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1、外强中干
  • 拥有150年历史的德意志银行是和德国战后经济奇迹关系最为紧密的德国企业之一,在欧洲央行诞生之前,德银就已经在与德国央行密切合作,支撑了德国经济数十年的稳步增长。
  • 德意志银行总资产1.64万亿欧元,但是其总负债达到了1.58万亿欧元,也就是说只有600亿欧元的净资产;看似巨大,但是只要负债稍有变动,就像外汇保证金交易一样,面临爆仓。
  • 据MarketWatch数据显示德意志银行2015年巨亏68亿欧元,系2008年俩首次出现亏损,其财务报表显示2015年营收335亿欧元,也就是说其在2015年支出大403亿欧元,更令人咋舌的是2015年,在诉讼方面的支出就达52亿欧元,较2014年上涨了151%。
  • 在2014年,金融博客Zero Hedge就在德银的2013年年报中发现,截至2013年年末,该行的衍生品持仓合计超过54万亿欧元,按当时汇价折合逾75万亿美元,是全德国GDP的20多倍,是整个欧元区GDP的5倍多。
2、四面楚歌、十面埋伏
  • 近年来德意志银行的负面消息一个接一个:丑闻、罚款、巨额亏损,数据之快,数额之大,范围之广令人目不暇接。市场上相应出现了德意志银行是雷曼兄弟第二的声音。
  • 2016年6月30日,美联储公布了2016年银行压力测试结果,德意志银行赫然在列,然而是不及格名单。
  • IMF:德意志银行是世界上风险最大的金融机构。这无异于落井下石。
  • 2016年9月16日,美国司法局对德银开出了一张140亿美金的天价罚单,随之其股价应声暴跌,真可谓屋漏偏逢连夜雨。
  • 德银成为了众多空头追逐的对象,据彭博数据显示,单2016年5月31至6月15日,德银股票的空头头寸就增加了3284555股,增幅达18.7%,净空头达5.21%。
  • 全球第三大经济体日本,抛出10万亿以刺激经济增长,带来的是日本民众抢购黄金,金银价格上涨,这对德银来讲简直就是雪上加霜。

3、重蹈覆辙还是绝处求生
  • 如果真的到了不可挽回的地步,1.58万亿欧元的债务,这个数额将是上一次金融危机雷曼兄弟债务的3倍。所引出的直接问题就是银行挤兑
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DaShik avatar
DaShik 10 Nov.

interesting to read but automatic translation stopped at the beginning of 3 point. i'll try to read till the end via google translate)

DaShik avatar
DaShik 10 Nov.

tnx for advice in the last paragraphs. i hope DB will manage to prevent fail

ak10 avatar
ak10 15 Nov.

useful chart analysis

zarina avatar
zarina 23 Nov.

interesting analysis

brilliant avatar
brilliant 24 Nov.

the language alphabet is interesting. great thank you

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13/38
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Ironically, being a slave of trading performance puts people with that mindset in a downhill movement. It’s a paradox of the financial world that in order to succeed and have the things that attracted you to the idea of having it all in the first place, you have to be humble and forget about being better than the other guy, or richer. Speaking of paradoxes, there’s something called the Omnipotence Paradox which can be very humbling once you give it some time and thought. Can an omnipotent being create a stone that’s heavy enough so this same being can’t lift it from the ground? If he can create the stone, that implies he won’t be able to lift it, and therefore he won’t be omnipotent anymore. If he can’t create it, then it’s the same principle, he’s not omnipotent. The lesson here is: there are no absolutes, especially in trading. In other words, trading is not perfect and it will never be, so stop looking for perfect answers. The Holy Grail Paradox All of this conversation and pursuit of the Holy Grail is very amusing sometimes. If you ask a professional trader at the top of his game (I did) he’ll tell you the Holy Grail is hard work. If you’re looking for some magic signal or…
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eagl avatar
eagl 6 Oct.

Good stuff. It may sound cliche but ultimately what works in trading comes really comes from within. True deserving hard work in trading is about research, development, testing and thinking about preserving your capital. A lot of traders fool themselves by looking at the market day after day and the market fools them in turn by letting them win twelve times in a row. Subsequently we all know what happens to that poor chap when the market turns bad against him.

doctortyby avatar

Emotional Intelligence also applies here.I agree with the fact that numbers don't lie and a 50% Win/Loss Ratio with a reward/risk of 3:1 can make one successful. Regarding the Ego, it makes our lives hard not just trading

SpecialFX avatar

Unfortunately, your article will probably not get much attention, because it is all text and a bit philosophical, but there is a lot of stuff here that people should pay attention to. I was reading and nodding in agreement all the time :)

Likerty avatar
Likerty 30 Oct.

First part of the article was really sensational just later fell in to usual and already heard things, but still it is one of the best articles on the matter taht I read here in DUkas contests!

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5/100
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Trading GOLD on FX-trading platform or market, is NOT SAME as trading one currency (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY).
 
It's a little bit more SIMPLE.
 
That is good for you!
 
Why?
 
Because, we can make some comparison with free market of gold. Gold is a metal, people like it, industry like it, investors like it. At this moment, we have GLOBAL financial crisis, or at least in Europe we have it! There is practically no one investing in real estate, stocks are falling from the sky, deposits in banks are LOW.
 
Where should we invest our money? Where should or could invest money Asia, South America, India?
 
There are two or three currencies to invest to, but CHF for example was so getting so strong, that the Swiss National Bank lift the price of EUR/CHF to 1.2. Now it is not so effecitve to invest in this currency.
 
OK, here we have GOLD. We know, that this is a great way to invest. So we buy gold. The price is going to the sky. For the last 3 years, the price was going up in a nice manner. On the magical value of 1.900 $ for one ounce, the price made a correction. 21 % if we are counting!?
 
If you would check on the internet for articles about production cost for 1 ounce of gold, you …
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lolka1 avatar
lolka1 29 Dec.

Nice hammer on daily today forming.

Boris avatar
Boris 30 Dec.

GOLD CRASHED LIKE A ROCK

hakala avatar
hakala 30 Dec.

@ Boris: How far down you think it will go? If you add 20 % to your assumption, you have the perfect reason to buy and to put SL under your assumption. But you never know how far down will it go, therefore, you can not do long SELL.

musmus avatar
musmus 30 Dec.

It is not good to buy gold now.

musmus avatar
musmus 30 Dec.

Gold is great opportunity to earn a lot of money.Some are seling gold to other and live on commissions.Smal money.Others trade gold and earn big bucks.Live long and prosper to trade like big boy do.

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17/94
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Warning: this article is NOT about trading plans, golden systems, reasonable money management, psychology of trading and most of all quitting.  Only constructive, cold analysis for better understanding of matter. Forex market attracts many young, ambitious minds filled with dreams. They all are lured by illusion of quick gains. They read somewhere that majority of people lose on forex market and they think “Not me, I ‘am not majority, I’ am going to show them!”.  But after couple of months of excitement learning, after testing hundreds of strategies and blowing deposit couple of times the illusion is starting to blur out. They are starting realize that this is not that easy as it was looking at the beginning. Now, how people are achieving proficiency and success in any category of life? They are practicing, practicing, practicing. They make mistakes, learn from them and then practice some more. Ok, but why forex trading is so distinguish from others disciplines? The cost of mistake. The success is useless, because it teaches us nothing. Mistakes in other hand brings us value experience from which we can learn,  that way we can develop our skills and make progress. But different …
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doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 13 Sep.

If you don't make mistakes, Success is just luck, and sooner or later turns against you.
Good Luck, My friend, +1

Iraklitos avatar
Iraklitos 13 Sep.

Good article. The problem in ForEx though is that there is no easy way to measure what is a mistake, so that to learn from it.

Livornese avatar
Livornese 13 Sep.

Some food to the brain! Good points!

amerfx86 avatar
amerfx86 14 Sep.

very good article :-)

Blackberry avatar
Blackberry 15 Sep.

Very nice article :)

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