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4/32
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FX 2017 highlights
  • Euro was the strongest performer last year on dissipating geopolitical risk, strong economic growth and ECB tapering.Pound,
  • Aussie and Loonie also did well.
  • Dollar Index down by 10%. The reason for this big move is that other CBs will likely tighten following FED.
FX year to date
  • Sizeable movement for short span of time.
  • Dollar still is the punching bag.
  • Pound outperformance on Brexit optimism.
  • Aussie, Kiwi outperformed on better global economic prospects and rising commodity prices.
  • Yen is not as bearish as expected.
United Stated Economy

  • Annualized growth topped 3% in Q2 and Q3 but Q4 GDP growth missed the expectation to grow by 2.6%. However growth to return above 3% after tax rate cut effect.
  • Headline Inflation for December 2017 was 2.1% y/y, below the 2017 high of 2.7% hit in February. Core PCE came in at 1.5 % y/y in December.
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Verona888 avatar
Verona888 12 Mar.

Great job!)

Vlad73 avatar
Vlad73 16 Mar.

good luck

habiemile avatar
habiemile 20 Apr.

Interesting article!

pramuk avatar
pramuk 3 June

Nice

mydream avatar
mydream 8 June

good

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1/34
Ranking
FX performance Q3 highlights

  • Dollar slightly down in Q3, dollar/yen flat as Fed maintains rate hike path but other central banks catch up.
  • Euro rally pauses after reaching 2 and ½ years high in September. ECB is proceeding gently with tightening policy. Political risks re-emerge in Europe.
  • Pound has a good Q3 quarter after a surprise hawkish shift by Bank of England. Brexit talks gather some momentum but take its toll on UK economy.
  • Commodity rally (especially metals). Oil also has a positive quarter amid signs that market is finally re-balancing.
FX year to date

  • US dollar off its lows as one more rate hike expected.
  • Euro’s rally has stalled on some political setbacks and ECB’s dovish tapering. Rise in German yields.
  • The pound up versus the dollar, down versus the Euro.
  • Aussie did well despite correction in Oct 2017, Kiwi is flat versus dollar.

United Stated Economy

  • Q3 GDP growth came in at 3.0%.
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mursei avatar
mursei 25 Nov.

مقال رائعه

Annyrio avatar
Annyrio 30 Nov.

very interesting!

khalidamassi avatar

Good luck +1

Yonggi7 avatar
Yonggi7 12 Dec.

This article is well done!
And it is well presented!
Congratulations!!!!

thedoctor avatar
thedoctor 15 Dec.

well done

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2/59
Ranking
During the previous nine months, traders and pundits addressed their best attention to currencies such as the Pound and the Dollar. Brexit negotiations, Trump's interventions and the following expected or unexpected outcomes shall provide enough means for a tight covering of these two currencies in the months ahead. There's also the Yen, the Loonie and all its cousins, without forgetting emerging market currencies, such as the Peso and Turkish Lira… And the battle goes on!
UK Supreme court decision is steaming Pound's recent performance. The court ruled that Parliament approval is required to trigger the article 50 of the Lisbon treaty to allow UK quitting the EU. Judge’s voted 8-3 to reject government’s intentions to do it without parliamentary voting.
The currency surged against the Dollar and it seems to be poised for more gains. In the previous week, it has touched the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level, located at 1.2650, as shown in the following daily chart. Further upside strength shall be limited by the 1.28 area.
One of the biggest themes surrounding Brexit is financial services relocation. Several spots around Europe, such as Frankfurt, Paris, Madrid and Amsterdam are w…
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_shokolad_ avatar
_shokolad_ 24 Mar.

very interesting!))

SmErtNIK avatar
SmErtNIK 9 Apr.

довольно хорошо

ForexAlyoum avatar

Good Luck

ForexAlyoum avatar

Congratulations My Friend

fx_lmcap avatar
fx_lmcap 14 Apr.

Thank you ForexAlyoum!

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27/58
Ranking

Introducing the Euro:
The Euro is the new 'single currency' of the European Monetary Union, adopted on January 1, 1999 by 11 Member States. Greece became the 12th Member state to adopt the Euro on January 1, 2001. On January 1, 2002, these 12 countries officially introduced the Euro banknotes and coins as legal tender. Slovenia became the 13th member state to adopt the Euro on January 1, 2007.
The Euro
Polls taken in the UK in the immediate aftermath of the introduction of the Euro on January 1st 2002, indicate that people in Great Britain are less than supportive of the new Euro currency in the first few months of its history.
One poll on January 5th had the following results:
If there were a referendum, would you vote to join the Euro?
[table] Yes 31% No 56% [tr] [td…
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Faster avatar
Faster 8 Oct.

i like it

Chaudhry77 avatar
Chaudhry77 12 Oct.

Excelent

OlgaBLR avatar
OlgaBLR 14 Oct.

great

klintons avatar
klintons 16 Oct.

Labi!

massimoscalas avatar

good!

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17/47
Ranking
The British consumer confidence has suffered its biggest drop in more than 20 years.
Post referendum sentiment unveils doubts over how the British economy will behave as non-EU member.
A survey by market research group GfK revealed a deep fall in the confidence among consumers from -1 to -9, as shown in the Infographic (source: www.gfk.com).
The details of Britain’s exit are murky, at best. There are a lot of uncertainties over the period where the Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty will be triggered.
Unless these questions are answered and a clear path forward emerges, the pound outlook will remain posed for the downside.
There appears to be little in the way of technical support to stop the currency from breaching several support areas in the months ahead.
Property prices in the UK and in London specifically, have come under pressure in the run-up to the EU referendum, as well as following it.
Dukascopy Research products [1] revived that:

June was the worst month in seven years period for the Britain’s builders since construction PMI entered a
contraction territory, (...) slipping to 46.0 points, from 51.2 (...)
Mark Carney highlighted (...) [that the] central bank would have to provide more[/that]
[/1]…
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Sveetlana avatar
Sveetlana 29 July

interesting...

voldemar avatar
voldemar 29 July

nice article

fxsurprise8 avatar

interesting views fella :)

Yulia10 avatar
Yulia10 31 July

good job

FXRabbit avatar
FXRabbit 26 Aug.

Very interesting article!

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17/53
Ranking
The announcement
The Bank of England has decided to change it’s communication form and has squeezed in many releases into one announcement starting this month. The previous form of communicating was criticized for being inconsistent as information was divided into many releases across two weeks interval.
For the first time under the new order information was provided on the 6th of August. The Monetary Policy Committee vote took place as well as the minutes report, both on one day. The Monetary Policy Committee has voted against a rate hike with the votes divided 1 to 8, with 1 for and 8 against.
The consensus was at 2 to 9 with Ian McCafferty and Martin Weale voting for and possibly a third person as well. This outcome was disappointing for the market. The minutes have shown that there is a divide when it comes to the time of starting to cut down on the QE program. Additionally the inflation report was provided. The forecasts concerning inflation rate have been lowered for the rest of the year. The 2015 forecast has been lowered from 0.6% to 0.3%. It has also been mentioned that the downward pressures from low energy prices may persist until mid 2016. Howoever, by that time inflat…
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al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 29 Aug.

Useful information, very well explained and written. Nice job!

WallStreet6 avatar

Thanks:)

Olga18375 avatar
Olga18375 29 Aug.

Interesting post! Good job)

foreignexchange avatar

great

Margoshka avatar
Margoshka 30 Aug.

))yes!great

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13/58
Ranking
I have decided to write a follow up to my previous article about GBP due to the fact that last week there was important news coming from the UK which gives insight into the upcoming monetary policy of the Bank of England.
The week in review
On the 14th of July we saw the release of the Consumer Price Index for June which disappointed as it retreated to 0.0% YoY and MoM from 0.1% growth in May. Although the reading was better than in April which saw a drop of -0.1% which was the lowest level in over 50 years, the retreat comes in as a hindrance to the plan of the BoE of embarking on a rate hike schedule. The core CPI, which measures price changes among energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, has slowed to0.8% from 0.9% in May.
These data releases gave a bearish perspective for the GBP. However, afterwards the governor of Bank of England MarkCarney said in his statement that the BoE expects inflation to pick up later this year when the effects of lower oil and food prices subside. Thus, the time for interest rate hikes, which are going to be gradual, is coming closer, however he did not specify when. He said, "the point at which interest rates may begin to rise is moving closer with the p…
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Milian avatar
Milian 28 July

great)))

pipx avatar
pipx 28 July

I was sure the cable would hit 1.6 and went long this month in the trader contest boy was I wrong :-) In August I believe it will. Lets wait and see

WallStreet6 avatar

Thanks:) Yes, I think it may continue to appreciate in August and maybe even hit the 1.60 level. Especially that today's GDP came on target. But later on I think it will go the other way:)

sarah_gio avatar
sarah_gio 29 July

+1

Margoshka avatar
Margoshka 30 July

very interesting

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24/58
Ranking
United Kingdom economy has been struggling ever since the financial crisis was triggered there with the bank run on Northern Rock in 2008. The Bank of England had to adjust to an expansive monetary policy in order to avoid further slowdown of the economy. It has introduced the quantitative easing program in 2009 and since March 2009 the interest rates have been at it’s historic record low of 0.5%. On the 9th of July 2015 the Bank of England has kept interest rates and asset purchasing program unchanged at 0.5% and 375 billion pounds respectively. Analysts predict that the earliest date for a rate hike could be August 2016.
GBP/USD
Last week we saw the GBP/EUR drop by 0.98% (biggest weekly drop since June 5th) and the GBP/USD by 0.4% (3rd consecutive weekly drop). But more importantly last week the GBP/USD has broken the upward trend line on which it embarked on at the beginning of April and is currently below it.
BONDS
Last week 10 year UK bonds prices depreciated (yields rose by 0.08 percentage points to 2.08%) amid less demand for safe haven assets due to the improvement in negotiation talks between Greece and it’s creditors. Lower demand was also due to the fact, that the planne…
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ivanbgd avatar
ivanbgd 28 July

nice

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 28 July

Useful information and very well written. Great article!

Milian avatar
Milian 28 July

good work!))

piter44 avatar
piter44 29 July

superb +1

Margoshka avatar
Margoshka 30 July

nice

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8/51
Ranking
____________________________________________________________________________________Throughout this I will try to answer the question that is really troubling everyone in the financial world, and that is whether or not the worldwide economy has finally stopped worsening and will start to rise again.I'll start by showing charts of global Equity indices now I'm sure I don't need to explain how these can be used as barometers for the health of the economy these are derived from. Because of this these are a good place to start as it "should" show how different regions are performing relative to others.S&P500 5yr chart - Thomson ReutersIBEX 35 5yr Chart - Thomson ReutersDAX 30 5yr - Thomson ReutersShanghai Composite 5yr - Thomson ReutersIt is clear from these 4 selected regions that there are 2 clear winners and 2 clear losers; US and Western Europe (Germany) are performing very well where as China and Spain aren't doing very well at all.Now lets see if these values are fair or should they be very different. I will start with the housing industry. a section of the economy that many people believe to be the most important indicator for growth and health of the economy. __________________…
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scramble avatar
scramble 14 Feb.

nice article as always, and interesting topic! when looking at these numbers always a question come to my mind: why euro is still so much stronger than usd? i really can't find any kind of fundamental reason allowing such a difference (more than 30%). :)

doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 18 Feb.

You seem to be one of the most complex traders in this community and I respect that. As fr the Bottom of the Economy, I think this is just the beginning, because the stimulus measures from the central banks corraborated with the enormous international debts of the strongest economies(most of them have a debt higher than 80% of GDP) will generate even tighter budget cuts and tax increases like we are able to see in the US these months. One thing is certain : Global Economy will never be the same as before. The real question is: What is it evolving into?... What will be the alternative?...

AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 18 Feb.

Thank you for your kind words :)

And yes, the Global economy has shifted into something completely different thing which not even the head of Goldman knows will look like for another 10 years. The large debt is of course a worry and should not be underestimated like it is from some (krugman) and it will make growth very hard for the G20 nations over the coming decade.

Frankly I feel like we've past a point of no-return with the global economy and while it may improve short term the longer term picture isn't so rosy.

scramble avatar
scramble 19 Feb.

i agree. i will be expecting a clear change during this year between the 2nd and the 3rd quarter. definetly things can't keep going like this forever..... i hope! :) hey, noticed you ready with some live webinars! that will be very interesting :)

OneGoodTrade avatar

It's more like an answer then a question ... and I agree with it. +1 for a good article and A+ for your original idea.

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