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Fundamentals still supportive!
Lira versus Yen did not go quite the way I had expected for November, mainly due to suprise US elections outcome. As it was not a fundamental reason for TRY or JPY, the general reaction just occured later - during the current week. 7th and 8th of december were when both lines I sketched previous month (resistance and downtrend) were succefully broken. I believed more and more that it had to happen as the situation evolved. There were no real fundamentally bad news from Turkey, except the President being against Central Bank's decisions. Finally, the negative terrorism and coup-like streak of news from Turkey seem to have ceased for a while, or even for a longer time.
We had Current Account deficit tightening to -1.68B (11 Nov), Budget Balance ameliorating to -0.1B (15 Nov, from -16.9B), most of rates in Turkey hiked on 24 Nov together with steady Manufacturing Confidence (103.7 24 Nov) and Capacity Utilization (staying 76.4% 24 Nov). On 29 Nov we have seen foreign arrivals decline stopped a little (-25.8% from -32.84%) signalling maybe a start of reversal of tourism stagnation. Trade balance also improved (-4.16B from -4.36B, 30 Nov), exports rose to …
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ak10 avatar
ak10 10 Dic

Useful knowledge for trading.

Beto avatar
Beto 13 Dic

Very technical and fundamental bias, really good job.
Only I think you could put at the end a very short conclusion about your theory to make it easy to all that people how do not like more even the technical analysis.
Best regards.

arjaq avatar
arjaq 13 Dic

Beto  , what exactly do you mean? TRYJPY is not a very technical (still technicals do work here to a certain extent) pair in general, it moves basically driven by fundamentals or risk sentiment. What should a conclusion consist of here?

VictoriaVika avatar

Good luck in article contest, nice job.

k_morocco avatar

great analysis , liked your fundamental point of view

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Sparked by a most interesting conversation in oneof webinars recently, I decided to dedicate some time in explaining why, when
trading Emerging market (EM) FX, you should take more care and most certainly take somewhat of a different approach. Via dukascopy there is plenty of opportunity to gain exposure to the EM world, they offer CCY's such as MXN,
PLN, RUB, TRY and ZAR. While each have their own varying features, a different approach needs to be considered.
Headline Risk:

This can broadly be considered as unexpectedrisks, and yes these occur in G7 majors, but are much more prevalent in
the EM world due the rapid expansion of their society - these can range from political risks to rapid changes in the structure of the economy. But furthermore we know that due the lower liquidity seen in these pairs that small
shocks can result in large price changes and so if one is to trade EM's they need to be familiar with the calendar of macro indicators which is somewhat harder to come by than those for G7 nations.
Undoubtedly, fundamentals and money flows aremore impo…
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alifari avatar
alifari 22 Oct

This is undoubtedly the best article this month.......... and something new......

Airmike avatar
Airmike 23 Oct

you are right. did you mention this to DFC team. for example in one of the webinars you did. because i think this is damaging thing. I was thinking about one article which will be something like statistical reaserch of spaming at the contest. :) . but after my experience with my first two articles , those things are not "valuable" enough .. Now I concentrate only to articles about trading, but it seems that It is to late post article during the contest. It same as on fundamental contest. Doesnt matter if you are correct at predictions. you have to be first who put analysis, even if analysis a

Airmike avatar
Airmike 23 Oct

btw: If you want , check my article and let me know your opinion.

northernwave avatar

thanks for sharing your hard earned knowledge.

Darius avatar
Darius 30 Oct

I like it. Good luck

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