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*Estimated reading time - 6 minAbstract: This is the first part of the medium term outlook for the 3 major pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY. This analysis has three parts: the fundamental outlook , technical analysis , and the Order Flow Book Analysis (COT Charts, SWFX Sentiment Index and the Supply and Demand). Please follow my Daily Webinars in the Dukascopy Live Tv section for the Daily and Weekly Updates for this analysis."Money won't create success, the freedom to make it will." Mandela1) Fundamental Outlook.Disclaimer: Market condition change all the time and I watch the fundamentals as a trigger because sometimes the theory and the practice of the fundamentals market impact go into conflict. We can often see an important pre-news market impact.a) Unites States (USD). On Friday night, President Obama has put into action the automated spending cuts (‘sequester&rsquo . The most important question is if speculators will focus on the FED stimulus development rather than losing confidence because of the the negative economic implications of the sequester. A relief from risk aversion and downgrade potential respectively still remains in focus for the medium term.While the Feder…
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Likerty avatar
Likerty 18 Mar.

In these articles of yours I'm always looking for a conclusion section with advised entries and exits:) Maybe on part2 ? :)

khalidamassi avatar

nice work ... continue

Schaolin avatar
Schaolin 26 Mar.

nice work, good journalist :)

SpecialFX avatar
SpecialFX 28 Mar.

I look at those US yields and think to myself "one day people will say: I remember when we the 5year US bond was 0.74%" the long run they can only go up given the fiscal mess there, and quite a lot. Good article with fundamental analysis Doc, we need more of those :)

DumbAsArock avatar

As usual, "A" for effort. +1

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*Estimated reading time 5m30sAbstract: This article contains the first part of the medium term outlook for the major pairs. This brief analysis follows the usual content of my Daily Webinars in the Live TV section and has three parts: the fundamental outlook (main market movers to watch during the month of February for each pair), technical analysis (Monthly ,Weekly, Daily and 4 Hours charts and the correlated Range Bars Charts ), and the Order Flow Book Analysis (COT Charts, SWFX Sentiment Index and the Limit and Stop Orders Levels). This is a medium term analysis. The short term analysis will be updated daily in my webinars. I also present the highest probability scenarios for each pair and the correlation between time frames scenarios respectively. As I am limited to 1500 words this first part contains the analysis for EUR/USD. "Great minds have purposes, others have wishes." - Washington Irving1) Fundamental Outlook : Disclaimer: I watch the fundamentals as a trigger because sometimes the theory and the practice of the fundamentals market impact go sometimes into conflict. Also keep in mind that speculators know very well how to take advantage of a news release and that is why …
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doctortyby avatar

@citikot - Of course that now this article is not useful anymore, because it was posted at the beginning of the month of February, and we have different fundamentals now and the FED and the Italian Ellections have changed the market conditions. Maybe you should read the last article if you want to find useful data for your trading. Thank you for your opinion

citikot avatar
citikot 4 Mar.

@doctortyby It's not useful because of nature of any market analysis. Show me Your trades based on Your analysis. We are traders here. At least we want to think so ))) Analysis itself has no any value without real trade behind ;) Otherwise it's wasting of time to go through somebody's opinion without clear conclusion: where to buy or sell and where place stop-loss and take profit ;)

doctortyby avatar

@citikot - I showed the possible scenarios and trade setups in the charts. I use fix SLs based on the ATR for each pair (for example half of the ATR for the last 30 days). If you want to see my Live trades I post them in my Daily Live Tv Webinars, I use this analysis in my live trades because I also trade based on the Order Flow book analysis, but I have some secrets regarding the entry and the exits and they should remain this way in order for my strategies to keep working. It would be a pleasure for me if you could join in. Thank You

citikot avatar
citikot 6 Mar.

Please, get me right. I don't against Your analysis. But I against to post such an articles as Contest articles. Anyway it's my humble opinion. Peace...

doctortyby avatar

@citikot - Thank you again for your reply... I have a quote from the Dukascopy Team : "This contest is a wonderful tool to show your analytic skills, describe your trading techniques and share valuable trading ideas." I hope it helps :) Peace

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Abstract: The "Order Flow Book Analysis, Intraweek/ Intraday Trade Setups for the London and New York Sessions" Webminars are broadcasted daily in the Live TV section of the Dukascopy Bank, one in the morning after the London Open and the other one in the afternoon during the New York session. This series of Webminars contain a 3 part analysis (fundamental outlook, technical key-levels and the order flow book analysis) for the major pairs, precious metals and 3 cross pairs. In this article I will explain how I conduct my analysis step by step to pinpoint the importance of different market participants decisions, sentiment and intentions in the Forex Market. The case study will focus on the Eur/Usd pair, the most traded pair in the Forex Market. Introduction: As I have shown in my previous article from last month, technical and fundamental analysis are not nearly enough to generate a good entry/exit decision to build a successful trading plan and strategies. Besides the main market movers (fundamental triggers) and the technical key-levels, a trader should also watch the different types of market participants intentions, sentiment and decisions. For this issue we need the Order Fl…
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Dieselfx avatar
Dieselfx 27 Nov.

good analyse maybe u should put the technical first and then the fundamental.....your intraweek outlook should be reversed ;))

alifari avatar
alifari 27 Nov.

nice article

Milani avatar
Milani 29 Nov.

Very interesting

egidijus avatar
egidijus 29 Nov.

Good article.

ELENA_M avatar
ELENA_M 30 Nov.

A good writing style and interesting topic, I will be expected of continue.

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Abstract: The technical and fundamental analyses usually reflect the price movement in the Order Flow. In order for the Market Price to move, for a certain trading instrument, at a certain moment, the participants (buyers and sellers) have to execute enough orders to consume the liquidity at the best Bid or Ask offer. The behaviour of the market participants can be determined by the Order Flow (market orders, limit and stop orders) generated by the other traders. In the first part of this article I will present some general aspects of the order flow and how it can be used in trading with the help of the existing tools from Dukascopy. In the second part I will make a few order flow book tool proposals for Dukascopy Bank. Part 1 - General aspects of the Orders Flow Analysis.Definition 1: An open order is an order to a broker to buy or sell a currency at a certain price whenever that price becomes available. Theoretically, such an order is standing indefinitely until either the currency is bought or sold at the specified price or the investor cancels the order. (source Financial Dictionary)Definition 2: An order book is the list of orders (manually and electronically) that a trading…
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OneGoodTrade avatar

You are getting the hang of it. Your webminars are constantly improving as well as your English skills. Doing more presentations, 2 hours each is not an easy job... if you keep improving like this soon I might see you on Bloomberg or MoneyChannel. Thank you for informative and educative webminars.

ecoplace avatar
ecoplace 28 Oct.

extreme think , i wish you success

SmithJr avatar
SmithJr 29 Oct.

Nice article Doctortyby. Keep the good work!

PPandM avatar
PPandM 30 Oct.

Good webinar hope to see more articles from you! +1

marius24 avatar
marius24 30 Oct.

Bro hope you will return on first wrote a great article and deserve to be the best this month. It is important to know about orders flow in taking decisions with high volume. Just good luck

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