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32/52
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Principles of success
I think many of traders are too much restricted with fundamental and technical analysis. As a trader, most challenging business in the world, one has to educate himself in strategic and tactful leadership. I would like to share one of the middle age principles that established by samurai, Miyamoto Musashi who lived over 350 years ago in 1643. Later the book was adopted to business language by Donal G. Krause His approach and strategies was studied effectively by western and modern Japanese competitive businesses. These tactics are based on seven principles of competitive success where it is applicable to any business including forex trading.
These principles are:

1. Ordered Flexibility

The ideal of ordered flexibility is summed up in the concept of “positioning without position”. It means basically, preparation, assessment and observation of current condition and readiness to act and respond easily to changing environment. In forex, we have to do our homework properly before the trade execution.
2. Execution
Must be well prepared for the windows of opportunities with patience, order and flexibility. Take the moment of advantage. In forex, it basically me…
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valter avatar
valter 19 Mar.

отличная работа!

brilliant avatar
brilliant 24 Mar.

success also is a bless from God

vugarali avatar
vugarali 25 Mar.

nice information

ForexAlyoum avatar

Good Luck

Beto avatar
Beto 28 Mar.

To get success involves too many areas such as psychological, discipline, money management, patience.
Good information.

orto leave comments
1/53
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By just knowing how smart money operate in the market you can gain an edge in the financial markets and no matter if you're a profitable trader or not, knowing the concept that I'm about to share with you in this article can give you more insights into the structure of the FX market.
The number one reason why you would want to know how smart money operate in the market is the ability to proper time the market. Timing the market is one of the greatest challenge that any trader can have. The capability to spot market turning points before they happen can yield higher risk-reward ratio. By having the ability to enter a trade as close as possible to the market turning point, you enjoy 3 major benefits:
  1. Low Risk: By entering as close as possible to the market turning price you can use small SL order, which in turns allows higher position size which will yield more profits but at the same time minimizing the losses.
  2. High Reward: Entering as close as possible to the market turning price will give you the possibility to catch the majority of the move.
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WallStreet6 avatar

Very interesting article! and good point with the DXY

marius24 avatar
marius24 26 Aug.

thank you for giving me a new idea in trading:)). Quite informative this article and yap the timing is everything in this risky environment.

Berkeley avatar
Berkeley 26 Aug.

good work as ever ;)

Daytrader21 avatar

marius24 Yes you're right if we can figure out how to perfectly time the market we as traders can be far ahead.

Daytrader21 avatar

Berkeley Thanks.

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17/76
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People say there is nothing new under the sun, that even the new trends in fashion are just a mirror image of previous fashion trends. Basically, what I get from that is that core concepts usually last.
When I look at the forex market, I realize even though there has been an evolution in trading and trading tools, the market itself has not really changed. The markets represent human psychology on the charts (Elliot wave theory), and people do not really change. Human beings are repetitive in nature, so human reactions have patterns and can be predicted. If we make this assumption, then we can say price patterns or market reactions which were profitable in the past stand a chance of also being profitable in the future.
Based on this, I am going back to the “roots”, I am diving into old-school analysis of the markets; which was purely technical. If it was possible for traders to make money back then, when they had to work with raw data and place calls to make their trades, then it is very possible for such markets tools to make money in the present day and age.
I am going to be sticking to the 3Ts: Technical analysis, Trend and Timing.
Technical Analysis
All analysis will be done u…
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Margoshka avatar
Margoshka 12 June

good work)thanks

Natalia_Kisenko avatar

very useful article!

CD1V1 avatar
CD1V1 14 June

good work

KATRIN_90 avatar
KATRIN_90 19 June

good work))

Lyubant avatar
Lyubant 21 June

great!

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3/38
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There are many structural reasons that support a dollar bullish trend in the coming years but like anything else timing is the key.
Currently the outstanding US Dollar short positions are enormously and usually when everyone is on the same side of the boat the market goes in the opposite direction. But this current bearish trend will not reverse just because there will be a mythical big buy position that will reverse the trend.
A bearish trend will reverse when all the sellers who wanted to sell are in the market and there is no one left to sell. The same is the case with a bullish trend which will not reverse because some huge sell will come in the market but because there are no more buyers to lift the market.
So in our case it will not be a bullish dollar trend because some positive reasons. It will be the outstanding US Dollar short positions which are going to create the bullish trend least expected. It will be the biggest squeeze of our lifetime and when this short position will feel the pain of market going against them they will fuel the market new trend as they will be forced to buy back their shorts, which in turns will add more power to the new bullish trend.
The his
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Jignesh avatar
Jignesh 22 May

Well written Daytrader21 , although my view calls for a weaker USD.  Take a look at the weekly DXY Chart, there is a good case for a bearish triangle from 2008,  Most likely making a low sometime this year around 75, bullish 2015 inline with your analysis.  But would probably only retrace to current levels before turning lower to breakout.  Let me know what you think.

Daytrader21 avatar

Jignesh I move towards 75 DXY is quite a dramatic move and we really need a strong catalyst for that to happen, which at this point I just can't see it. The return of fx volatility will be a strong sign for a directional change in the dollar, so until that happen I see further consolidation. We need a really strong catalyst to break from current low volatility and consolidation zone and this can't happen in isolation, we need to look at credit markets and equity markets as well. Time will tell how it will develop I only hope I'm smart enough to see when I'm wrong:). Thx

doctortyby avatar

Just one article from you this month my friend? I want to see more useful info from you :D

Daytrader21 avatar

doctortyby Well, unfortunately I only have time for 1 article/month and I'm also running out of subjects:) so I'm not even sure I'll have something to write for the next month. I hope at least you enjoyed this one:)

doctortyby avatar

A good subject can be the ECB future Monetary Policy ;) ... I always enjoy your articles

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13/46
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I felt the need to cover this subject as well before the year end, because in my humble opinion it will be the dominant market driven theme of 2014, and if you're an investor or an active trader you want to make sure you understand the market implications of such a big event, because it will dictate the market tone for the next year. Even if you're only a technical analyst trader there is no way you haven't heard at least one time about "Taper", so have you ever asked yourself what does it mean and how it will affect your trading operations? The sole purpose of this article will be to answer precisely to that question.
The word tapering in financial terms is increasingly being used to refer to the anticipated reduction of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing(QE), or bond buying program. The current Federal Reserve quantitative easing (QE3) accounts for purchases amounting to $85 billion in Treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) per month, with the main scope lower interest rates and therefore bolster growth.
  • What is Quantitative Easing?
Since the global financial crisis of 2007–2008 the FED has begin using new type of market policy like Quantitative Easing to try to
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Daytrader21 avatar

Update: For the December meeting the market expectation for a taper where considerable low, however FED is shocking the market again with a taper decision. If you try to make a reasoning of WHY now tapering? my take is that this was last appearance for Bernanke and his last change to make a good impression in front of the public, and it was also a good strategy for the Fed because if something would have gone terribly wrong, Yellen the New Chairman could have promise that she will do changes and fix the problem, and this would certainly send confidence signals to market participants (2)

Daytrader21 avatar

Update: As expected market reaction was in both direction and we saw a big whipsaw as volatility was very high during the news release and also during the Q&A session. Although Fed decided to do a small tapering and only cutting back their stimulus programs by a minor 10B, Ben Bernanke has said during the press conference that any further cut in QE is data depending and "end of QE certainly won't be at mid-year" suggesting that it will take longer before they will end the QE programme for good. And this can easily extend through the whole 2014 year and beyond, but that remains to be seen.(3)

Metal_Mind avatar
Metal_Mind 19 Dec.

Thanks bro.....I owe my 210 pips on gbp /jpy..hope to get 2000 pips until i closed it ... to your article. I sow the third picture of what was the reaction of no tapering on euro usd,,,,whatch it on gbp usd and correlated with gbpjpy because beiing a cross is more volatile and i kinda anticipated this move. Thanks again.

FXdream avatar
FXdream 20 Dec.

nice++++

ilonalt avatar
ilonalt 26 Dec.

well done!

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12/40
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In this presentation I would like to show one simple way to recognize profitable trades, and eventually avoid some mistakes done because of lack in patience and/or wrong beliefs. I will try to make it as much clean as possible so to be used and or tested by anyone who reads. Of course, a base knowledge about price behavior and price action between supply/demand areas is much welcome. Timeframe The strategy is developed in a combo of H4 and M15. Reading price fluctuations in H4 is quite comfortable, and you are not required to stay glued on the monitor the whole day/night. Furthermore, opportunities become great when reading them in the 15minutes to reduce the risk. Indicator I am using the RVI indicator. In the image below you see how to apply it to a Jforex chart: The indicator measures the energy (vigor) of a move (R.V.I. = Relative Vigor Index) by comparing the close price with open, relatively to its range. Basically, what you expect is the indicator to rise in a bullish trend because the closing of a candle is higher than the opening and opposite in bearish trends. So when the energy (vigor) starts to decrease, could be signaling an imminent shift in trend, which actually is …
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SpecialFX avatar

Forgot to add something, with leading indicators you are trying to predict what the price will do next, with lagging indicators you are reacting to what the price is doing now, or did a while ago. Both approaches can be correct or wrong, but I prefer to react because it's factual, while predicting has a much higher degree of uncertainty. Besides, I suck at predictions anyway :)

scramble avatar
scramble 1 Apr.

eh, we could just write a whole book about this matter, find some solutions, and then the following week some will have different views in another whole book. and both being true! :D in my opinion there is no way to elaborate past data in order to predict future events! what we can do, whatever strategy we use, is just calculate statisctics till last closed candle, and go for the more probable future develop. but this is already an huge cut in % of success! and here comes the environment for money management :)

scramble avatar
scramble 1 Apr.

actually as mentioned in the article, i'm developing a much difficult step to expose this "strategy" to worst cases and understand what happens. a kind of "crash test" which is really showing me some important arrangements. so still lot of work, but i like the way it's growing :) hopefully i'll be ready for next week.

doctortyby avatar

@ Special Fx, very interesting comment regarding Lagging and Leading indicators...

doctortyby avatar

@ Scramble prepare for the worst and you'll get the best of it :)

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16/43
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"When you enter the markets, you are going into a competitive field in which your evaluations and opinions will be matched against some of the sharpest and toughest minds in the business. You are in a highly specialized industry - under the intense study by men whose economic survival depends on their best judgement. You will certainly be exposed to advise, suggestions, and offers of help from all sides. Unless you are able to develop some market philosophy of your own, you will not be able to tell the good from the bad, the sound from the unsound." – John MageeIf you have ever listened to the above quote, you may have known that there is no perfect method to make money in this business, no Holy Grail, no money-printing machine method... But we certainly have an edge if we see at what big guys see. It is clear that when you have a very big amount of money to invest, you are not likely to watch for complex technical system. You would rather plan for risk events and trade from an economist's perspective. Thus, the more simple your technical system is, the more effective and less time-consuming your decision making process would be.In this article, I will guide you through how to setu…
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auto1 avatar
auto1 13 Dec.

Would you you please explain as to to what is the purpose /usage of high/low/close of same ma? Nice article,

thanh_trang167 avatar

Hi, the purpose of applying SMA with the same time period on high/low/close of prices is to know when we get into the support/resistance zone better. It is a zone; therefore, doing so will erase in your mind the idea that support/resistance is just a single price.

Likerty avatar
Likerty 14 Dec.

Interesting approach:))

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8/68
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   Greetings dear traders. This is the first article from April. It will contain, as usual, the Monthly view Analysis (on the Daily charts) for the major pairs: Eur/Usd, Usd/Chf, Gbp/Usd, Aud/Usd, Usd/Jpy, Usd/Cad and Nzd/Usd. I will update the analysis in the comments section with the weekly view analysis on the 4 hours charts for the same pairs after the article will be approved.   This article will also contain an explanation for the currency correlations for some of the Major Pairs and Cross pairs that most traders use in their trading plan.   * I) Currencies Correlations.    When you are following the correlation between two Major/Cross currency pairs, you also have to keep into your attention the third hedging pair, which should move side-ways into a congestion area on the medium and long term. For example: if we analyse Eur/Usd and Usd/Chf (negative correlation), than we also have to keep an eye on Eur/Chf.    Another important factor to take into consideration when you are analysing currency correlations is the vollatility of the pairs. For example: Eur/Usd and Usd/Chf have both a high volatility with a similar value. The third hedging pair, Eur/Chf has a very low volatilit…
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kkforex avatar
kkforex 19 Apr.

Thanks nice info 1+

ELENA_M avatar
ELENA_M 19 Apr.

good new page from your textbook :)

doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 22 Apr.

1)Eur/Usd-Daily chart (23.04 Update)- Bullish probability - KEY LEVELS to watch >> 1.321 (1st level Key-Level, the last Resistence, confluence with the 50 DMA)<<, >> 1.326 (2nd level Key-Level, confluence between the Main Monthly Pivot and the Main Downtrend dynamic Resistence Trendline, and Secondary Uptrend dynamic Trendline/ now Resistence)<<, >> 1.340 (next resistence)<<, >> 1.350 (2nd Level Key Level, confluence between the Monthly R1 Pivot, the 200 DMA dynamic resistence and the Resistence from February)<<, >> 1.377 (Monthly R2 Pivot)<<

doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 22 Apr.

1)Eur/Usd-Daily chart (23.04 Update)- Bearish probability - KEY LEVELS to watch >> 1.316 (1st level Key-Level, confluence between the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the 30 DMA support)<<, >> 1.312 (100 DMA)<<, >> 1.306-1.304 area (2nd level Key Area, confluence between the Monthly S1 Pivot, 50% Fibonacci Retracement and the Support of the congestion area from the last 2 weeks)<<, >> 1.300-1.297 (2nd level Key-Level, Hystorical level, support from 15th of March and 16th of February, and the 38.2 Fibonacci Retracement)<<, >> 1.275-1.270 (Monthly S2 Pivot and the support from 16th of January)<<

DEMO2ibHhM avatar
DEMO2ibHhM 25 Apr.

very good ideas..
have happy month of you ..good luck

orto leave comments
35/53
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Greetings dear Dukascopy Community. Last week I was caught in an offline project and I was not able to update my weekly analysis for the major pair. I appologize for that. This week I will post the Weekly view Analysis for the 4 Hours Time Based charts and the 35/20 pips Constant Range Bars charts in this article and I will also update the Monthly View Analysis from Friday, conducted on the Daily Charts for the Major Pairs.(in the comments section).Before We start our analysis You should read my article from last month : Key-levels Explained for Range Bars+weekly Analysis for Major Pairs.(to help You understand better the analysis that We will conduct in this article)In any moment given, We have to remember always that no matter what probability we can calculate for the future movement of the price, there is also a chance that the price action could turn against the higher probability. That is why I consider that the probability is always 50-50% for the price to go bullish or bearish. It can only be safe to be prepared always for the both scenarios. If You toss a coin 10 times and You get heads 8 times, and tails 2 times, for the 11th roll, the probability will be 50-50%, unless th…
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doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 20 Mar.

7) Nzd/Usd - Weekly View - 19-23rd of March - 4 hours Chart in analogy with 35 Pips Range Bars Charts:Bullish Probability,if the price will find support at 0.822-0.820 Area(Key confluence between Monthly S1 Pivot, Weekly Main Pivot, and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, and 50 and 30 SMAs cross), it will rise to 0.830-0.831 area (Key confluence between 200SMA and 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement), and move further to 0.834 (Key level, confluence between Monthly Main Pivot and Weekly R1 Pivot). The next resistence could be 0.841(Weekly R2 Pivot)

doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 20 Mar.

7) Nzd/Usd - Weekly View - 19-23rd of March - 4 hours Chart in analogy with 35 Pips Range Bars Charts:Bearish Probability,if the price breaks and confirms the breakout of 0.822-0.820 Key Area(confluence between 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement, Monthly S1 Pivot, Weekly Main Pivot and 30 and 50 SMAs cross),it could fall further to reach first 0.812(Weekly S1 Pivot, key confluence with the Downtrend Line, which is acting now as Dynamic support), and then 0.808(Monthly S2 Pivot and support)and 0.798-0.796 area (Monthly S3 Pivot and Weekly S2 Pivot confluence)

doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 20 Mar.

6) Usd/Cad - Weekly View - 19-23rd of March - 4 hours Chart in analogy with 20 Pips Range Bars Charts:Bullish Probability, if the price will find support around 0.988(Weekly S1 Pivot), and it will turn bullish above 0.991-0.993 Key area (Key confluence between Monthly Main Pivot , Weekly Main Pivot, and 30 and furture confluence with 100 SMA), it will move upside to 0.995(Weekly R1 Pivot, key confluence with 200 SMA on the 4 Hours chart), and continue further upside to reach 0.998(Weekly S2 Pivot) and finally 1.001(confluence between Monthly R1 Pivot and Weekly R3 Pivot)

doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 20 Mar.

6) Usd/Cad - Weekly View - 19-23rd of March - 4 hours Chart in analogy with 20 Pips Range Bars Charts:Bearish Probability, under 0.988(Weekly S1 Pivot), price could fall to reach first 0.984 (Weekly S2 Pivot) and then continue sideways for a few days between 0.984-0.988. There is a stronger bearish probability to break the Weekly S2 Pivot and reach the 0.980 area (Monthly S1 Pivot confluence with the Weekly S3 Pivot)

marius24 avatar
marius24 22 Mar.

what a nice analysis here..it must come from a good trader

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31/53
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Greetings dear friends. I hope that You have managed to read my Monthly View Analysis from Friday, conducted on the Daily Charts for the Major Pairs. My last article could help to see a larger view of the market for March and could also help you to find better entries on the 4 Hours and 1 Hour Trigger Charts.This Week we will analyse the 4Hours Time frame Chart and the 35 Pips Constant Range Bars Charts for the Major Pairs: Eur/Usd (Fiber), Gbp/Usd (Cable), Aud/Usd (Aussie), Usd/Chf (Swiss Franc), Nzd/Usd (Kiwi), Usd/Cad (Loonie) and Usd/Jpy (Yen).I use the same instruments for my analysis just like the ones that You can see in my last article, only that I will also post Today the 35 Pips Range Bars Charts from Dukascopy's J-forex Platform.>> 1) Eur/Usd - Weekly View - 06-09th of March - 4 Hours Chart in analogy with the 35 Pips Range Bars Chart.        Bearish Probability - We can clearly see an important Key Area between 1.317-1.320 (Key confluence between 200 SMA, Uptrend Line, and 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Bearish).    If the price will break and confirm that breakout from that area, we could see a downside move to reach 1.308 (Weekly S1 Pivot), further a retracement back to …
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ELENA_M avatar
ELENA_M 7 Mar.

thanks for good analysis.

passionforex avatar

good article

marius24 avatar
marius24 22 Mar.

you are good my friend..hope you will aply all this knowledge on real

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7/53
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   Greetings dear friends. Thank You for your support in the last months. I feel motivated me to write even more elaborated analysis and explanation for the Constant Range Bars Charts, the Key Levels and the Timing Solutions (Entry and Exit from the Market).    In this first article from March I would like to post the monthly view analysis, on the daily charts, for the Major Pairs: Eur/Usd (Fiber), Gbp/Usd (Cable), Aud/Usd (Aussie), Usd/Chf (Swiss Franc), Nzd/Usd (Kiwi), Usd/Cad (Loonie) and Usd/Jpy (Yen).   As You know I conduct a weekly analysis for the major pairs, based on the 4 Hours time based charts and 35 Pips Constant Range Bars Charts. Because Today it is Friday and I do not have yet the weekly Pivots from next week, I will have to post another article on Monday with the weekly view.   That is why We will only analyse the Daily charts in this first article from March.   Our Daily chart analysis contains the following instruments:- Monthly Pivots (Main, 3 Supports, 3 Resistences),- SMA - 30,50,100 and 200,- Trendlines and Channels,- Supports and Resistences,- Fibonacci Retracements,- Volume analysis,- Andrew's Pitchfork (new from this month),- Fractals (5 Candles setup, ne…
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Nicco avatar
Nicco 6 Mar.

Interesting...like the others from the same author! +1

passionforex avatar

Thanks for hard working!

nfx avatar
nfx 12 Mar.

Great market structure analysis! Thanks!

marius24 avatar
marius24 22 Mar.

so far i like the most your article compared with the others

ELENA_M avatar
ELENA_M 31 Mar.

pleasure to see you in top-10 again, good luck in final evaluation :)

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25/58
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   Welcome back to a new Trading week my Friends from the Dukascopy Community. As you probably know my Weekly Articles contain Analysis Explanation for the time-based Charts and the Constant Range Bars Charts, and the Analysis for the Current Week for the Major Pairs on the 4Hours Charts in analogy with 35 Pips Range Bars Charts. I try to update the analysis at least once more during the week through the daily view on the 1Hour charts. Sometimes I even post Analysis for other important pairs. My analysis has had 85% Success ratio so far. I make my analysis on both bulish and bearish scenarios, because in any moment the price action has 50-50% of going Bullish or Bearish.This month I have introduced the Timing Solution and the Explanation of the Key-Levels that I use in my Analysis with the Classification depending on the Importance and Impact on the Market.In my analysis I use the following instruments:- Pivot Points (Daily, Weekly and Monthly - Main Pivots, 3 Supports and 3 Resistences),- Fibonacci Retracements (during a Trend),- Simple Moving Averages (30,50,100 and 200 SMA - also effective during an Uptrend or a Downtrend),- Trendlines and Channel Trendlines (During trends and C…
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doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 28 Feb.

Gbp/Usd-1Hour chart-28.02-Update-Bearish Probability,if 1.581(Weekly Main Pivot,confluence with 200 and 100SMA and Uptrend Line)will be broken and confirmed price could reach first 1.575(confluence between Monthly R1 Pivot and Daily S2 Pivot from Tuesday),and further to 1.572(Key Confluence between Weekly S1 Pivot and Uptrend Main Dynamic Support Line).This would be a good level for a Bullish continuation of the Uptrend on 1Hour and 4Hours charts.

doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 28 Feb.

Eur/Usd-1Hour chart-28.02-Update-Bullis Probability,if 1.342(Key Level,confluence between Daily Main Pivot from Tuesday and Uptrend Line,30 and 50SMA cross)will hold as support,price could rise to 1.353(Daily R2 Pivot from Tuesday)and 1.357(Weekly R1 Pivot,confluence with the Uptrend Dynamic Resistence Channel Line).From this level price could retrace bearish to the 1.346(Daily R1 Pivot from Tuesday,becomes then Support),and then continue the upside move to reach 1.368(Weekly R2 Pivot).

doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 28 Feb.

Eur/Usd-1Hour chart-28.02-Update-Bearish Probability,under 1.342(Key confluence between Daily Pivot,30,50SMA and Uptrend Line)price will have to break a key support, the 1.338Level(Key Level,confluence between Weekly Pivot and 100SMA),and finally 1.327(Key Level confluence between 200SMA and Weekly S1 Pivot line),to break the uptrend on the 1Hour Chart.The next support will be 1.312(Monthly Main Pivot,and confluence between two Main Downtrend and Uptrend Line from the Higher Time Frames).

ELENA_M avatar
ELENA_M 28 Feb.

as always very informative and with good presentation :)

Bluedragon avatar
Bluedragon 29 Feb.

good article ;) +1

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   Greetings dear Dukascopy Traders Community. I hope my Analysis from last Week which contained also the Monthly view (Daily Charts) for the Major Pairs, has helped You to get "another view of the Market" (with the Help of My Timing Solution through Range Bars Charts Article). This Week my article will contain two parts: 1) the usual Analysis with the Weekly View (13-17 th of February) by using the 4Hours Charts in Analogy with the 35/15 Pips Range Bars Charts; and 2) an explanation for the Key-Levels that I use in my Analysis both in times Based charts and in Range Bars Charts. Actually There is also a third "view of the Market" next to Time/Price Action and Price Movement Action, a >Different Market Perception< that I will Expose to You in my next Articles.>>> 1) The >> Key-Levels << that  I watch in My Technical Analysis are strictly correlated with the Trading tools and Instruments that I use. What I haven't posted until now is the fact that I use >>2 Time-Frames (4 Hours and 1 Hour, or Daily and 4 Hours) and 2 Constant Range Bars charts setups (35 Pips and 15 Pips)<< to enter the Market.The Bigger Time Frame or Range Bars Charts Setup is called the SETUP Chart.The Entry/Timing, smaller time-frame or Range Bars Charts setup is called the TRIGGER Chart.Key-Levels for the Setup Charts:- Pivot Points (Daily, Weekly and Monthly - Main Pivots, 3 Supports and 3 Resistences),- Fibonacci Retracements (during a Trend),- Simple Moving Averages (30,50,100 and 200 SMA - also effective during an Uptrend or a Downtrend),- Trendlines and Channel Trendlines (During trends and Congestion areas),- Support and ResistencesKey-Levels for the Trigger Charts, besides the ones from the Setup Chart:- Different SMA's (the same setups 30,50,100 and 200SMA) - signal confirmation,- 5 and 13 EMA cross - signal confirmation,- RSI - Trendline Break-out, False Break-out - entry/exit confirmation,- ABCD or 123 Patterns - entry/exit confirmation,- sometimes MACD (convergence, divergence, trendline break-outs) - confirmation.I correlate the Instruments Above with Volumes Analysis and Candlestick/Bars Formations.To enter the Market the Trend on the Setup Chart has to be Correlated with the Trend on the Trigger Chart (correlation of the Signals).>>IMPORTANT<< : I use Different instruments according to the Market Conditions. I use some of the Instruments - all the Time, Some of the Tools for some of the Time, All of the Instruments for a period of time, Sometimes No Key-Level if I trade "Naked" (Based only on price action and Volumes), but I think to Cannot Trade all the time without using these Tools .(after a Quote from Abraham Lincoln).>>So, Key-Levels are Market Points that give the Price/Time Movement a certain order for the traders to see the Levels where there could be important changes in the Price Action.<>CODE RED Key-Levels<<. The Most Important Key-Levels on the Setup Chart are the 2nd Level Key-Levels that are confirmed by the Volumes Analysis / Candlestick/Bar Formations on both charts SETUP and TRIGGER CHARTS.(as shown in the two images above frm the J-forex Dukascopy Platform).For Example, right now as I write this Article I see a CODE RED KEY-LEVEL tested on the 4Hours Chart on the Eur/Usd at the first our of the New York Trading Session (in the Two images above):>> SETUP CHART (4 Hours Time Based Chart):Confluence between Weekly R1 Pivot / 61,8% Fibonacci Retracement from the Daily Chart and 30SMA, confirmed by the last candle (bearish pin-bar) and Volumes (as shown in the Chart).>> TRIGGER CHART (1 Hour Time Based Chart):Confirmation of the Bearish Signal, more than that 50 and 100SMA cross, False Bullish Break-Out above Daily R1 Pivot Candlestick Fromation and high Volume on the Last Bearish Candle (last Hour).This is a great Bearish Signal to Enter Short on the Market.Of Course You will enter the Market with the Exit (Stop Loss and Take Profit) already established.But to analyse the Stop Loss and Take Profit for this Trade I would Need another Two articles and it seems that I run out of Words for this Article (1500 Words Limitation).And one other Secret... The Entry signal has to be also confirmed by the Range Bars Charts in analogy with the time Based charts. For the Example Above this would mean that You have to look also into the analysis on 35 Pips and 15 Pips Range Bars Charts.>>> 2) Let get to our Weekly Analysis (13th - 17th of February):I will post the Charts for the Major Pairs in the Article with the Explanation in the comments because I do not have enough words remaining in the Article.>1) >>> Eur/Usd <<< Weekly view - 4 Hours Chart in analogy with the 35 Pips Range Bars Chart:    >2) >>> Gbp/Usd <<< Weekly view - 4 Hours Chart in analogy with the 35 Pips Range Bars Chart: 
    >3) >>> AUD/Usd <<< Weekly view - 4 Hours Chart in analogy with the 35 Pips Range Bars Chart:   4) >>> Nzd/Usd <<< Weekly view - 4 Hours Chart in analogy with the 35 Pips Range Bars Chart:  
  5)>>> USD/CHF <<< Weekly view - 4 Hours Chart in analogy with the 35 Pips Range Bars Chart: 
   6) >>> Usd/Jpy <<< Weekly view - 4 Hours Chart in analogy with the (15) Pips Range Bars Chart:
  7) >>> Usd/Cad <<< Weekly view - 4 Hours Chart in analogy with the 35 Pips Range Bars Chart:      Thank You for Your Patience to Read My Article and My Analysis.I will post the Written Explanations for the charts in the Comments Section of the Article, as soon as it will be posted. Disclaimer: Please Take responsability for Your own Trading Decisions.To Your success,Doctortyby - Tiberiu
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doctortyby 16 Feb.

Usd/Cad,Daily view,1Hour chart(16.02);Bearish probability if price breaks and confirms 0.998(confluence between Weekly and Daily Pivot and 200Sma),it could drop further to 0.995(Daily S1) and 0.938(Weekly S1 Pivot).Bullish probability,if 0.998(Key Level explained earlier)will hold as support,price could turn bac upside to reach 1.002(Daily r1 Pivot)and 1.005(Key Level, confluence between Weekly R1 and Daily r2 Pivots)

ELENA_M avatar
ELENA_M 18 Feb.

again you were right in analysis, will waiting for another. Thanks :)

Schaolin avatar
Schaolin 22 Feb.

Good luck in Contest! +1

corneliu avatar
corneliu 22 Feb.

good luck +1 :) interesting :))

WyMe avatar
WyMe 22 Feb.

Well Done +1

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  This is the beginning of a new trading month, a new succsessful trading week and our new Constant Range Bars Charts Technical Analysis (35
Pips Bars/Candles) in Analogy with 4 hours Time Based Charts for This Week, for
the Major Pairs (Eur/Usd, Gbp/Usd, Aud/Usd, Usd/Chf, Usd/Jpy, Usd/Cad and
Nzd/Usd). So far, my Analysis has had 85 % Success, because it is based on
Price Action. In this First Analysis in February I will also Post the Monthly
View through the Daily Charts.
You can see examples for my Analysis in My Article Series from December and
January.I recommend You to read my Timing Solution Article, with the help of the Range Bars Charts, because it can help You to find a better use for this Analysis in your trading Plan. As You may know from my previous analysis my Technical instruments are: - Pivot Points (Daily, Weekly, Monthly), supports and resistences,- Simple Moving Averages (30,50,100 and 200),- Fibonacci Retracements,- Trendlines and Channels,- Candlestick Formations,- Volumes Analysis.My analysis contains the 4 Hours Time-Based Charts in Analogy with the 35 Pips Constant Range Bars Charts for the Weekly View. This analysis also contains the Daily Chart for the Mon…
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ELENA_M avatar
ELENA_M 11 Feb.

as always very informative and with good presentation :) trading is really yours

Forsmin avatar
Forsmin 12 Feb.

Good luck. I wish you the first step

ovidiu_gnt avatar
ovidiu_gnt 12 Feb.

Hard work, high satisfaction .

mauyama avatar
mauyama 13 Feb.

nice work

Schaolin avatar
Schaolin 22 Feb.

good article

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16/58
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   The Question to be made is: "What does a Trader need, to be Successful?". It looks like a complex Question, right from the start. Your thoughts fly away to Trading Plans, Strategies, Systems, Methods, but You have to keep into attention the >>> Timing Factor <<<.    The Entry and the Exit (Stop Loss or Take Profit) of the Trade, are the Components that make it Succesful or not.    Of course that you need a complete Analysis, both Fundamental, and Technical to get the Best Entry and Exit for the trade. You might have a great analysis, very accurate, very precise, regarding the Direction of the Market Price, but if you enter too early You might trigger our Stop Loss before the Trade goes the way You have Predicted. On the other hand if You enter too Late, you might lose the Market Move and wake up in the Middle of a high risk trade.   I have written about the Timing issue in my "12 Steps to Make a Trade, 12 Solutions to Discipline Yourself" article from December.           The >>>TIMING<<< issue involves a Time Factor - the best Moment to Enter/Exit the Market.   How can You find the Best Moment in a Time Based Chart?... You have to take "another View of the Market", one that is beyond the Time Factor.   So, We have a Timing Problem, and the Best Solution can be found by Detaching Yourself from the Time Factor.   The next step to take is to concentrate on the >>>Price Movement<<<, on the Volatility of the Market, beyond the Time by using the Range Bars/Candles Charts. You can read about the Range Bars in my first Two articles from my January Articles Series:- Constant Range Bars Charts introduction,- Range Bars Charts Analogy with Time Based Charts.   >> It is amazing how You can use Trading Instruments from the time Based charts, in the Constant Range Bars/Candles Charts analysis, and combine them with specific Tools from the Price Movement Charts (R.B.C. - Range Bars Charts).   >> For example, You can use Pivots (Daily, Weekly and Monthly - Time Based) combined with Moving Averages from the Range Bars Charts, other than those from the related Time Based Charts, and also Trendlines and Channels based only on Price Movement.   >> However, the real Help comes from the Volumes indicator, and the Volume Spread Analysis conducted in the range Bars Charts, because We have a different number of Bars/Candles, and the Volume is distributed different from the time Based Charts.   >> Another Important Difference, the Bars/Candle Formations, show Different Signals, sometimes earlier then the Time Based Chart, correlated with Volume and the Technical and Fundamental Analysis in both types of Charts.   >> >>>IMPORTANT<<< Volume doesn't Always follow the Fundamental Anaysis and News. They are sometimes higher during the OPEN/CLOSE of the Asian (Tokyo), London or New York.   >>>SOLUTION - Use the Time Factors, Fundamentals and Market Opening and Closing to Spot the Best Entry and Exit Signals by using the Constant Range Bars Charts (Price Movement and Volatility Charts), with the Specific Tools: Volumes, Volume Spread Analysis, combines with Candle/Bars Formations and Technical Analysis. Just Follow the "Smart Money"  (Professional Traders) Real Movement.  
I will post some Chart examples to Better understand the Theory.
   First, let's see an example of the signals provided by the Volumes
combined with Candle Formations in both Types of Charts (Time Based and Range
Bars Charts - 10 Pips). 
In analogy with the Time-Based Chart - 15 Minutes Time Frame:   
Next You can see two examples of How you can combine different instruments in
Constant Range Bars Charts.
Example 1:  
Example 2: 
 
 
Thank you for reading my article. I hope you can use the Information to build a
Better trading Plan and Strategies.
Remember to take a Look at my Constant Range Bars Charts Technical Analysis (35
Pips Bars/Candles) in Analogy with 4 hours Time Based Charts for This Week, for
the Major Pairs (Eur/Usd, Gbp/Usd, Aud/Usd, Usd/Chf, Usd/Jpy, Usd/Cad and
Nzd/Usd). So far, my Analysis has had 85 % Success, because it is based on
Price Action. In the First Analysis in February I will also Post the Monthly
View through the Daily Charts.
You can see examples for my Analysis in My Article Series from December and
January.
Disclaimer: Please Assume Responsability for You Own Trading Decisions.
Thank You,
To Your success,
Tiberiu - Doctortyby  
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doctortyby 15 Feb.

In trader's Contest I am testing a strategy based on the Currency correlation. It does not follow that successful analysis(85%) from my Weekly Articles (with Updates)as I use Different pairs to trade and different correlations between the currencies.

Schaolin avatar
Schaolin 22 Feb.

good article +1

ante777 avatar
ante777 25 Feb.

Great articles and analysis. Thank you.

forastero avatar
forastero 28 Feb.

good article

Bluedragon avatar
Bluedragon 28 Feb.

nice article +1

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