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17/47
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The British consumer confidence has suffered its biggest drop in more than 20 years.
Post referendum sentiment unveils doubts over how the British economy will behave as non-EU member.
A survey by market research group GfK revealed a deep fall in the confidence among consumers from -1 to -9, as shown in the Infographic (source: www.gfk.com).
The details of Britain’s exit are murky, at best. There are a lot of uncertainties over the period where the Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty will be triggered.
Unless these questions are answered and a clear path forward emerges, the pound outlook will remain posed for the downside.
There appears to be little in the way of technical support to stop the currency from breaching several support areas in the months ahead.
Property prices in the UK and in London specifically, have come under pressure in the run-up to the EU referendum, as well as following it.
Dukascopy Research products [1] revived that:

June was the worst month in seven years period for the Britain’s builders since construction PMI entered a
contraction territory, (...) slipping to 46.0 points, from 51.2 (...)
Mark Carney highlighted (...) [that the] central bank would have to provide more[/that]
[/1]…
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Sveetlana avatar
Sveetlana 29 July

interesting...

voldemar avatar
voldemar 29 July

nice article

fxsurprise8 avatar

interesting views fella :)

Yulia10 avatar
Yulia10 31 July

good job

FXRabbit avatar
FXRabbit 26 Aug.

Very interesting article!

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21/66
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1.0 Introduction

GBP has depreciated in the 7 months up to February substantially. This was most conspicuous on the GBP/JPY pair which
was down by over 20% and GBP/USD pair which has dropped by over 12% and reached a 7 year low at 1.3835. Afterwards
the GBP has bounced back up to around 161 and 1.44 and is currently trading at around 159 and 1.41 respectively.
The two main factors determining it’s further trend direction for the upcoming months will be the potential Bank of England’s interest rate decision as well as the referendum taking place on June 23rd and being decisive on whether United Kingdom will stay or leave the EU.
1.1 EU Referendum
The Fitch Ratings agency has issued a report stating that Brexit would “drive short-term disruption and long-term risks” and that the “precise impact would be highly uncertain”.The referendum factor is solely political and unpredictable, although BoE Governor Mark Carney has reassured that additional liquidity will be provided to the banking sector before and after the referendum in order to avoid any potential insolvency problems. However, as the campaign unveils we will probably see many turnarounds in polls and predictions and this wil…
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Daytrader21 avatar

Good job!!

WallStreet6 avatar

Thanks!

Goodini avatar
Goodini 1 Apr.

good article

driven avatar
driven 2 Apr.

Interesting article. Well done!

Kivetat avatar
Kivetat 19 Apr.

Very good job)))) Thank u for this informative and interesting article))))

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30/76
Ranking

ECB decided to leave rates unchanged in its last meeting in January. Reporting Fergal O'Brien [1],
ECB President Mario Draghi has said the Governing Council will review its stimulus in March amid signs that falling
oil prices will push the euro region’s inflation rate back to zero.

Euro unemployment rate decreased from 10.5% to 10.4% last December, bringing tiny signs of relief for ECB Governing Council. Unemployment rate dropped in Germany to 6.2%, the lowest level since 2013. In the opposite side Finland sees its unemployment rate jumping to 9.5%.
Reporting Chris Williamson [2], Chief Economist at Markit, January’s
Rates of growth continued to diverge markedly, (...) Italy’s growth rate looks to have slipped to just 0.3% and France,
once again the laggard, has returned to stagnation,

while Spain lead the gains with PMI signalling 0.75% growth rate.
Although some Euro zone economies are delivering a sustainable growth, other ones are still providing signs of concerns with steady growth, narrowing stagnation. Facing a mixed economic environment, markets will sharply watch ECB next meeting, holding for super (Mario) stimulus, levelling expectations into a supplementary purchase package.[/2][/1]…
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Nihad avatar
Nihad 24 Feb.

Super MARIO and what the YELLIN' is all about. Thx for this interesting outlook

fx_lmcap avatar
fx_lmcap 24 Feb.

Thanks!

Tasha_Mk avatar
Tasha_Mk 25 Feb.

good luck!!!

Melody avatar
Melody 25 Feb.

Nice report!

Govagent avatar
Govagent 25 Feb.

This is useful, thanks. saves me the effort of searching some information, great job ^_^

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18/76
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INTRODUCTION

The begin of 2016 has brought volatility back into markets, particularly alongside pound currency pairs. Low economic figures unveiling a decrease in construction sector, inflation underlying targeted values, and Philip Hammond, British Foreign Secretary saying that “no work has been done to prepare for possible” [1] Brexit, are among the main reasons for pound underperformance.
Reporting Lukanyo Mnyanda, Chiara Albanese and Stefania Spezzati [2]
The pound is quickly running out of friends. And its biggest enemies see the British currency falling to levels last seen during the reign of Margaret Thatcher.

Facing a high volatility in this first month of 2016, pound currency pairs we’re within trader’s best selection to keep a keen eye. In spite of a high volatility and a declared downward tendency against some of its major rivals, pound trading disengaged a lot of opportunities. Betting that this scenario was shared amid a huge part of the community, this article emerges as a second chapter of the first one released in the previous month, aiming to point out daily amplification reference values for pound trading – 3 currency pairs, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY and GBP/CAD in the year of [/2][/1]…
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Tasha_Mk avatar
Tasha_Mk 25 Feb.

thank u for information!

Melody avatar
Melody 25 Feb.

Great article)

Govagent avatar
Govagent 25 Feb.

Nice, kinda gimme an insight. Used to be my favorite currency on trading ^_^

miriam1313 avatar
miriam1313 26 Feb.

I like GBP, using pairs with GBP in contest.

FX90 avatar
FX90 29 Feb.

good article

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17/53
Ranking
The announcement
The Bank of England has decided to change it’s communication form and has squeezed in many releases into one announcement starting this month. The previous form of communicating was criticized for being inconsistent as information was divided into many releases across two weeks interval.
For the first time under the new order information was provided on the 6th of August. The Monetary Policy Committee vote took place as well as the minutes report, both on one day. The Monetary Policy Committee has voted against a rate hike with the votes divided 1 to 8, with 1 for and 8 against.
The consensus was at 2 to 9 with Ian McCafferty and Martin Weale voting for and possibly a third person as well. This outcome was disappointing for the market. The minutes have shown that there is a divide when it comes to the time of starting to cut down on the QE program. Additionally the inflation report was provided. The forecasts concerning inflation rate have been lowered for the rest of the year. The 2015 forecast has been lowered from 0.6% to 0.3%. It has also been mentioned that the downward pressures from low energy prices may persist until mid 2016. Howoever, by that time inflat…
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al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 29 Aug.

Useful information, very well explained and written. Nice job!

WallStreet6 avatar

Thanks:)

Olga18375 avatar
Olga18375 29 Aug.

Interesting post! Good job)

foreignexchange avatar

great

Margoshka avatar
Margoshka 30 Aug.

))yes!great

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17/38
Ranking
This is part 2 of my article. You can read part 1 by clicking HERE or just check out my profile. Here’s where we left off our story last time. September 4th 1992 As Europe’s Crisis intensifies, Europe’s Finance Ministers and Central Bankers gather in London for a meeting. Norman Lamont’s job was to convince Helmut Schlesinger, the President of the Bundesbank, to lower German rates. On an awkward dinner meeting, Norman Lamont bluntly asked Helmut Schlesinger to cut interest rates the very next Monday. There was no introduction, it sounded more like a demand asking for a favour. The Bundesbank President wouldn’t agree to a cut in German interest rates. Four times Norman Lamont repeated his request.Helmut SchlesingerHelmut Schlesinger recalls how he felt in that moment: ‘’As a member of the Bundesbank one is an independent person, one cannot be treated as an employee. It’s not possible. I cannot accept it. And I thought he’s not my master. I must bring this exercise to an end’’.As a furious Schlesinger prepared to storm out, Germany’s finance minister intervened and asked Norman Lamont to end the discussion. Schlesinger made it clear to the British that they had to either increase int…
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AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 22 June

Incredible article you've written here, brings back so many interesting memories for me as I can remember those days so well. Shame I wasn't on an FX desk but merely fixed income but it was still super exciting.

geula4x avatar
geula4x 23 June

+1 Liked: A very interesting read! Happy trading this week :-)

nilsaedagar avatar

Really informative article))+1 Liked

deliriou5 avatar
deliriou5 26 June

Brilliant article! :)

fxsurprise8 avatar

Unfortunately I'm still encountering the issue with the pictures so half of my articles have the charts/pics missing. If anyone has any suggestions how to fix this please let me know. I've let Dukascopy know about the issue months ago but they haven't provided a fix yet.

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12/33
Ranking
“It takes courage to be a pig,” is Stanley Druckenmiller’s motto. He has a yellow porcelain pig named Jerome sitting on his desk to remind him of this. Druckenmiller is one of the best currency traders of all time but a lot of people probably have no idea who he is. His net worth as of March 2013 is 2.8 billion dollars. Forbes has Stanley Druckenmiller listed as the 168th richest person in America. He has a fleet of over 12 different vehicles that are kept at his home at Southampton. He owns a multi-million dollar business jet, a Bombardier Global Express BD-700. From 1988 to 2000, he managed money for George Soros as the lead portfolio manager for the Quantum Fund. His most infamous trade is his bet against the Pound in 1992. While most people credit the trade to Soros, the actual idea came from Druckenmiller, Soros only encouraged him to take a bigger position. Stanley Druckenmiller with Soros in the background George Soros encourages Stanley Druckenmiller to trade bigger Druckenmiller recalls how Soros pushed him to trade bigger: ‘’As an example, shortly after I had started working for Soros, I was very bearish on the dollar and put on a large short position against the Deuts…
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AlligatorEffect avatar

Great article! Really good reading

Likerty avatar
Likerty 21 May

thats a surprising approach:)))

Daytrader21 avatar

Nice presentation, first time I ever heard of Stanley Druckenmiller was when I've read Market Wizards, he is definitely one of the best FX traders. There are things one can learn from him, lets not forget that he had a great mentor George Soros

fxsurprise8 avatar

Thanks everyone for the kind words! Part 2 is ready and will be posted soon. I tried to post it in May but it says I got to wait for the June contest in 3 days?

I think I made a mistake by registering for the June contest, now I can't post articles in May's contest anymore.

driven avatar
driven 2 May

You don't have to be stupid to be a politician, but it helps.

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