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This question is not just about the participants in the FOREX market, but also the question of anyone interested in the vehicle. Every morning, you hear the words "oil prices rise, oil producing countries have reduced production." But how can we forecast the increase or decline in oil prices?
Oil, Gas, Gas, Plastic
  • The underground wealth of oil does not have an irreversible particle. Regardless of the place of the earth, man always seeks to acquire this wealth of nature. Crude oil, produced as crude oil, is subsequently marketed into a variety of industrial products. The most important factor in price changes in retail sales is crude oil.Factors Affecting Crude Oil Prices
  • The main factors affecting the crude oil prices are: Increase in demand for energy in the world, production capacity of oil producers, political and social changes in oil extracted areas, wars and natural disasters.
Territory prejudice
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FXRabbit avatar
FXRabbit 9 Oct.

Excellent Article!!

RahmanSL avatar
RahmanSL 9 Oct.

Good analysis

Lovely_bee avatar
Lovely_bee 12 Oct.

Good work

BIGBO avatar
BIGBO 12 Oct.

Good article!

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The recent fall in oil prices is causing a downturn in stock markets all over the world.
Oil companies facing negative balance sheets are being pushed into labour force cuts and to delay future investments.
Times are also though for US shale oil producers. They have once deposited hopes that Saudi Arabia could bring some balance to the market. After the latest “freezing” negotiation developments, their last hopes might have completely vanished. Reporting Ellen R. Wald, [1] Modern Trader Magazine columnist:
Saudi Arabia can produce a barrel of oil at a cost of about $2. Even the best shale producers cannot produce a
barrel of oil for less than $50 a barrel. (...)

OPEC is not coming to bail out the shale oil producers. (...)

Saudi Arabia does not feel their pain (...) [it] may even welcome these minor inconveniences (...) [moving national]
economy towards some diversification.

Times are tough for shale producers and bankruptcies and asset sales are increasing. (...) Any relief producers
thought would come (...)
has not materialized.

OPEC member Saudi Arabia and non-OPEC Russia reached a principle of agreement on February 16th to freeze oil production at January's levels. Joining the Saudi[/moving][/it][/1]…
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wisdom_consultant avatar

very nice article! thank u!

EliasOmar avatar
EliasOmar 22 Mar.

well done bro ..

art_Alena avatar
art_Alena 24 Mar.

very good article!

angelina_may avatar

i like your pictures))

Olkiss70 avatar
Olkiss70 31 Mar.

good article!

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1.0 "Paradoxical" trends
The string of bad data from China and a drop in oil prices returned gold from safe investment harbor in uncertain times.
After three years of losses, gold has strengthened since the beginning of the year more than eight percent, becoming the best the investment in this year globally. An ounce of gold last week reached a price of 1,155.30 US dollars, the highest level since 29 October, and analysts believe that the best is yet to come.
Since the developments on the financial markets by buying and selling their causes people who are by nature emotional and often irrational, the value of all financial instruments has always exaggerated rise or fall.
With the advent of the financial crisis and much greater interference of states and central banks in the developments in the stock markets, there was a new phase of the irrationality of financial markets and the seemingly paradoxical situation. Suddenly, the good news construed as bad, and bad news as good. At any news about the correction of the economic situation in the US, stocks around the world began to fall sharply as investors felt that the growing likelihood of termination massive injection of money into th…
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shekhasi avatar
shekhasi 28 Feb.

what will be in next week with GBP ? Any ideas?

nahimkha avatar
nahimkha 28 Feb.

Excellent job.

khalidam avatar
khalidam 28 Feb.

well done

hossainis avatar
hossainis 29 Feb.

Nice work

Olkiss70 avatar
Olkiss70 29 Feb.

great article! good luck!

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В последнее время стало модным писать о конкурсе фундаментального анализа, поэтому хочу вставить свои «5 копеек». Многие участники сообщества периодически высказывают предположение, что временной промежуток в 10 минут слишком мал, чтобы в полной мере повлиять на движение соответствующей валютной пары.
В этой статье приведены результаты небольшого исследования, призванного выяснить - так ли это на самом деле?
Особенности подбора данных для исследования
Вначале из экономического календаря были взяты наиболее значимые события за 2016 г.
Затем изъяты следующие типы новостей:
  • Новости, эффект которых нельзя измерить математически или не дающие мгновенного влияния на валютные пары (выступления глав центробанков, финансовых чиновников, протоколы заседаний комиссий по денежно-кредитной политике и т.п.);
  • События, актуальные значения которых совпали с прогнозами аналитиков (в основном, процентные ставки, ВВП, различные индексы инфляции);
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Nihad avatar
Nihad 29 Feb.

@Olkiss The whole idea is just like the PMI can tell us, that the future for GBPNZD is up, so can your analysis

Nihad avatar
Nihad 29 Feb.

Olkiss70  I hope you get my idea, but please take this idea of yours one step higher, to a LEADING DIRECTION indicator, where news only reveal the intentions of the big market players.

Olkiss70 avatar
Olkiss70 29 Feb.

thank you, Nihad... my english is not good enough to understand everything you wrote ))  I will read it again later

Nihad avatar
Nihad 29 Feb.

Olkiss70 I just thought these comments would help for now :), tomorrow is another day :) WINK, good luck buddy

Olkiss70 avatar
Olkiss70 29 Feb.

thank you, Nihad :)

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1. Fast-growing oil reserves
US commercial oil reserves have broken all records in the past year. The volume of oil storages in the United States reached a 80-year-old top-level of 490 million barrels. They then declined slightly in the middle of summer, but the end of the year and increased again in December, has already exceeded the figure of 490 million barrels per day. And now, the oil reserves of the United States remains the highest in the world.
2. All of increasing OPEC production
The cartel began to exceed its own quota in November 2014. Since then, OPEC production rose by more than 1 million barrels a day. Production growth was recorded mainly in Iraq (plus 900 thousand. - 1 million barrels per day) and Saudi Arabia (plus 600 thousand barrels per day). The December meeting of OPEC caused a new fall in oil prices. And with the return on Iranian oil market, OPEC production in 2016 will rise further.
3. Slow down the Chinese economy
China has been the main driver of growth in oil demand last decade. But in 2015, China's economy is cracking, GDP growth slowed down, and across Asia began to spread fears of global instability. And then on the stage appeared quietly India. In t…
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al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 29 Jan.

Useful content, nicely explained and very well written!

tdbatinkov avatar
tdbatinkov 31 Jan.

interesting conclusions

Alisitas avatar
Alisitas 9 Feb.


Sharpshooter avatar

Жаль, что не на русском((

Alivio avatar
Alivio 25 Feb.

нужно учить английский пригодится)

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1.0 Introduction
Fuel prices are falling in recent months. CAD trading forex pairs (CAD is inversely correlated with the price of Oil) as well as Oil in recent weeks are in the strongest trend in the last 10 years. Some experts predict that the price of "black gold" in the coming period could fall below $ 20 a barrel. In this case, analysts estimate, many countries have to stop production.
As we know, the price of oil is based on supply and demand. Despite claims that oil demand falls, data from the International Energy Agency show that she, on the contrary, is growing. But the scope of supply growing faster than demand, and there is a major problem.
Figure 1: Huge drop in Oil price since June 2014. From $115 in 2011 till $28 in 2016.
2.0 The impact of oil prices on certain global manufacturer
Today I heard more interesting news which can influence on Oil price. The Iranian Oil Ministry has ordered today that oil production in the country increased by 500,000 barrels a day. This decision was made after the European Union lifted sanctions on Iran in accordance with the nuclear agreement reached six months ago, after the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that Tehran…
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nahimkha avatar
nahimkha 28 Jan.

Nice analysis

khalidam avatar
khalidam 28 Jan.

good article. next time please describe prediction for gold.

hossainis avatar
hossainis 29 Jan.

USD/CAD and Oil - nice correlation.great work

albertpip avatar
albertpip 29 Jan.

Excellent article & setup.

pipericky avatar
pipericky 29 Jan.

34.4 is strong resistance for Oil. I ll be flat.

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I in this article will try to show the example graphs of correlation and a forecast of the Russian ruble.
Why oil and the ruble should/can be connected? Briefly, the model is this: the exporters sell their oil for dollars and then sell dollars to get rubles for settlements within the country. The mechanism is extremely simplified, it is necessary to consider the volume of production and sale that escort is not only oil exporters do not always sell dollars on the currency exchange rate impact of Central Bank interventions, etc. Nevertheless, we assume that the model more or less work, i.e. that there are fundamental reasons for the relationship of oil prices and the ruble.
Oil Light daily chart
Russian Ruble daily chart

Both graphs give a real idea of the correlation between the price of crude oil and the ruble.
On average this correlation is in the range 0,75-0,97

Figure: did you make a wish?

Investment idea is to catch the moment when the market formed a relatively clear strengthening of oil prices on the ruble.

From time to time the market there are some inefficiencies when a barrel of oil in rubles begins to decline. Much of this market process, because the supply and demand f…
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massimoscalas avatar

Excellent Alivio: very interesting analisis

Natali_Niyazova avatar

хорошо написано, мне нравится твой слог!)

Olga18375 avatar
Olga18375 28 Jan.

Отличная! Понятна и интересная статья! Так держать

Sharpshooter avatar

Наталья, а ты хорошо знаешь английский?) Везуха( А мне кажется, что для меня переводчик потеряет этот слог((

Alivio avatar
Alivio 25 Feb.

хорошо что переводчик есть удобно сделали)

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Последние 2 года стали трудными для нефти, вернее для стран-экспортеров нефтепродуктов. Цена на черную жижу упала почти в 3 раза. Предложение увеличилось за счет США (см. рис. 1). Добыча нефти в других странах осталась в прежнем объеме. Спрос остался прежним. И вот, казалось, нефть нащупала свое дно, почти все аналитики предрекали разворот, среднегодовую цену в 60-70$ за баррель на 2016 год - не тут то было. США подсунули России очередную свинью сделали очередной шаг в сторону демократии и свободного рынка - сначала сняли санкции на экспорт нефти с Ирана, затем под самый конец года отменили эмбарго на экспорт американской нефти. И вот результат - WTI поровняло себе BRENT в цене; США впервые за 40 лет отправили нефть на экспорт в Европу, а Иран впервые за 5 лет получил европейские деньги за нефть.

Рис. 1. Добыча нефти в США и число нефтяных и газовых скважин

Фундаментальная картина

Фундаментальный фон для цен на нефть мягко сказать неблагоприятный. Большинство аналитиков теперь видят среднегодовой уровень цен BRENT как и WTI на уровне 35-50$, при том, что никто не исключает кратковременного падения до 30$ и даже 25$. Впрочем находятся фантасты, которые говорят и о 20$ з…
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tdbatinkov avatar

This is a really informative article

MrLOSS avatar
MrLOSS 7 Jan.

Thanks for the comment, but in fact it does not contain any new information and was written solely for 5,000 ducats.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 10 Jan.

Thorough analysis and great explanation, well done!

9jakas avatar
9jakas 11 Jan.

Nice work

wisdom_consultant avatar

good work

orto leave comments
Petróleo Barato, antesala de recesión mundial o final de la 3ª revolución industrial?
Mis comienzos en el Trading, se centraron en la operativa del petróleo, su precio se determina por multitud de factores, pero los más importantes son: oferta y demanda, el valor del dólar USD y el sentimiento de mercado. Este último factor es generado por la reacción de los participantes, provocando variaciones en el precio a corto plazo, el motivo es la percepción de obstáculos o mejoras en el flujo de entrega o producción de petróleo. El sentimiento de mercado es el que produce la volatilidad en el mercado y donde buscaba oportunidades para entrar diariamente, en principio use como indicadores técnicos, CCI y Bandas Bolinger, pero con el paso del tiempo me aficione a usar ICHIMOKU, que es el que utilizo actualmente con muy buena satisfacción. Con la información obtenida del mercado de petróleo, operaba también cruces de forex donde el dólar canadiense estuviese presente, debido a la vinculación que existe.
Estrategia Trading: En mis operativas uso el indicador ICHIMOKU (9,26,52) en gráficos Diaro y 4 Horas, a fin de apoyarme en las decisiones uso como oscilador RSI 9 Opero en Compra cuando obse…
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taimasik avatar
taimasik 30 Dec.

thanks for it))

SalviLeana avatar

good !

Bernny avatar
Bernny 12 Jan.

nice job

GammaBurst avatar
GammaBurst 19 Jan.

We should be preparated to a new big global crisis on 2016, and if this will occurs, it should be the end of the euro.

MaziarE avatar
MaziarE 24 Jan.


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I find it useful to look at the big picture from time to time. In technical analysis terms, that usually means inspection of weekly and/or monthly charts. However, I rarely get to see analysis of "ultra-high" timeframe charts, so I decided to make a couple of attempts of my own. Previously, I analysed long term charts of the Euro, the Yen, the Cable and the Swissie.
Today I'll have a look at yearly and quarterly Loonie charts that are covering the period from 1971 to 2015. While the yearly may be of some use for a quick overview of price action, the quarterly chart offers more detail and makes trends, ranges and patterns more easily observable. I will be focusing on the latter for my analysis.
Yearly Chart
Quarterly Chart
Broken Trendline
One of the first things that I noticed on the chart is the upward sloping channel that the pair traded in from 1971 to 2003. The channel bottom (trendline) was broken in 2004 and has been acting as a resistance since. It capped the pair in 2008 and 2009 and I expect it to continue to play that role, should the pair meet it in the future. The trendline is currently centered around 1.3750.
Fibonacci Retracements
I re…
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Milian avatar
Milian 1 Dec.

Good article!

al_dcdemo avatar

yellownight Thank you! I just started to write articles - I takes me plenty time to put together an article that I'm happy with but I guess I'll improve over time. Re Loonie: volatility in the pair has been great since oil started to slide.

al_dcdemo avatar

VictoriaVika Thank you very much!

al_dcdemo avatar

fxsurprise8 Agreed :) And I don't think we have seen the bottom yet.

al_dcdemo avatar

Thanks to all for your great comments!

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Diversify Everything!
When most traders hear the words diversify, they think of adding more instruments to their portfolio, more and different stocks, bonds from different countries etc. But diversification goes a lot further then this and can take on many forms. Ever thought about adding bitcoin or other non-traditional financial instruments? How about trading a losing system? Even that can make you money in the long run. In this article we’ll go over just some of the ways you can diversify and the benefits of this process.
1. Diversify Across Different Forex Pairs
Let’s start with the lower hanging fruit first. If you have a profitable trading system, test it on other forex pairs. If the system is solid, it will work similarly on other currencies as well. Let’s take a look at a simple trend following system in the Euro. The picture below shows the daily EUR/USD chart with applied 50 and 200 period simple moving averages. The 50 SMA is in red, while the 200 SMA is blue.
When the 50 SMA closes below the 200 SMA, this is called the ‘Death Cross’’. It’s generally considered a bearish trading signal, meaning more losses are likely to follow. The Euro gave out this signal in the su…
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KATRIN_90 avatar

хорошая работа)

Margoshka avatar


helenaExpert avatar

nice article!

Lyolichka_Voloshina avatar

очень хорошо написано!

BeautybyLesya avatar

Great article!

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The relationship between currency and other financial markets

Financial markets price movement prediction is successful trading basis. And Experienced traders know, that trading the currency market requires not only knowledge of the forex area. Currency price movement depends not only on macroeconomic developments and other economic news, but also from other financial instruments movement.
Trader, knowing that the currency with which the market is concerned, can predict some of the forex market movements before they happen. To lead in this game and make more informed trading decisions, you need to carefully monitor the related markets.
Stock indices

Stock indices review can provide lots of information about market sentiment, which is very useful to the trader. Market sentiments shows, how comfortable feels market trader. The more you trust it, the more willing to take risks. In general, stock indices upwards when the market sentiment is positive - or, in other words, risk tolerance - and decreases when the mood is negative - or avoid risk.
Assessing the market sentiment, traders analyze these stock indices: S & P500, Nasdaq100 and Dow Jones Industrial Average the United States, D…
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Ticker avatar
Ticker 20 Mar.

thanks you all!

missanzhelika avatar

Great job! Very informative!

pthstr avatar
pthstr 22 Mar.

good article, could be even better with pictures!

Ticker avatar
Ticker 30 Mar.

goo luck all at this contest! thanks pthstr

astropata2 avatar
astropata2 22 Apr.

good article! Sorry I didn't look earlier....

orto leave comments
On December 15th, at midnight, the Russian Central Bank held an emergency meeting. The currency was in free fall, caused by a deadly mix of lower oil prices and western sanctions. The Rouble lost almost 50 percent of its value in four short months. On December 15th, the USD/RUB closed the day at 65.82, a massive 15 percent higher in a single day. Something had to be done.
The Russian Central Bank decided to hike interest rates by a shocking 650 basis points, from 10.5% to 17%. ‘’We had a choice between the very bad and the very, very bad’’, Sergei Shvetsov, the deputy governor of Bank would later say.
A Flash From the Past
I woke up that day staring at a 10% gain in the Ruble. The USD/RUB was now quoted at 59.50. After a quick double-take and a check on Bloomberg, I realize the reason behind the rally. But as everyone was busy buying Rubles, I got a flashback of Black Wednesday 1992. During most of 1992 Britain was busy propping up the Pound in order to keep it within the boundaries set by the ERM (Exchange Rate Mechanism). After spending massive amounts of money, the Bank of England took one last desperate step.
On September 16th 1992 at 11:00 AM, the BOE jacked up …
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Convallium avatar
Convallium 27 Jan.

wonderful article! I sometimes trade with usd/rub

fxsurprise8 avatar

During the weekend Russia intensified its offensive in Ukraine. A shelling that killed 30 civilians in Mariupol sparked new calls for sanctions in Brussels. The EU called an extraordinary meeting of foreign ministers for Thursday but analysts think that there will be no new sanctions until next month summit. A lot will depend on how far Putin goes this time. An all out attack on Mariupol will no doubt lead to further US/EU sanctions.

I got again long USD/RUB on Monday anticipating the reaction of the West. Near the end of day I got a present by S&P, which downgraded Russia's debt to junk.

fxsurprise8 avatar

Here are some links as well as a picture of my most recent trades. Sorry for the poor formatting, Dukascopy automatically places everything at the top.

Again my total loss is limited to just $100. My stoploss is set at 62.60, just below the most recent swing low in the pair. My target is above the December highs in the USD/RUB, around 77.80. I will watch price action if we reach these levels and look for an exit. As you can see on the pic, I'm currently up $50.

fxsurprise8 avatar

Another update: The Ruble selling intensified on Friday after the Russian Central Bank unexpectedly cut interest rates from 17% to 15%. This prompted me to add another position of 2,000 on a break of the important 70.00 round figure.

Initially the trade went in my favor as the USD/RUB rallied to a high of 71.87 on Friday. The pic above was taken near the highs of the day. But as the day was nearing its end, the jump in oil prices led to gains in the Ruble and I was forced to close my new 2,000 position at 70.52 for a small gain of $12.

fxsurprise8 avatar

Final update on my January Ruble trades. The rally in oil continues unabated after a Friday report that showed the number of U.S. oil-drilling rigs down by 94 in the past week, the largest one-week decrease since 1987. As the black gold was preparing to break the important 50.00 mark, I placed a stoploss on my two remaining USD/RUB longs at 68.30.

I was taken out later in the day, for a net profit of $64.50. Together with my earlier closed trade of $12.13, the total for this series of trades is at +76.63. You can see all 3 trades in the pic above.

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The major macroeconomic factors, defining currency exchange rate are discussed. Correlation between oil prices and current account balance for Canada is outlined. An“abnormal” state of futures market, known as “backwardation”, is described. An indispensable feature, signifying minimum in oil prices, is proposed as a corollary. Further dynamics of the Canadian dollar is discussed.
It is ubiquitously acknowledged that the main driving forces behind currency dynamics, absent the Central Bank interventions, are interest rates spreads as well as current account and capital account balances. Provided that the former parameter is negligibly small or kept unchanged for long period of time, the importance of the latter parameters increases.
When commodity price holds the key to currency exchange rate
Canada is a perfect case of a country that developed commodity oriented economy. Advantages as well as drawbacks of so lopsided economical structure are simple to grasp – current account as well as capital account balances (see fig. 1 and fig. 2) become prone to the vicissitudes of world demand for a certain raw material. This high demand might be invoked by legitimate growth of ec…
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Irishka456 avatar
Irishka456 29 Sep.

Полезная информация. Вы молодец

ANABEVZ avatar


HelgaPehkel avatar

I really have read this, not just put like, but i even do not know what to say, this is not my topic, i am too far from CAD and oil

Polinka avatar
Polinka 1 Oct.

many questions cause confusion...

Olga18375 avatar


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____________________________________________________________________________________Introduction:In this article, I am going to examine a variety of commodities, both short and long term outlooks and rational for the moves that we have seen across a wide spectrum of commodities from; energies andprecious metals.____________________________________________________________________________________ Precious Metals:Silver - Silver has been very volatile in 2013 so far and very volatile recently, having started the year at $30.20/oz it rose to a high of $32.48/oz before coming down hard currently at $26.75/oz (4th April). This drop equates to around an 18% fall in the precious metal since mid-January highs.This drop can be seen in the chart below. While this shows the price action for the past few years it is clear that silver has dropped off a cliff in the past few weeks.Silver daily chart, JForexHowever what is most evident is the large support level where XAG/USD has bounced 3 times previously. While, it cannot be shown as an exact price, you can see the rectangle area of support ranging from $26.10 - $26.40 / oz. There is noted demand at this level, and depending on when you are read…
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Delossan avatar
Delossan 8 Apr.

Agree. Good articele +

Efegen avatar
Efegen 10 Apr.

I believe QE3 did not helped much.

alifari avatar
alifari 28 Apr.

Another informative article +1

scramble avatar
scramble 29 Apr.

great inputs, as always!!

valentine avatar
valentine 29 Apr.

another great article as the one regarding BoJ and inflation

orto leave comments