Why oil and the ruble should/can be connected? Briefly, the model is this: the exporters sell their oil for dollars and then sell dollars to get rubles for settlements within the country. The mechanism is extremely simplified, it is necessary to consider the volume of production and sale that escort is not only oil exporters do not always sell dollars on the currency exchange rate impact of Central Bank interventions, etc. Nevertheless, we assume that the model more or less work, i.e. that there are fundamental reasons for the relationship of oil prices and the ruble.
Oil Light daily chart
Russian Ruble daily chart
Both graphs give a real idea of the correlation between the price of crude oil and the ruble.
On average this correlation is in the range 0,75-0,97
Figure: did you make a wish?
Investment idea is to catch the moment when the market formed a relatively clear strengthening of oil prices on the ruble.
From time to time the market there are some inefficiencies when a barrel of oil in rubles begins to decline. Much of this market process, because the supply and demand f…