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RBA Interest Rate Decision
In the meeting held on 5th September the RBA kept the interest rates unchanged at 1.5 % but gave much more positive indications about growth in economy. As per recent economic data inflation is expected to rise gradually, business investments is picking up, employment growth has become stronger, though labor hours remains week. The various forward-looking indicators point to continued growth in employment over the period ahead. Economic growth is still expected to increase gradually over the next couple of years to a little above 3%.
In recent meeting held on 1st August RBA kept interest rates unchanged but gave much more positive indications about growth in economy. Governor Lowe said, business investments have picked up, employment growth has become stronger, though Wage growth remains low, however, and this is likely to continue for a while yet. Inflation is expected to increase gradually as the economy strengthens. The various forward-looking indicators point to continued growth in employment over the period ahead. He said, economic growth is still expected to increase gradually over the next couple of years to above 3%.
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RahmanSL avatar
RahmanSL 13 Sep.

wow...pretty concise fundamental analysis for the Aussie Dollar : )

FXRabbit avatar
FXRabbit 15 Sep.

Good article as always!

anvifx avatar
anvifx 23 Sep.

nice article

Natalia_Kisenko avatar

Great article!

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USA Economic Data
The ISM Manufacturing PMI for the United States is likely to come at 55.1 from 54.9 a month back as we can see a steady growth in new orders, employment and inventories which offset the slower growth in production. In April 2017 the orders for the durable goods and other household items rose to touch a new three years high.I am expecting the positive sentiments prevalent in United States to have grown stronger in recent days after the victory ofNew US President Mr. Donald Trump which effectively means the United States ISM Manufacturing PMI will keep on rising for next couple of months.
Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index of the United states is expected to come at 58.5 which will mark the straight 15th month of expansion after showing a below 50 reading in the month of February 2016. The five constituent indices Production (0.25), New Orders (0.35), Order Backlog (0.15), Employment (0.10), and Supplier Deliveries (0.15) are showing good growth in recent months led by increase in New Orders for manufacturing units providing parts heavy industries and automobile sector. This month the Employment index is expected to contribute strongly as the labor market is tight t…
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Sanju777 avatar
Sanju777 23 Aug.

Interesting article

AngleRMS avatar
AngleRMS 24 Aug.

good article

Natalia_Kisenko avatar

Well done!

JuliannaS avatar
JuliannaS 31 Aug.

Useful for next predictions

FXRabbit avatar
FXRabbit 1 Sep.

Very good article!

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The interconnectedness between trade balance, interest rates and foreign exchange rates of national currencies is discussed. The case for gold standard and free market interest rates is outlined. The reasoning behind the introduction of free-floating exchange rates is presented. The inherent flaws of current system are exposed; the indispensable conditions for balanced trade and fair exchange rates are formulated.
By historical standards the currently existing global system of free-floating fiat currencies is fairly new – the last tie of US dollar with gold was severed in August 1971. Although this drastic step was initially offered to the American public as a temporary measure, the course of action had never been reversed. The immediate fallout, albeit unnoticed by public, had profound effect on the global economy – gold has been supplanted by fiat currency, namely US dollar, as clearing tool of international trade. Somewhat flawed, but overall rather robust, system that kept multilateral international trade in check was insidiously superseded by a system inherently unstable and, as history demonstrated, bereft of necessary ability to balance international trade. Trade …
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Elani avatar
Elani 24 Nov.

Excellently written article!

VictoriaVika avatar

Great one, well done! Good luck with it :)

Marenno avatar
Marenno 25 Nov.


fxigor avatar
fxigor 18 Dec.

I am glad when I can learn more about fundamental analysis. Nice Back-feed loop resulting from trade deficit Figure.

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The highly anticipated FED tapering over last months is taking shape with economic data, markets will prepare for the same. The
economic data which indicates economic health is analysed below. Strong numbers from various economic indicators would be deciding factor for FED’s Taper/ No Taper.
The key, critical economic indicators for analysis of any country economic health are
GDP growth rate
Unemployment rate
Inflation rate
The supporting economic indicators to boost further confidence in country economy health are
Current Trade Balance
Retail Sales
New home sale.
FED’s purchase program of USD 85 million per month has to end in coming months, it is interesting to make a note how it will come to end, either reducing pace or at one go both the possibilities are possible.
We will take a look at all the above key as well as supporting indicators to analyse the current situation of US economy.
GDP Growth Rate

GDP growth rate is on rise since beginning of year 2013, it has rose from 0.1 to 3.6% indicating a strong recovery is on the way, next
couple of months it should stabilize.
Unemployment Rate
Unemployment Rate is decreasing on steady basis since Jan 2013, strong jobs market is sig…
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Daytrader21 avatar

I have also wrote an article about the tapering odds but I'm speaking from another point of view in my own article, however your perspective is very solid, nice job

alifari avatar
alifari 11 Dec.

Nice article, well done +

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Is the application of micro and macro economic theory in markets in order to predict future trends. The main fundamental forces drive the currency markets._____________________________________________________________________________Trade Balance (Balance of Trade in Goods):The Trade Balance is an indicator of the difference between exports and imports of goods from one country. A positive trade balance or a surplus occurs when a country's exports exceed imports. A negative balance of trade, or a deficit, occurs when more goods are imported than exported.The Trade Balance and any changes in exports and imports are closely followed by foreign exchange markets, as it is an important indicator of foreign exchange trends. Measurements of imports and exports are important economic indicators of global economic activity. Trends in export activity not only reflect the competitive position of the country in question, but also the strength of economic activity abroad. Trends in import activity reflect the strength of national economic activity. A country with a significant deficit of the trade balance will normally have a weaker currency because there will be a continuous commercial sale of …
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dada123 avatar
dada123 27 June

Excellent material :-)

Faster avatar
Faster 28 June


Pisakjanos avatar
Pisakjanos 28 June

Good work. Just keep it this way.

Decebal avatar
Decebal 30 June

good work!

WallStreetBlog avatar

Thank you very much!!!

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