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In my prevous article dedicated to the euro I wrote about the coming recession. I thought the 1.274 level would be forbidding, but the price went higher. So the short term scenario is changed, but mid an long term are steady. The Euro will fall to 1.15 before 2013. Optimism is beyond the limit. Theese weeks are the last bullish weeks of the June-September uptrend Markets were too optimistic before Bernanke's speech and QE3 anouncing. They became more optimistic after that. Weekly surveys show about 30% of bulls on the dollar index, I guess there are less than 10% of them on daily charts. Market optimists can't understand obvious things: Bernanke promised $40 billions per month, the issue is that hundred billions of debt piramids are crushing every month and 40 billions is like a drop in the ocean... The invisible hand of market is still beating them.Both euro and dollar index are charting the ending diagonal. My mistake was that I saw the diagonal on the dollar index, but didn't on the euro. I forecasted level 80+- for DX on July 13, but I didn't understood that 80 on the DX would be equal to 1.30+- on the Euro/Dollar. The ending diagonal makes the target 1.06 more reliable.The DX.…
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Tom avatar
Tom 22 Sep.

Thanks, it's going to be a great bear market!

Alya7276 avatar
Alya7276 25 Sep.

Was a bit disappointed with your webinar, hope you`ll do your best next time!

fasolinka avatar
fasolinka 25 Sep.

good article

Tom avatar
Tom 27 Sep.

Apti, yes, Czech Republic is great!
Albert, it's very funny, but everybody is very optimistic...
Alya7276, I've made something interesting for the next time...

voskeat avatar
voskeat 28 Sep.

suddenly for me my macroeconomics lector agreed with your point of view.

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9/35
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Introduction: QE stands for Quantitative easing, A tranche of Monetary policy employed by Central Banks to Lower interest rates and in turn boost the economy. In short, this is achieved by the New money being used to buy financial assets likes bonds or Mortgage backed securities (MBS) which with a rising price forced on by the relentless buying will force the yield lower. A great article explaining more about QE can be found here by Scramble. This method has been used a handful of times in economic history, notably by the Bank of Japan a decade ago when they faced the possibility of a Keynesian liquidity trap and deflation. However in the last 5 years it has been used by the US, UK, and the Eurozone. In the US, there have been 3 rounds of QE, it first came about right after the financial crisis in late 2008 at which point the Federal Reserve started purchasing MBS’s. Alongside cutting the base rate to almost zero, it increased its balance sheet by around $1.4 Trillion. Then in late 2010 it came out with QE2 with an aim to buy $600 Billion of treasuries. Most importantly is in the last few days – 13th September – the Federal Reserve announced “QE3” "To support a stronger economic…
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Tsandes avatar
Tsandes 22 Sep.

Great article! Good luck I hope for the best.

alifari avatar
alifari 24 Sep.

good read

LinnuxFX avatar
LinnuxFX 26 Sep.

Nice article, good new start, hope you keep your articles at your best level...

captain avatar
captain 27 Sep.

Very imformative article.

doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 27 Sep.

US QE3 Infinity... Hyperinflation

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20/35
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The EUR/USD is the most popular and technically easy currency pair on Forex market. I recommend this pair every rookie trader. As to me the first thing newbie should do on market is choosing forecasting instruments.I started trading in 2005 (when I was only 15). In 2006 I discovered Elliott wave principle for myself, I learned it and made many useful and correct forecasts. For example when gold price was only $600-700 I advised my parents and relatives to buy several gold bars (50 and 100 grams). And they all took my advice. Now gold costs about 1650-1700 and according to my new forecast it gonna grow to $2000, $5000 and $15000 before 2018.My next forecasting instrument is a public opinion. I mean various surveys, bullish percent and sentiment indexes. It's not too easy to make a right short-term forecast without any sentiment index.Just look on this weekly euro surveys. Sentiment indexes are good oversold/overbought indicators, more correct and accurate than every mathematic indicators.And the third one is a cycle analysis. You could predict price levels using Elliott waves with sentiment indexes, for time forecasting you should use a cycle analysis.This article is dedicated to th…
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voskeat avatar
voskeat 28 Sep.

nice article

Tom avatar
Tom 28 Sep.

thank you.
If you mean the trade cycle reversal window it's from 25.09 to 5.10, so we are in the window.
I think, that low has been shown.

Victoria avatar
Victoria 30 Sep.

I'm not sure that euro will fall without divergences

fasolinka avatar
fasolinka 30 Sep.

Very interesting article, good luck!

Ararat avatar
Ararat 30 Sep.

Hope you`ll win, really appreciate it

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