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Fundamentals still supportive!
Lira versus Yen did not go quite the way I had expected for November, mainly due to suprise US elections outcome. As it was not a fundamental reason for TRY or JPY, the general reaction just occured later - during the current week. 7th and 8th of december were when both lines I sketched previous month (resistance and downtrend) were succefully broken. I believed more and more that it had to happen as the situation evolved. There were no real fundamentally bad news from Turkey, except the President being against Central Bank's decisions. Finally, the negative terrorism and coup-like streak of news from Turkey seem to have ceased for a while, or even for a longer time.
We had Current Account deficit tightening to -1.68B (11 Nov), Budget Balance ameliorating to -0.1B (15 Nov, from -16.9B), most of rates in Turkey hiked on 24 Nov together with steady Manufacturing Confidence (103.7 24 Nov) and Capacity Utilization (staying 76.4% 24 Nov). On 29 Nov we have seen foreign arrivals decline stopped a little (-25.8% from -32.84%) signalling maybe a start of reversal of tourism stagnation. Trade balance also improved (-4.16B from -4.36B, 30 Nov), exports rose to …
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ak10 avatar
ak10 10 Dec.

Useful knowledge for trading.

Beto avatar
Beto 13 Dec.

Very technical and fundamental bias, really good job.
Only I think you could put at the end a very short conclusion about your theory to make it easy to all that people how do not like more even the technical analysis.
Best regards.

arjaq avatar
arjaq 13 Dec.

Beto  , what exactly do you mean? TRYJPY is not a very technical (still technicals do work here to a certain extent) pair in general, it moves basically driven by fundamentals or risk sentiment. What should a conclusion consist of here?

VictoriaVika avatar

Good luck in article contest, nice job.

k_morocco avatar
k_morocco 16 Dec.

great analysis , liked your fundamental point of view

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10/65
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1. What drives the pair?
One of the important fundamental factors driving the pair is safe haven versus yield search. We must remember though, that New Zealand is not a high risk country! This is why we can see NZDJPY going up sometimes in spite of JPY currency index going up too. Both countries are 'far' from the rest of the world and both are 'isolated' as they are 100% insular. Although initial reactions to events like Brexit make JPY or CHF appreciate against everything, after the first moments NZD and similar currencies also go up, as they give better yield while not being affected that much by general pains of economy and politics.
Let's see relevant data for both countries when it comes to trading the pair:
  • New Zealand
  1. Politics: Constitutional monarchy with parliamentary democracy. Constitution is not codified. British monarch is the head of state.
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ak10 avatar
ak10 23 Nov.

Useful method, Ito new for me.

Uliana_Alexandrova avatar

Very interesting!!!

brilliant avatar
brilliant 24 Nov.

I like those pairs too

marina2016 avatar

хорошо)

FXRabbit avatar
FXRabbit 14 Dec.

Good article!

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