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17/31
Ranking
Hi Friends,
Welcome to first month of financial year, you know one bitter fact in the forex market. Forex is war between individuals where expertise tigers will hunt down new deer’s and share the flesh of profit among them so my aim is to save as many deer I can so I love to share my new leanings to new deer’s to escape from the clutches of tigers and to become one of them without giving away their flesh.
When I am was deer to the forex trading I used to have 100 of doubts, 1000 of confusion, I used to search an answer for all of those and spend some time in reading to learn forex. I am so scared like other deer’s and used to do lot of practice without proper knowledge and used to fallow forex gurus and their signals.
Every new deer will do the same at the beginning life of trading like:
1.Searching a 100 percent working strategy .
2.Searching signals providers.
3.Searching any website that gives an signals for trading.
4.Searching for indicators.
5.Searching for trading systems.
Ask yourself now; did you search any of the above?
You say yes,I know searching a pearl in ocean is difficult but you will get a pearl one day but searching a boat on dry land to get your destination i…
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iiivb avatar
iiivb 12 May

excellent and thanks for sharing!

Siarhei89 avatar

good

SergeyF avatar
SergeyF 14 May

good!

Ayushvam avatar
Ayushvam 14 May

very well written..!!

Yonggi7 avatar
Yonggi7 18 May

It's an original article! Congratulations!

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10/32
Ranking
Last week's market sell-off in U.S. stocks coincided an upshot in interest rates--one of the major anchor points being increased inflation expectations. Although the recent economic forecast from the Atlanta Fed points to economic growth at 5.4%, there's reason to believe that inflation expectations are greater at the rate that we're going.
Whatever the cause of the selloff is, the scenario bodes well for the U.S. Dollar in the near term. This could create a scenario for a relatively stronger dollar as we race back up to the top.
Important to note, the EURUSD has been tumbling down, due most likely to overall market fear. In this scenario the market would eventually get back on course, as the Euro has obstinately stayed on an upward path.
GOVERNMENT SPENDING VS. NET EXPORTS
There are some significant factors to be wary of; such as, re-establishing trade in North America, and relative weakness in the U.S. economy. With the isolationist stance in America, it's hard to know if the U.S. will get back on solid footing to increase net exports, one major component to the GDP equation. Yet, there is increased federal spending. By passing the ever increasing defense spending bill this amoun…
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Lovely_bee avatar

Good luck!

pshan avatar
pshan 7 Feb.

Thank you Lovely!

Sebine avatar
Sebine 13 Feb.

Interesting article:)

pshan avatar
pshan 13 Feb.

Thanks Sebine, I'm glad you had a chance to see the article.  Much appreciated :))

hrustiashka avatar

Good article

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16/30
Ranking
Although the Euro had a hiccup with some profit-taking early in the week, there has been a sustainable rally sense and it looks like it will end the week higher. This is in light of the fact that economic sentiment data was released better than expected, and retail sales from your roll and came out better than expected as well.
There is a very good explanation for this profit-taking, the reason being, when economic news comes out better-than-expected coupled with sentiments data coming out better-than-expected that's indicates that perhaps the price needs to fall if it is in fact up.
Granted, economic news is a leading indicator, while sentiment is a lagging indicator, so when both are coming out better-than-expected that's most likely a time for profit-taking. This reason is a perfectly logical explanation, because sentiment does not affect the equation for GDP, when sentiment is coming out greater than expected, the markets will autonomously discount that factor. And, because markets are already up, it is a perfectly good reason to take profits because sentiment does not simply supply any greater factor for GDP.
Now, there's been some suspicion, with the price fall out in the U.S…
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Sebine avatar
Sebine 16 Jan.

Good job!

pshan avatar
pshan 16 Jan.

Thank you!

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16/30
Ranking
An update for the markets including money $SPX, $FXE, and $GLD:
SPX is becoming eerily quiet, definitely a market test for sentiment in the US. On the heels of some dollar strengthening off of a bottom, and that exports showing some slack. The major bullet points is going to be quotes "the greatest tax reform in our nation's history", quoting US President Trump saying this and the address and what was a very negative news tone for the day.
Taking a look at the sentiment indicator SMA, we do see freakishly high levels of positive sentiment coming from social media and texts.
This is a very bad signal for sentiment traders, we've been seeing great success over the last three years of three weeks with sentiment analysis; however, with the overbearing nature of tax reform and as the dust settles, so to speak, we should be seeing some gravity to equity index levels.
Another big picture idea is the activity and M&A, things have been for the most part, have been generally stable and encouraging. However, this must continue to sustain rich prices. At the rate that we're going, we should be seeing some strong institutional selling especially with a pronounced January effect.
Focusing on cur…
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Sebine avatar
Sebine 19 Dec.

Interesting!

JuliannaS avatar
JuliannaS 26 Dec.

Good , but I think you need more pictures in article )

Lovely_bee avatar

agree with JuliannaS)

hrustiashka avatar

Interesting!

pshan avatar
pshan 16 Jan.

Thank you! See my latest @ https://www.dukascopy.com/fxcomm/fx-article-contest/?Weekly-Update-For-Global-Currencies&action=read&id=4207 I visualize data and charts.

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17/30
Ranking
Sentiment Indicators have signaled a down week for FXE and GLD shares, which represent the ETFs for the Euro and Gold, respectively.
What's more, in the US the big talk is about passing the final details for tax reform amidst what is a huge debt crisis. The argument with this debt basis, coming off the heels of a slackening net exports figure, is can the US economy justify a substantial enough growth rate to sustain what is an alarmingly large debt balloon.
The silver lining for the time being is a floating bellwether for quality, a strengthening US dollar. It's uncertain if this will become a trend, however, it's a solid signal that the flight-to-quality trade will eventually overtake global markets. This is yet another reason why holding off investing in FXY is still a good idea. See the article titled "Holding Off Investing In FXY"
In the meantime, there's still enough road left to wager markets based on a sentiment paradigm, and that means, all else remaining equal, the Euro has a chance to rally some more until the end of the year. However, many of the factors for the Euro are in fact bleak, given a relatively less strong economy than the US, and the contingencies upon Great B…
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Sebine avatar
Sebine 12 Dec.

good job!

pshan avatar
pshan 12 Dec.

Thanks Sebine!

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41/54
Ranking
Trading with technical indicators can be profitable, but only some of the time. Since, it is more of an art and a science, charts and indicators can be hindering your overall strategy for making money. Think of someone who is successful in life, does he or she sit in front of a screen or telephone after they have received a call from a lover or friend to go out? Probably not. What if someone you liked gave you an urgent call to go out with them while you were trading, what would you do? Before you answer rationally, you may have already made your decision before you even knowing it, depending on how much you liked that person! But your successful trading plan, should help you in this scenario! Emotions are very much a part of financial markets, and learning about technical indicators that pertain to sentiment will help you understand how to make money and gauge your own emotions. That’s why I recommend learning about sentiment indicators.
Unless you are training and adapting your trading with indicators and charts, you may fall into the traps of all traders by merely losing time to the markets. although it can be dangerous to react wildly from sentiment alone, sentiment analysis c…
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Skif avatar
Skif 17 May

I agree with you ! Mood plays an important role!

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34/65
Ranking
1-Introduction:
Intraday trading is a kind of short term trading as positions are opened and closed within the daily trading session.
Most participants in the Dukascopy trading contest fill in this category of trading and rely on the 4h chart and below time frames to find opportunities in the market. They can't hold on their positions for an entire month due to the limited time of the contest which is a month period.
Intraday trading is considered to be the most rewarding kind of trading but in the same time the most risky and frustrating.
Trying to find short term opportunities is far from easy as the trader has to deal with the intraday market volatility and noise which sometimes don't make much sense. They also have to place tight stop losses as they don't plan to stick for long in the same position and so they are usually stopped out more frequently than medium and long term traders.
This article helps you understanding market moves and make sense of them.
2-How traders approach the market?
The main market approaches that traders usually undertake are technicals and fundamentals in order to make sense and justify market moves.
Technical traders rely on chart indicators or candl…
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FXRabbit avatar
FXRabbit 8 Apr.

Great Article! Thank you very much for sharing it with us and I strongly advice everyone to read it!

Verona888 avatar

good job :)

bogos avatar
bogos 9 Apr.

great job

gargantua avatar
gargantua 21 Apr.

good article

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5/46
Ranking

Sentiment is usually backward looking and is incorrect so frequently that it is used by professionals as a counter indicator of market direction. Daniel Loeb

The Forex Exchange market is the worlds largest financial market with an estimate daily turnover of over $5T, which is more than 25 times bigger than the US equity market. Although the FX market to some extent seems to be irrational because they don't follow the interest rate differential as expected. This could indicate that investor psychology plays a significant role in exchange rates fluctuations and there are consistently empirical evidence which suggest that sentiment may be the key to understanding this apparent irrationality.
Each and every trader will always have an opinion about where the market should go, and everyone will have their own explanation as to why the market is doing what is doing. Sentiment may drive trades however sentiment does not always translate into actual trades, so at times it can be deceiving.
It is what people actually did in the stock market that counted - not what they said they where going to do" Jesse Livermore

[list][/list]…
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aslamhammad avatar

nice

alifari avatar
alifari 27 Mar.

Nice article, well done..

WallStreet6 avatar

Thanks for elaborating on this very important  and too often underestimated aspect of trading

marius24 avatar
marius24 30 Mar.

I use this indicator when i am looking for trend reversals. Good work.

fso56 avatar
fso56 3 Sep.

Dear all
I can add this indicator on Jforex 3?

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41/65
Ranking
There are a lot of Forex strategies all over the
Internet. In the following series articles I am going to present briefly the most
important factor-strategies for consistent winnings.
1st Article - Strategy 1 –
Market Sentiment
The forex market is nothing more
than the compressed display of emotions at any one time emanating from
currency speculators around the world. How can you better understand the
market, and use that knowledge as one of your trading weapons? This is the
question that every trader should ask to himself. In order to give an answer to
that question we firstly need to give an answer to “What is the market
sentiment?”
Market sentiment is simply what
the majority of the market is perceived to be thinking or feeling about the
market – it is the most important factor that drives the currency market. This is so because traders tend
to act based on what they feel and think of certain currencies, regarding their
strength or weakness relative to other currencies. I will assume that when you trade
currencies, you don’t blindfold yourself to simply pick any pair to buy or
sell, leaving it to randomness to determine your profit/loss statement at the
end of the day or month. …
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AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 9 Jan.

hey great article, take a look at my profile and check out my articles I think they can help you

doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 10 Jan.

Very informative article about Market Sentiment, I would have Liked to see some charts and some Images.I believe Market Sentiment can be Better spoted on range Bars Charts(Price Movement, volatility charts). The volumes in those charts give better signals. check out my range Bars Charts Articles and Analysis.+3 And good luck this month. Waiting for your next article.

ritesh avatar
ritesh 19 Jan.

Market sentiment is above all indicators. :) +1

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19/100
Ranking
You will often hear the maxim "Don't be married to your positions". In simple terms, sometimes you are going to choose the wrong direction. That doesn't mean that you have to be unprofitable. What it means is that you have to be willing to admit you are wrong!My trading in the competition for the first 4 days has been an example of just such trading. I have been of the opinion that the EURUSD was going to fall to the 1.3150 area. It hasn't, yet, but I haven't been unprofitable either.  Take a look at my trading log here.You will see several posts where I state that I am looking for the pair to fall. However, you will also notice that on several occasions I question the tenor of a trade and the direction I need to trade. In the following chart you can see the last two trades I took. Even though I am trying to ride the price action lower, I was willing to accept that I may be wrong in the short term. The long term doesn't matter, because many things change in the long term, and I may change where I think the pair is headed. There is no magic formula, but a willingness to accept that you may be wrong is a healthy thing to have. I use the following plan to move my positions along as pr…
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rob_deniro avatar
rob_deniro 10 Dec.

Hi ikhall, thanks for the reply. Will ask some more questions, I have plenty and not many ppl to talk to about FX at all. Have a nice wkend.

ritesh avatar
ritesh 10 Dec.

Nice article, a must read I'd say. keep more coming +1

ikhall avatar
ikhall 11 Dec.

Thanks ritesh. I have enjoyed your articles as well. Seems to me they are getting better every week.

skytrader avatar
skytrader 18 Dec.

another megalike... this is the real art in trading! this is exactly the point! defending your money and also winning in situations when you are supposed to lose! i can also recommend to always have a look at different time frames and scale it down to the time frame one wants to trad ein the end. never trade against a major trend! at least when oyu are swinging. your articles show a solid fundament of knowledge. your trading looks also good. enjoy your trading in the next years! just keep control over your losses and you will succeed!

mielec avatar
mielec 19 Dec.

This is very informative art. Just like should be.there are many useful articles like this one.
All what you need to follow the rules

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8/65
Ranking

Retail Positioning-The Scary Uncle in the Room
If you could tell how the majority of retail traders were
positioned, how would you use it? Would you even care? Could you even take
advantage of it? How retail traders are positioned is often referred to as
retail-positioning, and it’s usually treated like the scary uncle we all have
and all want to forget. Yet every day we all buy into the notion that 70-90% of
traders bust their account within a year, or 3 months, or 6 weeks, the
statistics vary depending on who you talk to.
So why not understand and take advantage of that fact. For
years profitable traders have been using the COT report to see how groups of
traders are positioned. The COT has one really big drawback, it reveals the
positions days after the data is collected.
Dukascopy updates their customers positioning every half
hour, and it is accessible right from their web site. From dukascopy.com simply
follow the “Sentiment” link under the Market Watch section.
 
How should you use it though? It only makes sense that since
the majority of traders are wrong most of the time, that you would want to be
positioned against the crowd. Let’s look at GBPUSD. During overnight trade …
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ikhall avatar
ikhall 26 Nov.

If anyone has questions about how I use retail positioning, let me know!

AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 29 Nov.

Hey, I was just wondering how you could use this in a leading indicator way, as surely for a day trader 30 mins is too late?

ikhall avatar
ikhall 30 Nov.

Actually 30 minutes isn't to late for a day trader. I am a day trader and use it everyday. On the EURUSD I wait for the sentiment indicator to reach around 55% on one side or the other and I simply look for pull backs to trade into the opposite direction. EX: if retail is net long EURUSD 55% then I will look for a FastStochastic to bump the top line and sell into that hit. I'll post another article on it with pictures and a trade in the next few days.

rob_deniro avatar
rob_deniro 15 Dec.

Hi ikhall. Looking at the index now I am confused... It currently says USD 51% long, GBP 39.35% long but GBPUSD is 50.97% long... please, what does that suggest?

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