump's interventions and the following expected or unexpected outcomes shall provide enough means for a tight covering of these two currencies in the months ahead. There's also the Yen, the Loonie and all its cousins, without forgetting emerging market currencies, such as the Peso and Turkish Lira… And the battle goes on!
UK Supreme court decision is steaming Pound's recent performance. The court ruled that Parliament approval is required to trigger the article 50 of the Lisbon treaty to allow UK quitting the EU. Judge’s voted 8-3 to reject government’s intentions to do it without parliamentary voting.
The currency surged against the Dollar and it seems to be poised for more gains. In the previous week, it has touched the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level, located at 1.2650, as shown in the following daily chart. Further upside strength shall be limited by the 1.28 area.
One of the biggest themes surrounding Brexit is financial services relocation. Several spots around Europe, such as Frankfurt, Paris, Madrid and Amsterdam are w…
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_shokolad_ avatar
_shokolad_ 24 Mar.

very interesting!))

SmErtNIK avatar
SmErtNIK 9 Apr.

довольно хорошо

ForexAlyoum avatar

Good Luck

ForexAlyoum avatar

Congratulations My Friend

fx_lmcap avatar
fx_lmcap 14 Apr.

Thank you ForexAlyoum!

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21/65
Ranking
Market got it all wrong AGAIN?
US elections were indeed one of a few occasions to earn a lot of money in a short period of time. Suprisingly for many, President Trump's words of this being Brexit times 10 or 50 turned out to be prophetic in every aspect - we had polls predicting false again, incredibly brutal moves on every market, and general upset of many investors, coinciding with nervous trades.
The reaction of the market was also not quite among confident ones - the market went back and forth as a result of the election. All the panic was erased by the President-elect speech, even as it was just words, suprisingly markets tended to signal they fully believe Mr Trump. We have reactions being overly pessimistic or enthusiastic all the time since then. From the movement shown above it is like switching from belief that it is end of the world to the belief that a new President will ba a savior for all the US, if not world...
Also the reaction on peso was crazy:
The price movements ranged even up to over 12% in a few days' time! Looks like people have forgotten that the President does not decide on everything alone, plus any tariffs or US regulations do not mean the end for Mexico.…
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rupesh1984 avatar
rupesh1984 18 Nov.

market love Putin and Trump :)

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 19 Nov.

Excellent work!

FXRabbit avatar
FXRabbit 23 Nov.

Let's see how the markets do in February of next year.

brilliant avatar
brilliant 24 Nov.

interesting nice article

hrustiashka avatar

Interesting

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35/56
Ranking
2016 US presidential general election is drawing to a close, and the results are broken moon becomes blurred. Regardless of the outcome, both will be on the US economic, political, social, and even influence the situation can not be ignored in the world. Here I will Trump previous two presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and to lead a simple analysis:
First we look at Donald Trump. The excited into the US Republican presidential candidate if the host, which stimulated into political strategies will undoubtedly become a strong power, but not running out of fuel and navigation of aircraft. Let us put aside their political intentions and the results of speculation, single view of their economic development ideas; the current economic development of inflation increased from 1% to 4% or even 5%, which will be brewing a great crisis. Let's look at their trade policies, China alone to impose a 45% tariff, which is tantamount to the Qing Dynasty 200 years ago, although there is no closed-door policy so extreme, but this is the first world's second largest economy if we really come this far I believe this is for the United States is definitely more harm than good. Effect followed the pat…
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GUANYINDIZI avatar

帮我的文章也来个赞呗…………^ ^

VictoriaVika avatar

Inspiring!

sonjatrader avatar

Interesting

TInna avatar
TInna 9 Nov.

ahah...good!

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31/70
Ranking

1. Fast-growing oil reserves
US commercial oil reserves have broken all records in the past year. The volume of oil storages in the United States reached a 80-year-old top-level of 490 million barrels. They then declined slightly in the middle of summer, but the end of the year and increased again in December, has already exceeded the figure of 490 million barrels per day. And now, the oil reserves of the United States remains the highest in the world.
2. All of increasing OPEC production
The cartel began to exceed its own quota in November 2014. Since then, OPEC production rose by more than 1 million barrels a day. Production growth was recorded mainly in Iraq (plus 900 thousand. - 1 million barrels per day) and Saudi Arabia (plus 600 thousand barrels per day). The December meeting of OPEC caused a new fall in oil prices. And with the return on Iranian oil market, OPEC production in 2016 will rise further.
3. Slow down the Chinese economy
China has been the main driver of growth in oil demand last decade. But in 2015, China's economy is cracking, GDP growth slowed down, and across Asia began to spread fears of global instability. And then on the stage appeared quietly India. In t…
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al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 29 Jan.

Useful content, nicely explained and very well written!

tdbatinkov avatar
tdbatinkov 31 Jan.

interesting conclusions

Alisitas avatar
Alisitas 9 Feb.

Интересно

Sharpshooter avatar

Жаль, что не на русском((

Alivio avatar
Alivio 25 Feb.

нужно учить английский пригодится)

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17/61
Ranking

Introduction

The euro is not going to give up, drawing strength in China, where the fall of the August business activity in the manufacturing sector to its lowest level for the past three years has been another reason for the sales of local shares. Shanghai composite in early trading fell by 5% and a probable intervention of the People's Bank lackeys helped stock indexes closed the session at a modest 1.7%. China's disease is likely to be picked up on European and US stock markets, expectations of subsidence which has allowed the "bulls" on EUR / USD came close for the thirteenth figure.

On the market are lively discussions about the status of the euro. Proponents of the theory of a reliable currency believe that investors for some time forgotten that regional monetary unit previously performs these functions. Now everything is back to normal. Indeed, the correlation between the EUR and JPY rose to its peak in 2007 amid a global rout in equity markets.
Rally of EUR / USD has been closely connected with the publication of data on business activity in Germany and in the United States, information on the reduction of unemployment in the euro area to the level of 10.9%, the minimum fo…
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SalviLeana avatar

well done

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19/43
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Introduction:In this Article we are going to analyse recent trends in the labour market for the US and see the most likely directions in which the Labour market will take over the coming years. Since the Global Financial Crisis in 2007/08 across the world, a rise in the unemployment rate has been noted in most western developed countries. In most places the Unemployment rate has stayed higher and there have been few signs of recovery in nearly every country.Problems:- High unemployment*chart from Federal reserve of St Louis' data bankAs seen in this chart above, the unemployment rate (Spread between Employment level and Civilian Labour force) has risen significantly since the recession and while is trending down, it is  doing so at an incredibly slow pace.For the economy, High Unemployment rates are bad. Quite simple to understand, when there are less people with jobs there is a lower level of demand in the economy. When this occurs people employed in sectors such as retail will lose jobs as companies require less staff to sustain the required demand levels.From here a downward demand spiral ensues as those unemployed add to the decrease in demand and so the process repeats itself.…
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AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 23 July

Would have loved to go into more detail, but I ran out of words allowed. Had to skip out some sections but I left in the most important parts. If you've any questions just ask.

Thanks.

AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 25 July

Presenting this article on Dukascopy community TV later today at 13:00 GMT hope you can be there.

AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 29 July

Last week we saw Inital claims print at 353K on estimates of 381K. Much better than expected in otherwords. The previous week was revised upwards by 2K. The upcoming week hold NFP and this will be very important so get ready.

AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 31 July

US ADP coming in tomorrow. Estimates are in range 115K to 130K.

Over the past few days there has been some employment data

Japan posted 4.3% unemployment rate
german u/e change was 7K
Spanish U/E rate - 24.6%

Still looking forward to NFP's

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39/100
Ranking
Will the country turned into the world market, then everyone will feel happy? Commented one of the main supporters of the American economist Milton Friedman's major markets. But the last few years, reality shows us quite the opposite. The market makes a lot of miserable people in the world. At the same time, precisely the state that became a helper when the market was unable to help themselves. So what happened in the U.S. and some European countries have recently become a real example. When the financial crisis, government is helping the company out of crisis. Markets that have glorified it actually makes a lot of people are harmed.Anti-Capitalism
- twps2 - pendulangforex sSebagian majority of Americans were
expressing their disappointment with the conduct rallies Occupying an
extremely provocative to occupy Wall Street or Wall Street (OWS). Wall
Street financial district is located in New York, where the world's
largest stock exchanges of New York Stock Exchange and a number of giant
financial institutions like Goldman Sachs Group and Morgan Stanley
office. A
few giant financial companies such as JP Morgan and Citigroup even
though it is no longer based in the region but are …
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hakala avatar
hakala 8 Dec.

:) That is one way. But what happens after???

ritesh avatar
ritesh 10 Dec.

Nice article. keep more coming +1

radjaforex avatar
radjaforex 14 Dec.

thanks all

doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 18 Dec.

I believe you may be right. We will see another kind of social, economical,political and financial system very soon +!

mielec avatar
mielec 19 Dec.

Agree...Every social thing and system fall after some time. people live so short that they must satisfy a manny
number of ideas

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56/73
Ranking
Before explode of financial crisis in 2008 Swiss franc gained compared to US dollar almost 20% in six months. Now his quotation rise even faster. Only from beginning of spring Swiss franc gained more than 20% compared to euro and US dollar and most of this move from beginning of the July. This situation forced Central Bank of Switzerland to intervene by throwing 50 billions francs on market and decreasing bank rates. This brought temporary abreact on markets. But why investors buy francs and take him on all-time highs? This is all cause by losing fate in euro and US dollar. Considered as safest harbor for money in insure times, franc can indicate incoming financial storm. Rising public depts, low efficiency of saving programs and no solid plan from western governments to solve this problems this was real cause of investors exodus from stock markets in recent weeks bringing down world indexes. Recent decision of Standards & Poor about downgrading the nation credit rating of United States from AAA to AA+ has been surprise for some of us but macroeconomic data clearly shows that global economy is slowing on both sides of Atlantic. United Kingdom probably will enter in second p…
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Quant-Trader avatar

+1 :) Crazy times.. fatal reality :>

ritesh avatar
ritesh 25 Aug.

Nice and timely article. Yes, it's all can be called in two words: Financial Terrorism. +1 for ya buddy

LinnuxFX avatar
LinnuxFX 25 Aug.

Well done with this article, good luck for the contest ... vote for mine here : http://www.dukascopy.com/fxcomm/fx-article-contest/?action=read&article=How-To-Trade-Harmonics-&id=13

ritesh avatar
ritesh 28 Aug.

check out my articles too at http://www.dukascopy.com/fxcomm/fx-article-contest/?action=blog&user=ritesh

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