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Trading is simply predicting. We all predict the moves and make trades and stats show that majority loses and few people earn money. Just watch trading contests, 600-700 participants and around 130-130 people were able to increase their equity. İn real trading accounts there are more losers and less winners. Did all the losing traders made false prediction? Partly they are. Personal experience and observation showed that mostly do correct prediction of support and resistance, trends and patterns, also beginning of the price move. Let’s take an example of last GBPUSD move from 14 august till 4 September. And make some simple analyse and prediction.
We decide that because of natural disaster and Korea conflict will push GBP up for some time. But because of rate hikes, also political situation in UK GBP is under pressure and will fall soon.
You can see we have trend we have support and resistance zones. And view about price move. We make a buy here and wait. What happens? Cool! Price moves up.
Great! It moves as we predicted. We close our buy position and start selling. But price moves up and hits stop loss order. We sell again and again. We believe market shows fake breakout or ano…
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Rumpel6tilkin avatar

very helpfull!

olya2517 avatar
olya2517 26 Sep.

nice work

Natalia_Kisenko avatar

Good article!

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 29 Sep.

A great article!

Lady_in_Red avatar

good job

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Nearly all Major Financial institutions around the world issue 1 Month, 3 Month, 6 Month, 1 Year Forecasts so on and so on. They issue these for nearly every asset class from US 10 years - S&P500 - EURUSD etc.But seeing as this is primarily filled with Forex Traders I thought I would share with you the forecasts for the major FX pairs so I will start by showing you the Forecast Curves Mean for all the main contributors from around the world from banks like; UBS, Deutsche bank, Goldman Sachs, Barclays for example.EURUSDWe'll start off with the EURUSD Forecasts, the Green Dashed line shows the mean forecast for the different lengths of time, with the two Purple lines showing the Min/Max forecasts from all the contributors. We can see that the majority of analysts believe the EUR will depreciate vs. the USD 1 Month Mean - 1.3090 / 1 Month High - 1.3450 / 1 Month Low - 1.273 Month Mean - 1.2930 / 3 Month High - 1.3780 / 3 Month Low - 1.226 Month Mean - 1.2790 / 6 Month High - 1.3700 / 6 Month Low - 1.1612 Month Mean - 1.2690 / 12 Month High - 1.3700 / 12 Month Low - 1.12This Shows the historical rolling 1 month mean rate vs. the EURUSD spot rate with the Spread shown in the lower tab. …
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scramble avatar
scramble 29 Jan.

very interesting about AUD USD! overall another great article! :)

bmg avatar
bmg 30 Jan.

nice article

belman avatar
belman 31 Jan.

Good article +1

doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 31 Jan.

If you were the head of a major bank, would you give for free your forecasts for the retail traders to profit from? Or would you try to mess up with their heads by offering mixed forecasts? :)

AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 1 Feb.

While you wouldn't expect them to give anythintg useful for free (or anyone for that matter) they publish these as a way to attract clients (or more precisely their money). So it is in their interest to get some right, especially when with the Nomura example when they 15mio exposure.

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There are plenty of websites publishing and forums discussing
about forecast on currency pair’s possible moves. Though some of them make
deliberate method to explain reasons for current situation and possible
reaction for upcoming events but most of them put very complicated, colorful diagrams,
trendlines, moving averages etc. which appears to be sophisticated analysis for
new comers. By which they will try to attract many visitors to their web page
that gives them benefit of revenue generation by advertisements. To name a few
of the websites are Actionforex, Forexmillion, Forexcycle, Forexstreet, etc.
and still many. The only intention of these website is to attract maximum users
and from where the traffic is coming from.
Inexperienced traders who are having less than 2 years of experience,
in the beginning of their career they will try to find what others are talking
about the currency pairs and economic events. They will always keep a watch on those
above mentioned websites. After reading those analysis and predictions they
will have something in their mind it can be some target numbers for e.g. some
predictor says Eurusd will reach so and so levels after the economic events and…
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prashanth111 avatar

fantastic ! good advice

iskandar avatar
iskandar 25 May

I agree!

james333 avatar
james333 28 May

yes, I think you are absolutely right !

guruprasad_ssy avatar

creative article

guruprasad_ssy avatar

I wish you to continue with many topics

orto leave comments