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RBA Interest Rate Decision
In the meeting held on 5th September the RBA kept the interest rates unchanged at 1.5 % but gave much more positive indications about growth in economy. As per recent economic data inflation is expected to rise gradually, business investments is picking up, employment growth has become stronger, though labor hours remains week. The various forward-looking indicators point to continued growth in employment over the period ahead. Economic growth is still expected to increase gradually over the next couple of years to a little above 3%.
RBA MEETINGS MINUTE
In recent meeting held on 1st August RBA kept interest rates unchanged but gave much more positive indications about growth in economy. Governor Lowe said, business investments have picked up, employment growth has become stronger, though Wage growth remains low, however, and this is likely to continue for a while yet. Inflation is expected to increase gradually as the economy strengthens. The various forward-looking indicators point to continued growth in employment over the period ahead. He said, economic growth is still expected to increase gradually over the next couple of years to above 3%.
House Pric…
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RahmanSL avatar
RahmanSL 13 Sep.

wow...pretty concise fundamental analysis for the Aussie Dollar : )

FXRabbit avatar
FXRabbit 15 Sep.

Good article as always!

anvifx avatar
anvifx 23 Sep.

nice article

Natalia_Kisenko avatar

Great article!

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35/58
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Before the RBA Rate Statement

The Friday before the RBA was a tough day for fundamental analyst traders who solely based their trading on the NFP report that came in at 151K, 21K below expectation. The AUD/USD was only bullish in the first five minutes and then turned around to the downside to the 0.74500 psychological support level maintained earlier in the European Session.
Chart 1: AUD/USD 5MIN
Some of the explanations of the behavior of the USD included;
  • The huge impact from the Jackson Hole Symposium that provided a huge boost to the dollar
  • The new home sales and durable goods report that beat their expectation also provided a boost to the USD though to a less extent
  • Finally, Janet Yellen’s expectations of the rate hike based on the speech delivered Jackson Hole were her conclusion about the US economy was
    the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months.

In Australia, we saw the AUD show strength against the USD with the start Asian session on Tuesday ahead of the RBA. All traders seemed confident that the rate would be maintained since it had been cut by RBA in the month earlier. Furthermore, the reports of the private capital expenditure…
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FXRabbit avatar
FXRabbit 15 Sep.

Good article!

GUANYINDIZI avatar

i can't see the charts ...??

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17/52
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Review of the last week
Beginning last week marked the continuation of pressure on the dollar for the last nfp who was disappointed and I went out to the data of only 38k in relation to the expected 165k. But as Sunday progressed dollar is coming back all the losses and the finals Sunday press the advantage in relation to other currencies.
Although the euro was one of the currencies that have strengthened the most against the dollar in the nfp despite good data that marked last week and especially more than expected gdp in the EU, euro is start to loosing momentum on the end of the week. Reason for that we can find in brexit polls where Britons will decide to stay in EU or not. Last polls shows that ,,leave” have some advantage and that bring risk for both UK and EU. Because of that euro and pound was on the big pressure on the two last days of the week.
Usdcad was very choopy last week and the main reason for that is that oil was on the crucial resistance and some false breakout and bouncing from resistance level of 51.6$ lead huge volatility on usdcad. This pair fall around 150 pips last week but that can be worst for usd because in the last two days usd recover on almost all …
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Sennna88 avatar
Sennna88 16 June

Great and detailed analysis. What is your opinion of this pair after Australian employment report ?

klintons avatar
klintons 16 June

Perfect

JuliannaS avatar
JuliannaS 25 June

Detailed and good written .  I like to read it

Olkiss70 avatar
Olkiss70 25 June

very nice

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23/59
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Review of last week
Last week began with the BOJ meeting minutes which was not volatile for the yen pairs and we got the conclusion that the economy of Japan improving gradualy, however it did not help the yen to be held in relation to other currencies and was the weakest currency in the last week among the majors. In the EU we had weak data particularly in the industrial production and GDP of EU, which was below expectations, while perhaps the only positive point was that Germany had somewhat better than expected inflation and trade balance that far exceeded expectations. Also, the euro was one of the weakest currencies and compared to usd fell and broke through some key supports.
On Thursday we had the BoE, pound was very choppy but after expectations of lower inflation and moderate dovish stance of Carney continued to decline. Rise of oil prices in the last week did not help commodity currencies and they were all in the red compared to usd. Based on the above, we conclude that the US dollar was the strongest currency in the last week after a week of declined from the low this year.
This week we will analyze one of the commodity currency compared to usd which is now in a very st…
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bokafx avatar
bokafx 29 May

Good view on AUD and nice article

Nika_1952 avatar

Good professional look.

Helena_Prekrasnaj avatar

good analysis and almost a sure forecast))

fxsurprise8 avatar

nice

Govagent avatar
Govagent 1 June

Good article ^_^

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3/59
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1. Introduction.
Le présent article propose une étude prospective d'évolution à moyen terme du dollar australien au travers de trois paires de devises : AUD/USD, EUR/AUD et AUD/JPY. Nous passerons en revue, dans un premier temps, l'état de l'économie australienne, ses forces et ses faiblesses et terminerons par une analyse graphique des paires de devises dont mention ci-avant.


2. Aspect économique
.

L’économie australienne a connu une croissance de 3,5% l'an tout au long de ces vingt dernières années conjuguée à une inflation contrôlée. Le taux de chômage reste encore aujourd'hui très bas, à moins de 6%.
La dette publique reste modéré, à moins de 30 % du produit intérieur brut. A titre comparatif, la dette publique du Japon s'élève à 250% de son PIB, celle des États-Unis a atteint 105% et pour la zone Euro, 86% de son PIB. La croissance économique que l'Australie a connu, s'explique avant tout par la forte demande de la Chine en matières premières. Certes, le secteur des services génère à lui seul 80% du PIB australien contre 10% pour les matières premières mais ce secteur a soutenu toute l'économie par les profits et investissements qu'il a généré dans tous les autres secteurs d…
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MR_KHALEDBADRY avatar

very good Article

Milian avatar
Milian 27 May

interesting article!)

williamb avatar
williamb 28 May

detailed and accurate

Faster avatar
Faster 29 May

Good

PipPoint avatar
PipPoint 3 June

nice

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4/53
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Introduction

The understanding of fundamental and technical factors affecting a currency pair will be critical for the success of any trader. Whilst fundamental analysis will give the general direction of the trend in the medium to long term, the technical analysis will give the trader indications and signals of entry and exit.
This article takes a look at some of the fundamental factors from Australia affecting the Australian dollar. Technical analysis of the AUDUSD is also performed.
Monetary policy
  • Australia.
In the monetary policy meeting by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on the 7th of July 2015, the central bank left the cash rate unchanged at a record low of 2%. Fig 1 below shows the interest rates in Australia.
Fig 1: Australia Interest Rates
In the statement, the policymakers were of the view that the monetary policy needed to be accommodative since the economy is likely to be operating with a degree of spare capacity. To this end the record lows interest rates will likely remain in place.
  • USA
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to start increasing its policy rate later this year, but some other major central banks are continuing to ease policy. Thoug…
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lelipuzik avatar
lelipuzik 28 Aug.

i like it!)

Yulia_Krasitskaya avatar

good job, respect)

davidrubin avatar
davidrubin 28 Aug.

very useful

Margoshka avatar
Margoshka 30 Aug.

great !!!!)))

anna_n avatar
anna_n 31 Aug.

you are great guru!

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11/29
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This article is a continuation and a reproduce of my recent blog post series were I was trying to give my own view on the major currency pairs for this year but I never got the change to finish it, so I though it may be a good idea to write an article were to cover this subject. Keep in mind this is just my personal opinion and my own plan for this year, it may or may not work out, flexibility is key, because things can change very fist in today's market.
  • USD/JPY Outlook
I'm going to give out my Fx Market Outlook for this year and I'm going to start with my favorite currency pair: Japanese Yen. I want to take the time to go through all the major currency pairs and give my personal outlook for 2014.
We know that currently the YEN pairs is all about Abenomics market policies. The "Abenomics effect" have had a huge impact to revive Japan's economy, strengthening consumer consumer spending. Although many have doubted the market policies of Japan's new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe are working very well: stock market is booming, real estate prices are rising, and retail sales are also rising. So far "Abenomics" has been a huge success, and this is very supportive for the current USD/JPY
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Schaolin avatar
Schaolin 22 Jan.

good job and good luck

Daytrader21 avatar

@Metal Mind thanks buddy I hope everything is good on your side.

Daytrader21 avatar

@Decebal & @Schaolin Thanks guys

Jignesh avatar
Jignesh 1 Feb.

Really good article. I love the USD/JPY Fractal. It scares me a bit how I've been looking at the same pairs with almost the exact same analysis! The only difference in my analysis is that I'm looking at the GBP/CAD rather than the GBP/USD. Good Job on the article and best wishes on your trades for 2014

Daytrader21 avatar

@jignesh thanks man, The thing with having a long term view is to be very flexible as this days central banks around the world tend to change and adjust their market policy to the new the economic threats, see for example recent emerging market crisis and how central banks reacted.

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20/43
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Introduction:The Australian Dollar is perhaps one the most popular pairs for traders, its nature is fairly simple and provides good opportunities for scalpers and swing traders alike. Crucially in this world with no yield, AUD can pocket you ~3% a year, great for some investors.Because of this yield, the AUD is very prone to changes in risk sentiment and therefore on an intra-day basis is highly correlated to US and European Stock indices. However, the most alarming thing about this pair is the lack of activity in recent weeks, especially since the start of October where the average Rate of Change has been under 1% per day. This compared with the same time last year where there were times of +2% per day.Long Term:As shown here, AUDUSD is at a crucial checkpoint, as in the next few days to weeks the Aussie will breakout and set the trend for the next 6 months or so. While technically the trendlines are neutral there is a bearish divergence suggesting there is a greater chance of a downside move. However this is entirely subjective to the moves that will be see is US equities. More so a member of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has said this;RBA John Edwards - " The currency is m…
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AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 17 Dec.

Price action is still in consolidation, the levels mentioned above are getting even more crucial, furthermore on a side note AUD CoT positioning is extremely long which means a sharp fall in risk can cause some heavy long covering and stop tripping.

AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 26 Dec.

AUD broke down lower - but has stalled at 50% fib level and has held 200MA this is likely to be the case until Next year. So 1.043 seems like a decent target as that's a monthly pivot and as such could be a good way to end December.

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