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I personally started trading EURCHF pair after Swiss National Bank intervention on September, 6 2011. At that time I was new forex trader and for me it was epic move. The exchange rate of EURCHF skyrocketed from 1.1018 to 1.2187 in just 3 hours, which is 1169 pips move as you can see on figure 1. Many traders lost or made really lot money thanks to this event.
Figure 1. EUR/CHF Hourly chart. Swiss National Bank Intervention in 2011


Yesterday it was just three years from SNB annoucing 1.2000 floor and market wasn´t able to break this floor as you can see on figure 2. The main question for me right now is, will SNB protect 1.2000 level this time? Will be or will be not market able to break this level in medium term perspective? What are the risks in current market situation?
Figure 2. EUR/CHF Weekly chart. Situation after SNB intervention.


Technical analysis of EUR/CHF pair
Current market exchange rate is 1.2063. The most important level to watch is 1.2000, which should be protected by Swiss National Bank, many retail traders and big players, so the best level, where to put stop loss to protect capital is under level 1.2000. For my trading style is ideal level 1.1970, which is 30 …
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Airmike avatar
Airmike 10 Sep.

I vote for EURCHF long. :)

Daytrader21 avatar

Well, just after I've posted my comment yesterday SNB spokesman Meier give an interview to WSJ saying SNB is open for negative rate, which is an old news as every time EUR/CHF come near the PEG they pull out of a hat this rhetoric:)). I hope you took some profits as it will come back again:))

PTtrader avatar
PTtrader 11 Sep.

My target is 1.2250 for first medium term position :) I dont think that they will apply it in medium term, they thought about it even two years ago.

peachynicnic avatar

nice, thanks

VictoriaVika avatar

Thanks for your article, there is many useful information, really good strategy and detail explanation. Victoria

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4/58
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In the past I've wrote an
article about EURCHF setup. We all know that currently this pair is
in a strong downtrend. But we also know that SNB set a floor –
1.2000 - for this pair. So we still have
great opportunities to trade. Currently I am building longs of this
pair. I expect that just after these problems and uncertainties with
Euro end, pair will move up. Also intervention by SNB is probable
too. Rumours about new – higher floor would fast lift the pair too. But also while trading this pair, risk
has to be calculated and stops have
to be used. We cannot be 100% sure if SNB will
defend floor. They can change their minds. In this case we would get
crash of this pair. So all positions should be reversed in this case.
Anyway I think that this scenario is least probable, because now,
when they already set the floor, changing minds would be very
damaging to Frank rate.In this
article I will shortly show the levels and what I am expecting.
In a
chart below is a daily chart of bigger picture. On a regular pair we
could expect a reversal, so with 1.2000 floor odds for a reversal are
even higher.
Below is
a 1 hour chart with uptrend line. There were few nice opportunities
to long from …
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jurga1s avatar
jurga1s 18 Feb.

Not bad. Now the pair is at 1.2087, that is +23 pips from 1.2064. And that level really worked! Just in this case fundamentals means a lot too.

aurelijus avatar
aurelijus 18 Feb.

Don't know, this looks dangerous.

ritesh avatar
ritesh 26 Feb.

perfect analysis.

adask avatar
adask 29 Feb.

Currently the pair is stuck at 1.2050. If we would look at bid line we'll see how 1.2050 is magic. We have to keep in mind this. I think SNB will not allow lower for now. And currently I see some funds forecasting 1.2700, well this is far future.

Bluedragon avatar
Bluedragon 29 Feb.

good luck;) +1

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28/65
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EURCHF is one of the unique pairs. It's action is always interesting and regular analysis not always works on this pair. It's because Switzerland doesn't want strong Frank. Why is that? Because they export a lot and weak currency compared to others, means that products are cheaper. And we all like to buy cheaper products. So from time to time SNB (Swiss National Bank) intervenes (sells a lot of Franks, so weakens it). This is the reason why it's hard to trade on regular technical analysis. Also sometimes it's enough for rumors about intervention to come out and everybody starts to sell CHF.  Obvious and recent intervention happened at 2011 Septemper 6th. That day EURCHF pair moved ~1000 pips. Yes yes - 1000 pips in one direction and in several hours. 1 hour chart below (links to the full-sized images are listed in the end of this article).There's also a very unique thing about this pair - SNB said that bottom for this pair will be 1.2000 and they will do everything to defend this level. I do not remember any currency pair to have a bottom. It's a very big advantage, we should use in our favor. Besides, rumors are that they will set a new bottom - 1.3000. But this is not confirmed, …
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LinnuxFX avatar
LinnuxFX 24 Nov.

Nice Trading approach, good luck for this article, and for the trade if you enter on it...

jonas avatar
jonas 24 Nov.

Good article. But now euro/frank looks in sooo downtrend! Do you think SNB will intervene again? I would be afraid to long now.

adask avatar
adask 25 Nov.

Thanks LinnuxFX. Jonas - I know that longing eurchf doesn't look good now. But I think we'll get a good trade soon. I will long at 1.2230, 1.2130 and if needed at 1.2030.

adask avatar
adask 25 Nov.

Besides there's eurchf chart - http://twitpic.com/7jba74/full
I think a nice entry level forming. But we need euro strength.

ksalam avatar
ksalam 26 Nov.

Interesting and useful post. thanks.Good luck +1
Visit my article & give me your feedback.

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26/94
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    On the morning of September sixth, Swiss National Bank (SNB) announced a minimal exchange rate of 1.20 for the pair EUR/CHF. This was expected, but rather unusual event in the forex market. Just after 08:00 GMT from the SNB announced that they will devote the necessary resources to support the franc at a level of at least 1.20 against the euro. The big overvaluation of the Swiss franc now poses a threat to the Swiss economy and carries a risk of deflationary spiral development. Even at a rate of 1.20, which is 8% above the today morning rate, the swiss frank is still overvalued, according to SNB and the devaluation should continue further. The SNB announced that there is consensus for buying unlimited quantities of foreign currencies (i.e. euro) if it is necessary to support this exchange rate.     The movement of about one thousand pips in only 25 minutes is such a rare event, that it is practically impossible. It could be indicated as a very unusual black swan. This is one of the many cases showing that the statistical science fail to predict the probability of such a big economic event, because they are out of the range of the normal probabilities. This wa…
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quantum_fx avatar

I am not sure, is it realy safe to buy EUR/CHF, and especcialy USD/CHF but it has some potential

NagarajaAdiga avatar

looks like Switzerland is going China way of controlling their currency value. How long will it sustain that effort is the matter of time

megajorko avatar

Very interesting

quantum_fx avatar

Thank you for the comments! It is very likely that China will free its currency in near future, but in my oppinion the SNB decision now is very risky.

Livornese avatar
Livornese 11 Sep.

Awesome article. I didn't know that in the 70s Swiss pegged their franc to the Deutsche Mark. A lot of economists said that this is the last card of SNB. Let's see! I personally put a stop loss under 1.20 :-)

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56/73
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Before explode of financial crisis in 2008 Swiss franc gained compared to US dollar almost 20% in six months. Now his quotation rise even faster. Only from beginning of spring Swiss franc gained more than 20% compared to euro and US dollar and most of this move from beginning of the July. This situation forced Central Bank of Switzerland to intervene by throwing 50 billions francs on market and decreasing bank rates. This brought temporary abreact on markets. But why investors buy francs and take him on all-time highs? This is all cause by losing fate in euro and US dollar. Considered as safest harbor for money in insure times, franc can indicate incoming financial storm. Rising public depts, low efficiency of saving programs and no solid plan from western governments to solve this problems this was real cause of investors exodus from stock markets in recent weeks bringing down world indexes. Recent decision of Standards & Poor about downgrading the nation credit rating of United States from AAA to AA+ has been surprise for some of us but macroeconomic data clearly shows that global economy is slowing on both sides of Atlantic. United Kingdom probably will enter in second p…
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Quant-Trader avatar

+1 :) Crazy times.. fatal reality :>

ritesh avatar
ritesh 25 Aug.

Nice and timely article. Yes, it's all can be called in two words: Financial Terrorism. +1 for ya buddy

LinnuxFX avatar
LinnuxFX 25 Aug.

Well done with this article, good luck for the contest ... vote for mine here : http://www.dukascopy.com/fxcomm/fx-article-contest/?action=read&article=How-To-Trade-Harmonics-&id=13

ritesh avatar
ritesh 28 Aug.

check out my articles too at http://www.dukascopy.com/fxcomm/fx-article-contest/?action=blog&user=ritesh

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