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The euro fell from the high around 7 am Friday at 1.0685 all day to the low of 1.0603 after the US close—and then corrected higher by almost exactly 62% to 1.0657. . On the wider move over the last two days, a 50% retracement of the upmove would take the euro down to 1.0568.
On another analysis and what we are foresees that far faster inflation in the eurozone than the ECB expecting. Prices rise by 2% as early as Q2 and stay there for several quarters. The ECB sees only 1.7% on average in 2017 and that’s a jump from 1.1% in December. But sees the weak euro as feeding imported inflation and it won’t be a one-time thing.
Consumers are buying 9% more imported goods and services than in 2009. We all knows that the Exporters are happy to raise prices on higher demand. And the role of the euro as an invoicing currency has fallen. Here’s the turn of events: "Underestimating the significance of the exchange rate pass through will provide the hawkish members on the governing council with ammunition to force a discussion on tapering, earlier than expected as inflation creeps above staff projections.''
When we get a bit confused about the forecast, we look at the weekly chart. This time it of…
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s_amira avatar
s_amira 17 Jan.

thank you for sharing!

Yuliya_N avatar
Yuliya_N 17 Jan.

Thanks for useful information, my friend

TInna avatar
TInna 18 Jan.

very good!

hrustiashka avatar

Good article!

brilliant avatar
brilliant 25 Jan.

yes it is consolidating

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The media is going ‘crazy’ over the Chinese stock market shaving off trillions in a couple of weeks. The Chinese government meddling in the markets to save it is being compared to burning a ‘holy book’ - in that it shouldn’t have done it.
What were those communists thinking? No one ever intervenes in a free market, not even the president of the land of the free in 2008 on an interview with CNN. (Irony Intended)
Here is a video.
Listen carefully for the following:
Look. I obviously have made a decision to make sure the economy doesn't collapse. I have abandoned free market principles to save the free-market system.

This is what happened to the market after “abandoning free market principles in order to save the free market” – in the US and China.
From the above it is clear China is simply replicating what the United States did to its stock market.
The Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges are not of great interest to me. My real interest lies in the dinosaurs that lived through the 1929 stock market crash. These dinosaurs are doing great right now! Or are they?
While history repeats itself, only a few are attuned to signs of it repeating itself – the rest of us live in the moment and trus…
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pipx avatar
pipx 28 July

driven Thank you and yes, the governments’ interference in free markets will eventually lead to disaster. George W. Bush saying “I have abandoned free market principles to save the free-market system.”  was the start of interference by the government which will not stop anytime soon. Just as China did, instead of letting the markets correct themselves they will keep pumping in more money.

lelipuzik avatar
lelipuzik 29 July

wow! really interesting

Milian avatar
Milian 30 July

interesting article)))

Margoshka avatar
Margoshka 30 July


Kivetat avatar
Kivetat 31 July

good job(Y)))))))))

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Price action is the ultimate indicator. It reveals very precisely where the big bids and offers enters the market, where profit taking occurs or even – where it might happen in the distant future. Despite of technical analysis methods one chooses to use, but accurate observer might always get clues what is about to happen directly from watching price action real time and act accordingly.
Figure 1.0. See obvious price reaction to a certain area? Look for a technical level in it.
Even if the exact underlying technical reason, which stopped or reversed price movement at a particular spot is unclear, it is still possible to trade it by fallowing few basic principles of liquidity dynamics around such areas.
Some long time ago I managed to see a pattern and trade similar technical levels as I trade now, but without actually knowing the reasons behind them – just by observing price reactions and keeping my profit targets and risk limits tight (see my older article - Intraday Rhythms of EUR/USD Pair).
Price behaves differently in certain parts of the range and in certain hours of the day. It moves inertially and, incredibly, it has all the similarities to the Newton’s lows of motion. J…
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Likerty avatar
Likerty 14 May

OneGoodTrade, thats a controversial statement, like saying that alcoholic working in the bar is delta neutral in his work:) I believe, this conflict of interest in between market makers and the rest of the crowd, is the main reason why hedge funds dont speculate in FOREX markets.

Airmike avatar
Airmike 17 May

Likerty - Stop loss hunting is term for hunting of stop loss orders in order book (any type of orderbook). it is not a name for peaks or any price manipulations. retail stop loss orders have just very low amount of volume. For execution of this small amount is unreasonable to bet against other market makers and take risk from arbitrage trades. that's the point , if risk from arbitrage is x time higher than profit from stop loss hunting. stop loss hunting is possible only if ONE subject has permission for market making. not possible when many market makers compete against each other.

Airmike avatar
Airmike 17 May

Btw. I didn't understand this note about hedge funds. with full respect. I am sure that information is not a correct because hedge funds definitely do participate on FX.

Jignesh avatar
Jignesh 22 May

Good Article, very technical.  Price action seems that hardest indicator to master but the most effective.  I'm going to attend some of your webinars to learn a bit more.  Have you ever looked into Elliott Wave?

Likerty avatar
Likerty 23 May

Jignesh, Elliot Wave makes a lot of sence, just I consider it a pattern and as all the patterns - these are secondary tools in trading, not primary. Its difficult to base trade decision solely on PA paterns..

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