Article Library

The entire financial system is going to be put at test in an no so distant future and since Greece has been on the front stage for such a long time I think it's time to address this issues and give you my own perspective on this matters and what would be the implications of an disruptive event like Grexit.
There are many times that nothing happens for a long period of time until all of a sudden everything happens at once and what is more important the markets are paying attention and we get extreme moves like we saw last week.
For traders who operates in the FX Market it's easy to understand that Greece debt problems was that they converted their debt from drachma to euro and then the currency rose from 80 cent to $1.60 against the US dollar. This effectively doubled their debt in real terms and now servicing that debt is almost impossible without a serious debt haircut.
  • Greece Referendum

Since I'm writing this article over the weekend I have no idea what the outcome of the referendum would be. So, you may be asking yourself what is this Greece Referendum all about, and in simple words is this: Greek people are being asked to vote on whether to accept/ or not current proposal fr…
Read article
Translate to English Show original
Lyubant avatar
Lyubant 22 July


Agnessa26 avatar
Agnessa26 27 July

Good Job!

anna_n avatar
anna_n 27 July

very smart, very!

Metal_Mind avatar
Metal_Mind 27 July

This is a never ending story. It may be prolonged by the EU ,,unity sentiment,,  but in my opinion the result will probably  be an exit just one costing a few hundreds billion euros more. Great points made as always.

WallStreet6 avatar

Great article! Nice approach to the topic! Now we know that with Greece nothing is definite and there may be even more turnarounds eventhough the situation seems resolved.

orto leave comments
This article will describe this long term trading strategy, used mostly by institutional investors, highlighting rewards and risks in a simple way, to make it possible for you to use it as well. With carry trade you can make or lose money even if the price of a currency pair remains static for a long time. It will also help you understand the reasons behind some of the market's moves, especially during volatile and risk-off periods.____________________ ► What is carry trade? Even though it's possible to have carry trades in a variety of financial instruments and investments, the basic premise is the same. Positive carry trade occurs when someone borrows an asset with low interest rates to finance the investment in an asset with a higher return. For example, borrowing money at 2%, and then investing the funds in an asset that pays 5%. This is easily done in the Forex market, because currencies are traded in pairs, so a positive carry trade is obtained when a trader buys ("carries") a high interest rate currency (for example, AUD), and sells a low interest rate one, such as JPY. Negative carry trade, as expected, is the opposite. This situation happens when the yield of holding an…
Read article
Translate to English Show original
bmg avatar
bmg 30 Oct.

Good article

brazandeh avatar
brazandeh 16 Dec.

You really are a Special FX!.Thank you so much for the clarification

SpecialFX avatar
SpecialFX 17 Dec.

You are welcome brazandeh, I am glad you liked it! :)

brazandeh avatar
brazandeh 22 July

Is it rally possible to get pips by carry trade?If I understand it correctly, so as a position to be profitable , the value of positive carry trade must be higher than the spread of that instrument and at the same time the direction of that position must be in favor of the market.Am I right or did I miss something?

FXRabbit avatar
FXRabbit 14 Sep.

Thank you for writing this article and sharing it with us!

orto leave comments

 EUR is the must liquid currency.
It is used by 17 Europe-member countries.
It is the most traded currency.
It is the most predictable currency.
It is quoted with a very low spread by most Forex brokers (especially
when  quoted with USD).
It is the first choice of any good scalper, or EA coder, etc.
I was taught, as beginners in this business, to go for the
green pips (profits) irrespective of the currency direction. The basic
guide is to avoid a fight with the MAJOR TREND. 
Forget all the rhetoric from the Eur councils: doubling, or
tripling the bailout funds, etc. 
The fact remains that EUR is like a sick baby on a LIFE-AID
machine! Any time their major donors decide to withhold their credit line, the
single currency will be in a big disaster. Let me hold it there for now.
Just as a 'Forex guru' will never run out of new indicators/Alert
for sale to novice traders who refuse to learn, so shall a good Forex trader
 continue to blessed and multiply his profits as long as the crisis
When I say risk aversion in Forex trading, I simply
means  tra…
Read article
Translate to English Show original
MEKUS avatar
MEKUS 10 May

Hi RobertBric,thank you for your comment. I had been very busy with my live trading, (managed accounts).This is a seasonal and position trade. An experienced trader, who is fully aware of EUR crisis need not wait for a '3 consecutive wins' before you conclude. As regards the 3000 pips, EURUSD has dropped 372 pips, while EURJPY has lost 379 pips which sums up to 751 pips so far.For your information, Commercial traders hedge all their positions!Currently,they are heavily short on EUR. 'Once every one has has sold...' is baseless in fx trading.Its the Commercial traders that are driving EUR down

scramble avatar
scramble 11 May

overall an interesting point of view.
by my side, i would not try to make a kind of prediction in any pair, mostly in EURO. From a technical point of view EU could also rise up those 3000 pips after clearing something near lows now soon.
i agree with doctortyby: would aprreciate some charts. just my opinion.
good luck n trade well

MrSami avatar
MrSami 12 May

this is a 3 year target, while 1.50 holds..
interesting article... good luck +6

positive avatar
positive 17 May

Hi Mekus - Though I do not agree with your point of view ,I like your article because these type of articles are the ones which really set up good debates. 2700 - 3000 range always remained attractive for institutions to do bottom fishing.

alifari avatar
alifari 19 May

I agree, everything is possible in recent market conditions +1

orto leave comments
Between last week and this week, there have been some very interesting movements in the currency market that have reflected a change in global investor sentiment. With another bout of risk-aversion taking over the financial markets related to the global economic outlook, some of the USD and JPY crosses were significant beneficiaries of this renewed flight to safety in the `absence` of the Swiss Franc. A look at the movements in the GBP USD, the EURO USD and the EURO JPY (trade update) will highlight these developments which can provide short-term to long-term trading profits.RISK-AVERSION TRADES   EURO USD   After consolidating within a large Pennant for the last few months, the EURO USD finally broke out of its period indecision that was likely due to developments unfolding in Europe and the United States. Sparked on by the negative job situation in the United States and talk of the need for European banks to prepare for a default by Greece, flight to safety flows led to the break of support at around 1,4070 and the major uptrend line of the Monthly Chart. DAILY CHART – BREAKOUT CANDLEWEEKLY CHART MONTHLY CHART If this breakout continues, we would not only be in a new downt…
Read article
Translate to English Show original
LinnuxFX avatar
LinnuxFX 15 Sep.

Another great article, with good images, comment mine here :

Livornese avatar
Livornese 18 Sep.

Like your technicality! Thumb up!!!

DaddyPapi avatar
DaddyPapi 18 Sep.

Thanks Livonese

NagarajaAdiga avatar

Very interesting trend line analysis. As most of the visitors are short term traders, would you put hourly, 4 hour and daily chart? it would help everyone. liked it.

DaddyPapi avatar
DaddyPapi 19 Sep.

Yes I understand most are short-term traders. Even though I strongly discourage that type of trading I will mention next time when to look for short-term trades on those charts. Thanks for suggestion

orto leave comments