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2014 - Fx Market Outlook

Daytrader21 Postado 6 Jan in #GBP/USD #Abenomics #USD/JPY #AUD/USD #Rba #Fed #Taper #Fx Market
11/29
Classificação

This article is a continuation and a reproduce of my recent blog post series were I was trying to give my own view on the major currency pairs for this year but I never got the change to finish it, so I though it may be a good idea to write an article were to cover this subject. Keep in mind this is just my personal opinion and my own plan for this year, it may or may not work out, flexibility is key, because things can change very fist in today's market.
  • USD/JPY Outlook
I'm going to give out my Fx Market Outlook for this year and I'm going to start with my favorite currency pair: Japanese Yen. I want to take the time to go through all the major currency pairs and give my personal outlook for 2014.
We know that currently the YEN pairs is all about Abenomics market policies. The "Abenomics effect" have had a huge impact to revive Japan's economy, strengthening consumer consumer spending. Although many have doubted the market policies of Japan's new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe are working very well: stock market is booming, real estate prices are rising, and retail sales are also rising. So far "Abenomics" has been a huge success, and this is very supportive for the current USD/JPY …
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Schaolin avatar
Schaolin 22 Jan

good job and good luck

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 22 Jan

@Metal Mind thanks buddy I hope everything is good on your side.

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 22 Jan

@Decebal & @Schaolin Thanks guys

Jignesh avatar
Jignesh 1 Fev

Really good article. I love the USD/JPY Fractal. It scares me a bit how I've been looking at the same pairs with almost the exact same analysis! The only difference in my analysis is that I'm looking at the GBP/CAD rather than the GBP/USD. Good Job on the article and best wishes on your trades for 2014

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 1 Fev

@jignesh thanks man, The thing with having a long term view is to be very flexible as this days central banks around the world tend to change and adjust their market policy to the new the economic threats, see for example recent emerging market crisis and how central banks reacted.

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The Taper Games

Likerty Postado 16 Dez in #Majors #Fomc #Taper #No Taper
15/46
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Here we go again with new “insane” levels against the dollar across the board and taper is right behind the corner to give us a trade of the lifetime. Or is it? While many planning their big long dollar of the lifetime, market movers already in their big short of their own record.
Let’s take a look to what happened trough out the year. The first wave of taper expectations started to gather momentum in June, but with unexpected Bernanke’s assurance “for foreseeable future” EUR/USD printed a record 400 pip daily candle and kept going until September. Then again – just a bit of profit taking and all the fuss in the financial media about not “if”, but “how much” taper will be announced. That day Gold had some buying right in to the moment of announcement – very suspicious developments if you believe that all market participants got “the news” at the same time.
And now – again… Couple of marginally better numbers and speculations began. Let’s face it – employment data is nowhere close to pre 2008 levels and recent two NFP prints is just a non-event, compared to constant 300-400k add-ups in older days.. But, is employment or any other macro data have any importance for the FED at all whe…
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Likerty avatar
Likerty 16 Dez

As I pointed in the article - all the positioning is already done, as market movers probably started the proces way before.. So far looks, like markets preparing for another dollar weakness wave..

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 16 Dez

Nice buddy, it seems this month many a lot of us decided to write about the Fed taper decision:). I always enjoy reading different points of view.

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 16 Dez

But lets not forget I was the first one who wrote about it:))

Mani avatar
Mani 19 Dez

very good work +1

Likerty avatar
Likerty 29 Dez

Not much of a knee-jerk reaction, but main theme is still on the table - stocks, euro and cable - proceeding further up (Gold and Aussie will join later) and should continue untill technical targets gets reached..

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Taper or no Taper - 2014 Main Market Theme

Daytrader21 Postado 7 Dez in #Trading #EUR/USD #Fed #Taper #Bonds #Central Bank #Quantitative Easing #Timing #Operation Twist #Market Theme
13/46
Classificação

I felt the need to cover this subject as well before the year end, because in my humble opinion it will be the dominant market driven theme of 2014, and if you're an investor or an active trader you want to make sure you understand the market implications of such a big event, because it will dictate the market tone for the next year. Even if you're only a technical analyst trader there is no way you haven't heard at least one time about "Taper", so have you ever asked yourself what does it mean and how it will affect your trading operations? The sole purpose of this article will be to answer precisely to that question.
The word tapering in financial terms is increasingly being used to refer to the anticipated reduction of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing(QE), or bond buying program. The current Federal Reserve quantitative easing (QE3) accounts for purchases amounting to $85 billion in Treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) per month, with the main scope lower interest rates and therefore bolster growth.
  • What is Quantitative Easing?
Since the global financial crisis of 2007–2008 the FED has begin using new type of market policy like Quantitative Easing to try to …
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Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 19 Dez

Update: For the December meeting the market expectation for a taper where considerable low, however FED is shocking the market again with a taper decision. If you try to make a reasoning of WHY now tapering? my take is that this was last appearance for Bernanke and his last change to make a good impression in front of the public, and it was also a good strategy for the Fed because if something would have gone terribly wrong, Yellen the New Chairman could have promise that she will do changes and fix the problem, and this would certainly send confidence signals to market participants (2)

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 19 Dez

Update: As expected market reaction was in both direction and we saw a big whipsaw as volatility was very high during the news release and also during the Q&A session. Although Fed decided to do a small tapering and only cutting back their stimulus programs by a minor 10B, Ben Bernanke has said during the press conference that any further cut in QE is data depending and "end of QE certainly won't be at mid-year" suggesting that it will take longer before they will end the QE programme for good. And this can easily extend through the whole 2014 year and beyond, but that remains to be seen.(3)

Metal_Mind avatar
Metal_Mind 19 Dez

Thanks bro.....I owe my 210 pips on gbp /jpy..hope to get 2000 pips until i closed it ... to your article. I sow the third picture of what was the reaction of no tapering on euro usd,,,,whatch it on gbp usd and correlated with gbpjpy because beiing a cross is more volatile and i kinda anticipated this move. Thanks again.

FXdream avatar
FXdream 20 Dez

nice++++

ilonalt avatar
ilonalt 26 Dez

well done!

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