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In the past couple of years, political developments have been important drivers of currency prices. The pound dropped like a bound and chained mafia victim against the dollar when the BREXIT vote materialized on June 23 2016—a vote which meant that the UK would have to cut its current ties with the EU at some point into the future.
Chart: On June 23 2016, the GBP/USD reached a low of 1.323 (high on the same day: 1.5020) after the BREXIT referendum result.

In the meantime the EUR/USD has been going up whenever US President Trump fails at to pass a bill or manages to pass it but a whole lot of people find themselves tangled at the side of the building, feet up as a result. In this case, we are referring to the Healthcare bill. That is in early 2017. On the day President Trump got elected, the EUR/USD experienced a significant drop, similar with the one after the BREXIT vote.
Then there’s the French Presidential elections conundrum. The EUR/USD gapped up by 200 pips after the elections round Sunday on April 23, which resulted in Macron and Le Pen candidates moving on to the final round. The pair found support at above 1.08, without ever closing the gap, and even reached 1.10. All o…
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zarina avatar
zarina 12 May

все-таки неопределенность с направлением так и осталась ((

TheAnalyst avatar

Well, not so much short-term. in my view, it stopped the ascent after the end of the political event (in this case the French elections) and is going down to around 1.0750(referring to the EUR/USD). Long-term is a more of a wait-and-see, although I'd say bias might favorite the upside. As always I could be wrong, of course.

Skif avatar
Skif 17 May

I think the euro is at least 1.1500 , pounds 1.3500 .

TheAnalyst avatar

There's certainly a lot of buying in the EUR/USD, but I am not as certain yet. Cable looks better positioned for a continuous ascent, I'd say towards 1.33. Above 1.132 for the EUR/USD then I'd be expecting to see 1.1570 next.

Skif avatar
Skif 17 May

I agree, but I think ahead is still summer. So I'm waiting for a more aggressive rally

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Market got it all wrong AGAIN?
US elections were indeed one of a few occasions to earn a lot of money in a short period of time. Suprisingly for many, President Trump's words of this being Brexit times 10 or 50 turned out to be prophetic in every aspect - we had polls predicting false again, incredibly brutal moves on every market, and general upset of many investors, coinciding with nervous trades.
The reaction of the market was also not quite among confident ones - the market went back and forth as a result of the election. All the panic was erased by the President-elect speech, even as it was just words, suprisingly markets tended to signal they fully believe Mr Trump. We have reactions being overly pessimistic or enthusiastic all the time since then. From the movement shown above it is like switching from belief that it is end of the world to the belief that a new President will ba a savior for all the US, if not world...
Also the reaction on peso was crazy:
The price movements ranged even up to over 12% in a few days' time! Looks like people have forgotten that the President does not decide on everything alone, plus any tariffs or US regulations do not mean the end for Mexico.…
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rupesh1984 avatar
rupesh1984 18 Nov.

market love Putin and Trump :)

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 19 Nov.

Excellent work!

FXRabbit avatar
FXRabbit 23 Nov.

Let's see how the markets do in February of next year.

brilliant avatar
brilliant 24 Nov.

interesting nice article

hrustiashka avatar

Interesting

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