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3/65
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Приветствую всех участников сообщества Dukascopy!
В своей прошлой статье "Смысл различных Payout/refund при торговле бинарными опционами" я привел размышления и расчеты о том, как влияет на торговлю бинарными опционами параметр Payout/Refund.
На этот раз я продолжу размышления еще о двух аспектах при торговле бинарными опционами:
  1. Выбор инструмента для торговли в зависимости от спреда;
  2. Выбор периода открываемой нами сделки Duration.

Рассмотрим выбор инструмента в зависимости от спреда.

Для понимания о чем идет речь посмотрим на рисунок:
Совершая сделку, например, Put наша цена ASK должна опуститься ниже чем первоначальный BID к моменту завершения сделки, то есть цена должна пройти величину больше чем спред. Только в этом случае мы получим прибыль. Получается, что нам нужно не только угадать направление движения цены, но и что бы это движение превысило величину спреда - как на следующем рисунке:
Из этого можно сделать очевидный вывод:
Для увеличения вероятности получения профитной сделки нужно вибирать для торговли инструменты с меньшим спредом

Также очевидно, что для того, чтобы цена прошла величину спреда - нам необходима еще хорошая волатильность валютной пары. Нужно,…
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Yonggi7 avatar
Yonggi7 26 May

"The meaning of the various Payout / refund when trading binary options, is very important to know this concept! Well done!
Congratulations!

Vlad_55 avatar
Vlad_55 26 May

Согласен с мнением многих - бинарные опционы для тех кто любит риск, а прибыль уже потом))

ZolushkaAngelina avatar

Очень интересная статья! Молодец!

_shokolad_ avatar

Очень интересно)

TelisHellano avatar

good analysis!

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1/59
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Имею желание купить дом, но не имею возможности.
"Кавказская пленница, или Новые приключения Шурика"

Введение
На рынке присутствует два типа трейдеров - торгующие по рыночным ценам и те, кто эти цены устанавливает. Обычно трейдеры первого типа торгуют с трейдерами второго типа. Озаглавим вторых поставщики ликвидности. Именно о них и будет вестись речь в данной статье. Начнем.
Определение ликвидности
Предположим у вас имеется некоторая сумма валюты A и вы хотите приобрести за нее эквивалентную сумму валюты Б. Для того чтобы вы смогли это сделать вам нужен человек, который вам эту валюту продаст. Этот человек предоставляет вам возможность в любой момент времени приобрести то количество валюты Б, которое вам необходимо. Иначе говоря он предоставляет вам ликвидность.
Как формируется ликвидность
Если вы когда либо переключались в вашей платформе на тиковый график, вы наверняка могли наблюдать подобную картинку:
Рис.1 Тиковый график пары USD/RUB
На данном изображении мы можем наблюдать тиковый график паре Доллар/Рубль за 21 января 2015 года. Чем примечателен данный график? Внимание притягивает его явно пилообразный рисунок. Что происходило в данный момент? Что заставило график принять им…
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GammaBurst avatar

Very useful!

Daniil_Stolnikov avatar

Thanks all for support!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Daniil_Stolnikov avatar
Webinar by "Daniil_Stolnikov" on "May April Contest 1st Place Winner", 10.06.2016
Понятие ликвидности и как она образуется Лимитные BID/OFFER ордера Работа внутри спреда Возможные ошибки и как их избежать To join our LIVE daily webinars, follow the link below and click "click to join": www.dukascopy.com/tv/Live Смотрите Dukascopy TV на вашем языке:… Понятие ликвидности и как она образуется Лимитные BID/OFFER ордера Работа внутри спреда Возможные ошибки и как их избежать To join our LIVE daily webinars, follow the link below and click "click to join": www.dukascopy.com/tv/Live Смотрите Dukascopy TV на вашем языке: http://www.youtube.com/user/dukascopytvrussian 用您的语言观看杜高斯贝电视: http://www.youtube.com/user/dukascopytvchinese Miren Dukascopy TV en su idioma: http://www.youtube.com/user/dukascopytvspanish Schauen Sie Dukascopy TV in Ihrer Sprache: http://www.youtube.com/user/dukascopytvgerman Regardez la Dukascopy TV dans votre langue: http://www.youtube.com/user/dukascopytvfrench Veja a TV Dukascopy na sua língua: http://www.youtube.com/user/dukascopytvpt

Webinar :)

Marenno avatar
Marenno 13 June

молодчага!!!

Mohammed9 avatar
Mohammed9 18 July

great

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12/76
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In this article are described some concepts that can be used to optimize automated strategies.
The topics covered are:
  1. Minimizing cost
  2. Finding an optimal entry/exit within a short time period
  3. Using Big Data to optimize strategies
  4. Statistically evaluating a strategy

Minimizing costs

Costs arise from the spread and commission. Statistically, these costs are the only thing that will cause you to lose money from trades.
The spread is by smallest on the EUR/USD pair but even on this pair, it changes enormously throughout the day. A strategy should therefore follow the spread closely and only enter or exit positions when it’s at its smallest level.
The graph above shows how the average spread and its standard deviation evolves throughout the day. It is important to keep in mind that the spread may change between the moment when you place an order and the moment at which the position is really taken.
Finding an optimal entry/exit within a short time period
Trends are a central point to any strategy. If there were no trends, there would be no means to predict price movements.
It is hard to claim whether trends occur on larger time scales or not but is definitely the case for very s…
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tdbatinkov avatar

Every strategy is winning only... when its settings are in harmony, in resonance with present market conditions...but the market is always changing

Natalia_Kisenko avatar

good advice

zarina avatar
zarina 19 Feb.

Article about the optimization strategies are the most useful!

Olkiss70 avatar
Olkiss70 21 Feb.

very nice job!

Nihad avatar
Nihad 27 Feb.

Good luck buddy

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4/70
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Из чего складывается прибыль трейдера? Точнее вопрос должен звучать так - что необходимо сделать трейдеру, чтобы получить прибыль? Естественно купить дешевле и продать дороже. Как известно на рынке всегда существуют две цены - цена предложения(bid) и цена спроса(ask). И если вы хотите продать актив вы продаете его по цене bid. Если же вы хотите купить, то покупаете по цене Ask. Цена Ask всегда выше цены Bid. Разница между ценой спроса и предложения называется рыночным спредом. Иными словами если вы единовременно продадите актив о снова выкупите его обратно ваша первоначальная сумма уменьшится на величину спреда.
Как же мы можем узнать величину этого самого спреда и рассчитать потери? К сожалению в платформе JForex данная возможность по умолчанию отсутствует. По умолчанию в платформе отображается только цена Bid. Исключение составляет только тиковый график, который в повседневной торговле использует сравнительно малое количество трейдеров. И соответственно о своих потерях мы с вами можем только догадываться. Как же нам исправить это досадное недоразумение и увидеть текущий спред и цену Ask? Тут к нам на помощь приходит встроенный в платформу язык программирования стратегий. Он то и …
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Raido avatar
Raido 30 Jan.

Не плохо. И по коду довольно внятно.Но почему стратегия? Это же можно реализовать как индикатор.

Kbelestro avatar
Kbelestro 31 Jan.

useful article.great work

Olkiss70 avatar
Olkiss70 31 Jan.

интересная статья

TaniaS avatar
TaniaS 31 Jan.

Отличная статья!

TaniaS avatar
TaniaS 5 Feb.

Очень хорошая статья!

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3/66
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Helpful Links for This Article
As someone using multiple brokers, I can confirm Dukascopy has tighter spreads and commissions. I'm not cheer-leading just honest opinion from a high-frequency trader – where tight spreads matter. Consider screenshots from other two brokers I use versus Dukascopy.
Spreads 2nd Nov 2015
Volume Commissions 2nd Nov 2015
The spread difference isn't impressive, but note the difference in commissions between Dukascopy and my other broker. Such pricing is the reason I may consider moving my accounts over to Dukascopy if JForex4 meets all the hype.
This article is about lowering overall charges not comparing brokers so let’s get into it.
Set Reasonable Global Stop Loss on Your Account

This won’t lower your charges per se, set a conservative stop loss on your live account. This applies to total drop in equity not per trade.
In the image, I'm not willing to lose more than 20% of a 20,000 account so, stop loss is 18,000.
It’s up to you to choose partial hedge or total close on …
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SikmaN avatar
SikmaN 26 Nov.

Thank you. A useful material))

PipNovice avatar
PipNovice 30 Nov.

Hi All, I'm a novice in trading.

I'm using the Jforex platform. I downloaded the Pipx 1Min Scalper, it is installed on my platform as can be seen on screenshot. I've also opened it to run, but that is just all I can understand so far.

I would like to be assisted as to how I actually trade using the strategy. Does it work on it's own. Do I have to look for something else on my chart to see that it is working/to get it working... or the fact that now it is running is enough it will just make pips rain into my small account? 

Please explain in "English", not some coding language. Lol... Thanx

PipNovice avatar
PipNovice 30 Nov.

Oops, sorry screenshot doesn't show the strategy on above image... but I have installed and it's running as I post, so I would like clarity on how Pipx 1Min strategy works. Best regards,

pipx avatar
pipx 30 Nov.

PipNovice is the strategy running - either in remote or local? If yes, then all you have to do is let it open trades and manage them itself.

pipx avatar
pipx 30 Nov.


PipNovice Read the description of the strategy on JStore: https://www.dukascopy.com/jstore/. You will get a better understanding than what I can write on the comments. Also test it on a demo to see how it works.

Best Regards

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12/38
Ranking

Forex is a very lucrative market and it is attracting people everyday who are eager to invest their hard earned money and make it big in short span of time.
Due to it's high interest among public, new Forex brokers are appearing in the market continuously.
There are countless number of Forex brokers in the trading world so choosing the right one is absolutely crucial to start your trading journey.
In my previous article, I have already stated the basic steps to choose a broker that would keep your trading safari less dreadful and help you achieve your goals without worrying about external factors. After getting useful comments from knowledgeable community members and gaining experience through research and trying out multiple brokers, I am confident that ECN brokers are way more suitable than Market Markers.
[ NOTE - If you all have missed out my previous article, here is the link < http://www.dukascopy.com/fxcomm/fx-article-contest/?A-Book-And-B-Book&action=read&id=1925#read-article > This would help you all relate to the topic and have insights about brokers world ]

What is an ECN Broker ?

The word ECN is an abbreviation for Electronic Communications Network.
It provides a ma…
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Erialda avatar
Erialda 16 May

Great i was thinking to add to my article how to define a good ECN broker but you my friend explained very well and i have nothing to add , just to wish you good luck in this contest :)) Cheers :))

jezz avatar
jezz 16 May

market maker platforms usually have bugs through which you can see them hunting your loss. but it takes money to be lost to realize that

shanziester avatar

I would have to disagree with you Jezz. You can identify a MM broker easily without throwing your money :P

shanziester avatar

thank you Omela !

shanziester avatar

thanks alifari, carpe and Myidea. cheers !

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1/40
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High Frequency Trading
Instead of trying to make a lot of money quickly, we should try to make a constant profit. Strategies that bet weekly or daily cannot guarantee this because the assessment of the strategy will automatically be made on too few trades. For example, a strategy with a 20 day MA that keeps positions open for an average of 10 days can only have about 10 truly independent trades per year. Whatever the strategy results, they cannot be trusted to repeat in the future.
On the other hand, a strategy that bets on the scale of the tick can easily make thousands of truly independent trades and therefore, the results are much more likely to repeat in the future.
However, there is the drawback that movements are going to be very small and beating the spread and the commission proves almost impossible. Our method allows us to predict a few ticks ahead with more than 60% accuracy consistently over very long periods. this is not yet suficient to make a profitable strategy because trades cost more than they yield. However, we are allready beating the spread and a good share of the commision and there are a few leads as to future improvements.

The LSTM networ
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jetic avatar
jetic 21 Oct.

Thanks to your comments in your other articles, I also found the XLBP dmonner package and got quite familiar with. Java is my favorite language.
Still I am quite confused what a "trial" is, and how I should configure it. In classical machine learning, say with a random forest, I would feed the data of the last 20 minutes to predict the next minute (for example). Here, I would create a "trial", feed the last 20 minutes successively as steps. But I won't get the response (target) in the end, but I would get a response in every step.
But how large should the trial be (resolution 1 min): 1h? 1d?

jetic avatar
jetic 21 Oct.

The network design and the trial design seems to have large impact on the performance, right?
Thank you very much for the articles with the neuronal nets at all!!

olga avatar
olga 21 Oct.

well you don't need to use the output of the network on every tick, say you've got a trial of 20 ticks, you feed the data for 20 ticks and at the end of those 20 ticks use the output for prediction.

If you have 20 ticks, you won't have the same final output as if you only input the last ten ticks since it has a memory. this last prediction is the one you want.

now for training: on every step you need to update your lstm based on the last prediction's error but you need to re-run the entire trial with this updated network to get the following prediction.

olga avatar
olga 21 Oct.

that's the way I use it anyways. For network and trial design, I find single layered nets made up of about ten cells with trials of around ten ticks give best results, oh and I filter out very small movements so it's not exactly ticks I use. however this depends grately on the instrument, period ect..

you can implement some sort of parameter optimisation method but, to be used live in forex, it has to be "on-line". there's an article I did about that.

I hope I'm clear, just be careful what you train on, basically, if you get > 60 % correct predictions you're probably cheating somehow.

bye

maninmoon avatar
maninmoon 18 July

Hi Olga, can we talk about how you structure the data for the LSTM?

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17/29
Ranking
Finding the best instrument to trade on really depends on how you trade but you can calculate what instrument is cheapest to trade on by measuring the added cost of spread and commission. In fact, the difference between instruments can be huge.
The trading costs vary through time so let’s see what instruments was cheapest to trade with dukascopy over the last month.
By the way,one could calculate the cheapest instrument to trade on precisely with dukascopy’s forex calculator but since spreads vary so much, a random strategy making thousands of trades and running for a month is more accurate.
The cost of an instrument is measured by the loss/turnover of the strategy for each instrument. I didn’t bother do this for all instruments as it is a little time consuming, but you can always post a comment if you’re wandering about a specific instrument and I’ll test it out for you.

As you can see, the differences are huge. Ttrading silver is 20 times more expensive than EUR/USD, this means you need to be sure to make good profit before beating the costs and it basicaly means that these instruments are practically impossible to day-trade.
This information points towards EURUSD being a better
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jezz avatar
jezz 19 Jan.

This is an interesting topic, but i must agree with airmike... and strongly disagree with the statistic of potential loss. If you flip a coin, there's a 50% chance of getting heads. If you flip 5 times and get heads every time, on the sixth throw the chance of getting either side is still 50%. Same in forex - always 50% chance of losing each trade. Staying on the winning side is a reasult of analysis, knowledge, experience...

olga avatar
olga 19 Jan.

Thanks for the ideas Airmike. I understand your criticism about the random strategy but I actually see this as an advantage since it gives an average for a certain time period. Perhaps it's best to calculate cost precisely at the moment of a trade but this "average" allowed me to get an idea of the most expensive and cheapest instruments overall.

Also, you never really know exactly what spread you're going to get, so an average over many trades takes care of that nicely.

But I don't understand your second comment, the historical tester takes care of currency conversions in my place.

olga avatar
olga 19 Jan.

and jezz, I agree that for each single trade you have 50% chance of winning and losing (appart for the costs that push your chances towards losing) but IF you bet the same share of your account on every trade and IF you look ahead over several trades, there are more chances that you'll end up with less money than you started. That's not the case if you bet the same ammount on every trade though but I doubt a trader with an account for 10.000$ is willing to bet the same as a trader with an account of 1 million $.

Airmike avatar
Airmike 19 Jan.

@Olga It is not criticism my friend. I just provide way how I calculate a cost of the trade.For example I like to trade EURNZD EURAUD GBPNZD GBPAUD even if spreads are high, but advantage is volatility. you can check the profit chart from my analysis to better explanation what i am talking about http://www.dukascopy.com/fxcomm/fx-article-contest/?Secret-Of-Success-In-Technical&action=read&id=1773 picture number 5

olga avatar
olga 19 Jan.

I see your point, and I realy enjoy receiving some comments. I consider them positive criticism and I had never thought of considering costs compared with volatility. The article is a nice read and I apreciate your approach. good luck in the contest, I thrust you'll end in a top position.

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3/41
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We've all been there, you put on a trade and it shows you
some profit, then all of a sudden the spread widens considerably and your
stop-loss is hit, causing you to lose money. A few seconds later the spread
goes back to normal and the price quickly resumes its previous (profitable)
trend, but you no longer have a trade on.
Or you've placed a buy stop order to open a new position if
the price reaches x, it is triggered when the spread widens, but as soon as the volatility subsides the price returns to where it was before the chaos
started, ie. much lower than x, so you now have a losing trade on your hands.
                                    This trader lost a lot of money due to widening spreads...This article will show you how to avoid having
an opening or closing order prematurely filled, due to the spread widening
during important news or off market hours, using the different order types
provided by Dukascopy. ► Why do spreads widen/tighten?In a well-functioning financial market, where prices are
dictated by various market participants (and not by a single entity/market
maker), instruments do not have fixed bid/ask spreads. Usually, the higher the
liquidity, the lower the vola…
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SpecialFX avatar
SpecialFX 16 Aug.

But what happens if the price is 1.1971/72, some news comes out and the spread temporarily widens to 1.1961/82? Your stop would be filled at 1.1961. If you use the orders I recommend your stop will only be activated if the market actually reaches the price you indicated, because the more the spreads widen the less likely it is for the order to be filled. With the other orders the position can be filled at ''non-market'' prices during short periods of high volatility, because the more the spreads widen the more likely it is for the order to be filled :)

Myprox4x avatar
Myprox4x 20 Aug.

I learned few things from your article +1

scramble avatar
scramble 20 Aug.

yes right! indeed better follow your suggestions when using buy/sell stop orders or limit orders. can help a lot when market spikes!

MrSami avatar
MrSami 29 Aug.

nice.. good work.

berkek avatar
berkek 26 Mar.

This is by far the best article I have read in the community posts. Thanks for sharing.

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10/94
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For one thing, this is just a very very brief introduction to VSA. If I were to write everything I knew on the subject, it would go well beyond the limit of the article and be so long that I'd lose interest in the middle of it because you guys should be reading Master the Markets by Tom Williams to have a complete understanding of VSA. I just want to introduce the concept and idea behind VSA and go over some examples.Volume Spread Analysis, or VSA, is the study of volume and spread to determine the supply/demand imbalances present in the market. The truth is the markets are rigged in favor of certain group of market makers and syndicates who are always making money. This group is what we refer to as the "strong holders". The ones that are screwed are pretty much the retailers. This group is what we refer to as the "weak holders". People seem to hold the notion that news is whats driving price action. No, thats not the case at all. Trends are driven primarily by a supply and demand imbalance set by the strong holders. The strong holders trade with a very large amount of money, so they have liquidity issues. So that means the best way for them to load positions is to buy into weaknes…
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kawser avatar
kawser 28 Sep.

Thank you Rahul... A great article... :)

pipscity avatar
pipscity 6 Oct.

Thanks for sharing, i am "trying" to use VSA this month on daily chart will see how it goes or if i understand the stuff correctly :)

fxadb42 avatar
fxadb42 2 Nov.

no images? there's just [img1], [img2] but no actual images. is this just here or is this normal?

fxadb42 avatar
fxadb42 2 Nov.

(i tried with 3 different browsers)

klimce avatar
klimce 5 Nov.

Interesting article...I`ll chek the book you recomended. Thanks for sharing.

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