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As we are in the middle of April where we had a lot of interesting events on the forex and how we approach the end of the month we will have a growing excitement and a wealth of events that could change the trends since the beginning of the year. As noted in the previous article Forex Weekly Outlook - Still selling dollars , announced a series of articles and explain in what way I processed themes and this week we continue with a detailed technical and fundamental analysis of the two currency pairs as well as with giving my opinion on how it will continue to move. In selecting the two currency pairs especially want to hear the requirements of members of the community who can write in a comment on the article that the pair want to analyze. the most interesting currency pairs that had significant changes by events or had large breakouts to significant levels will be analyzed. This week I received a request to private messages to analyze eurusd I usdcad.
EURUSD Fundamental analysis After a failed attempt to break above, eurusd dropped and broke some of the most important support. On the side of fundamental analysis, we had several important data in the EU positive thing is that the re…
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Sennna88 avatar
Sennna88 20 Apr.

Very informative article. Great level to watch!

Govagent avatar
Govagent 25 Apr.

Thanks 4 the info buddy ^_^

s_amira avatar
s_amira 23 May

Very good job!

Tach avatar
Tach 26 May

good analyse

orto leave comments
In this series of articles I have idea to put major currency pairs on analysis for week which are behind us and give some forecast for week ahead. To be useful for all traders in this series of articles I will try to summarize all important information about trading some major pairs. That will include most relevant events which happened and which will happen in next week on the fundamental side. On the technical side I will provide some charts with some technical tools which all traders use : moving average, fibonacci levels, trendlines and channels, support and resistance line. On the end of analysis I will write some mine predictions on that currency pair which can be bullish, bearish or neutral. In hope to articles be useful for all Dukascopy community and traders in community I will be in response on comment section where I will give answers on all questions. Every week I will publish article in this series of Weekly Forex Outlook articles and on every article I give detailed analysis on two currency pairs. Every member can in comment section ask or give proposal of which currency pair analyze next week.
Fundamental analysis
On the fundamental side in the last week we …
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NORDTYT avatar

Используя вашу статью, можно добиться хороших результатов в торговле на данном рынке. Удачи вам.

tdbatinkov avatar
tdbatinkov 23 Apr.

very good analysis

Yuliya_N avatar
Yuliya_N 27 Apr.

Thanks for useful information!

fxsurprise8 avatar

short-term this has been the winning play

s_amira avatar
s_amira 23 May

So informative article! Thanks, it was interesting to read.

orto leave comments

Trend is your friend
- every trader knows this golden rule for consistent profits . It simply means to trade in the direction of the present trend until it shows signals to be at its end .
No matter of the used Time Frame , every financial instrument is in one of this two modes : Range or Trend .
- Range - this is a congestion , no movement in a particular direction for long period of time .
- The opposite - a Trend is a big movement in any direction for relatively short time period .
The most simple and accurate method to identify those conditions are Lines of Support and Resistance , Trend Lines and the Price Channel .
A trend starts with break out of the previous Trend Line ( or Support / Resistance Line ) .
At the present , for NZD / USD ( TF 1 W ) this is Previous Upward Support Trend Line (1) broken out in 2014 . Since that moment , the price have been in Downward Trend Mode .
The Price stays in its Downward Price Channel (2) , and its Momentum even gets stronger and stronger .
In this Downward Price Channel (2) , also there are moments of Impulsive Movements , followed by local Congestions . The Price makes To…
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avava avatar
avava 25 Feb.

very interesting!

vanvan avatar
vanvan 25 Feb.

good money

BeautybyLesya avatar

Great job!

tdbatinkov avatar
tdbatinkov 27 Feb.

Thanks my BeautybyLesya

Eldar avatar
Eldar 18 Mar.

хорошая работа

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Photo: -Stuart Miles
Long-term Fall
The EUR/USD has been tumbling down since April 2014 when it started it’s longterm downward trend. It has dropped from the level of almost 1.40 to a lowest level since 2003 reaching 1.0460 in March 2015. This is a drop of over 33%!
Even though the crisis of 2007/2008 originated in the US mortgage and derivative assets markets it quickly spread through the interconnection of many financial institutions and hit the Eurozone economy quiet hard. After the financial crisis of 2007/2008 the Eurozone was hit by the sovereign debt crisis at the end of 2009. Several countries had to be bailed out in order to fulfill their debt obligations and not to have a detrimental effect on the European economy which was just coming out of the previous crisis.
The massive selloff of the euro which took place in 2014 was due partly to the deteriorating economic situation in the Eurozone or to be more precise the stagnation and nonimprovement of the economic situation. However it wasn’t the only reason. This depreciation was further fueled by the decisions of the Fed to scale back and finally bring to a halt in October 2014 the longlasting quan…
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Agnessa26 avatar

Good job

WallStreet6 avatar

Today finally an agreement was reached between Greece and it's creditors. Greece obliged itself to implement reforms which previously were put down by the people in a referendum. In return Greece will receive over 80 billion euros in long term financing.
The reaction of the EUR/USD currency pair was- DEPRECIATION
I thought that it will appreciate if a resolution to the situation is found which won't be Greek default. I guess the market has already priced in this scenario. Or did the market percieve this outcome as less positive than a default of Greece- I don;t think so.

WallStreet6 avatar

With no doubt the markets were tired with this topic and with this out of the way at least for a couple of months (until the elections in Greece), the markets should concentrate more on the current economic situation in the Eurozone.

SalviLeana avatar
SalviLeana 30 July

Well done

WallStreet6 avatar

The EUR/USD has closed July just below the 1.10 level. It is nowhere near parity, however I think that reaching parity level is still very probable this year. The Greek debt situation seems to be resolved as an agreement has been met. However, time will show whether the compulsory reforms will be implemented. Thus, a political risk still exists as the elections in Greece in a couple of months will show whether there is political will to continue implementing the adequate reforms. 

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In my previous article, I outlined the key themes overriding the FX markets for the beginning and covered a few currencies. In this piece I will look at the remaining currencies.
AUD outlook
The Aussie is possibly one of the most interesting currencies to watch throughout 2015. With so much going on, the AUD stands to have quite a volatile year.
Many of the key drivers of the AUD are expected to have sizeable shifts next year such as US interest rates, or Chinese growth and given so many variables it will be very difficult to have a prediction for the AUDUSD in 1 year time.
Negative factors for the year ahead are as such. Looking at the 5 year real yield, we can see a strong and tight fit to the AUDUSD
With higher US rates, and higher market risks (and volatility), the AUD's yield pick-up becomes less and less attractive.
Furthermore, Weak Chinese demand has led to far far lower demand in the construction sector in the domestic economy. This can be clearly reflected in the decline in Iron ore prices (below) which are down some 40% in 2014 and has a less than promising outlook for 2015.
However it's not all bad for the Aussie. Lets consider for a minute we are a large (non-US) real …
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foreignexchange avatar

Good Job

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As we head into 2015, a few themes dominate the FX market and they will have substantial impacts on to currencies
  • Firstly, Oil prices will play a hefty role in determining monetary policy, as well as inflation expectations. So far this year, Oil is down some 36%

  • Secondly, the market is still underpricing US hikes... now we may see a change to the fundamentals, but as it stands the US rate market is still way of the pace of the Fed and Taylor rule estimates Looking at each currency bloc in turn we can see the potential moves.

GBP outlook
Near term risks for GBP are on the downside as remaining bulls capitulate with the weakening inflation picture. The basing of inflation would mark the low in market rate expectations and set the GBP base as well.
A potentially doubly hung parliament adds to well flagged uncertainty around May’s General Election. Investors don’t see any positive outcomes for GBP, with a Labour majority/coalition bad for business and Conservative majority/coalition raising prospects of Brexit.
When we look at risks going forward, the options space is pricing in some interesting moves for next may... if we look back to the scottish referendum it is far less signific…
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ostin avatar
ostin 12 Dec.


mimuspolyglottos avatar

Thanks Adrian. Good material for a discussion as always. In general, Q1  is quite simple to trade if we could escape sell-off in stocks. Some political tensions emerge in Achilles' land again and I will be really suprised if it sets the fire across the south. During low liquidity conditions several pairs could really overshoot and give us a chance to capitalize on it. I expect currencies exposed to energy export will find a bottom and be attractive at future valuations again in 1Q,  still not sure if they'll be reversal against USD. 

fullmoon avatar
fullmoon 17 Dec.

Where did you took all those nice looking charts from? The first screenshot looks like Bloomberg, but the last 4?

khalidamassi avatar

nice to read.

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Many of the
major pairs in the currency market have been at crucial crossroads for the past
few days as they have yet to provide us with a clear direction for the month of
July. Some have been moving sideways ever since the end of the recent 2-month
period of risk-aversion that benefited the Yen and the US Dollar, while others
have reversed this trend in sync with the recent return of risk-appetite. As I
examine some of these currencies, we will notice that their direction will
depend on what takes place at major technical turning points.
The direction
that these and other pairs will take this month will also determine the choice
of trades that I will make as part of my goal to be Dukascopy’s Trader of the
Month for July. My strategy will involve trading several 100 - Pip moves in the
direction of the major trends across several currency pairs.
After the large
breakout from consolidation in May that led to gains for the USD, the currency
has now settled above the major support line of the Monthly Chart´s Pennant.
The Daily Chart had begun to rally from this area and even broke the downtrend
line that had defined the previous trend, but t…
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Likerty avatar
Likerty 13 July

Just would love to see deeper analysis and it would be enough for EurUsd pair

DaddyPapi avatar
DaddyPapi 15 July

ok, what sort of detail you looking for Likerty?

madihazulfiqar avatar

good luck

OneGoodTrade avatar

Keep up the good work.

DaddyPapi avatar
DaddyPapi 27 July


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