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15/51
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Introduction In recent months market experienced (another time) an impact done by direct intervention by a central bank. At the end of last year, the BOJ (Bank of Japan) officially declared their intentions to start an heavy program to help the Japanese economy and to keep the Japanese Yen (JPY - their national currency) to weakens in order to favour exports. As always there are many different ways on how market participants reacts to these kind of events, and I decided to make my own study on USD/JPY cross and its main correlations to recognize which of 2 possible scenario will be more probable in next weeks: continuation or reversal? Technical Analysis Here below is USD/JPY price chart, showing last 30 years price action: From this large perspective, price can be considered very low, and if we compare the recent upward move with the whole past action, it seems just a small bounce. This actually gives me more confidence in expecting further continuation upward in next months. Here below is the same chart 'zoomed-in': From both these charts I can extrapolate 2 important key factors: 1. Price breakout of red trend-line @89.60 in January; 2. Previous important support in lower 1…
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positive avatar
positive 22 Feb.

One more excellent presentation. I do agree with you that from broader persepctive the Yen pairs have more steam. As far as USD/JPY goes I think its too expensive for the time being and the over run of last 3 months should result in a major correction. and for long term positioning I would like to buy the same anywhere around 38% retrace which happens to be 90 a big round number.

scramble avatar
scramble 22 Feb.

tks mate! yes the 90 is tasty! maybe actual main reason why the thing is holding higher >93 ;)

OneGoodTrade avatar

The correlation part is quite interesting. Nice article overall. Thanks.

scramble avatar
scramble 25 Feb.

tks OGT :) just today indeed Ni225 opened very high... breakout is near! let's see!

scramble avatar
scramble 8 Mar.

toc toc toc :D UJ > 95.00 , nikkei >12.000 and closed 12.300 or so :D

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31/51
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I think every single trader, newbie or not, tried to take advantage of Japan’s “economic recovery efforts” by shorting the yen in the last 4 months. There were so many opportunities to make good money every time Japan PM, Shinzo Abe, had something to say about his strategy to boost GDP growth.We reached now a point where the world is asking if this chosen strategy, to weaken the yen, is not dangerous for the important economies as USA, China, Europe, and others. We just had a strange statement of G7 saying “nothing” but shortly after an unidentified official said: “The G7 statement was misinterpreted! The G7 is concerned about unilateral guidance on the yen. Japan will be in the spotlight at the G20 in Moscow this weekend.” That’s even stranger if you look at the US Treasury’s Undersecretary for International Affairs, Lael Brainard, that gave the Japanese administration a nod of approval in the way they have been handling their currency situation. Are u confused ? Because this is not everything: I red today an article where I found this: “In private, the US has been pressuring Japan's new government to refrain from mentioning the yen as it attempts to revive growth and end deflatio…
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Behrooz_MB avatar
Behrooz_MB 18 Feb.

excellent :)

SpecialFX avatar
SpecialFX 21 Feb.

Well, Japan may be doing easing measures to weaken their currency, but the US has been doing that for longer with their Quantitative Easing programs, and China won't let the Yuan appreciate as it should, so basically it would be highly hypocritical of them to say anything against Japan :)

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20/51
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____________________________________________________________________________________Introduction:It will have been hard to miss the massive Global equity rally of the past few months leading to new all time highs, or highs since 2008 or so. In this article, I will travel the world looking at the major indexes across it and deciphering why they are moving the way they are. Not so much in a technical analysis way, but more of a fundamental relative value outlook.First of I will look at North American Equity and start with the Dow.____________________________________________________________________________________North AmericaIn the past few days, the Dow has reached the landmark 14,000 and shows no sign of slowing down with a not overly valued PE of 14.55 and decent Dividend yield of 2.6% Looking at a chart of the Dow Jones Industrial (DJI), it looks ripe to set a new nominal high above 14,200 Nominal DJI, Thomson ReutersThis is even more backed up by Dow Theory, with one of the main components is that the Industrial average follows the Transport average (DJT) and will follow in its footsteps. If you believe this theory then the DJI is in for a big move in the coming weeks.DJT, Thoms…
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asad avatar
asad 10 Feb.

Best article. i do it has a true prediction of the ongoing the next year price. It gives additional useful information for to be good trader. thank.

scramble avatar
scramble 18 Feb.

hey just a question: did I dream about or i saw somewhere an S&P500 chart showing price printing new highs recently? tks:)

AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 18 Feb.

I don't know if you are talking about All time highs or short term highs, but here are some charts showing 10 min chart - http://img831.imageshack.us/img831/8867/es10min.png

And also daily chart of the last 15 or so years - http://imageshack.us/a/img19/7054/esdaily10year.png

Either way its very close to highs but no trade today for US means you may have seen a chart with a bad price feed or something.

scramble avatar
scramble 18 Feb.

no i meant new all time highs. maybe i really got something wrong. was about last week. will try to remember where i saw it. maybe was not even S$P500 indeed the pattern was not the same than the one linked here, and yes today NY was closed so must wait a bit more. will be interesting to see if things will breakout. mostly DJ near the top, and nikkey also important 12.000 breakout possible. let's see :) could give quite a positive impulse. i hope!

sudink avatar
sudink 22 Feb.

The last chart tells the whole story. There is a direct co-relation between quantitative easing by the central banks and stock market rise. And the way the situation is there at the moment on the world markets, i think there is more quantitative easing coming in the future which would further boost the stock markets.

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